Transition Pathways towards a Sustainable and Carbon-
Neutral Economy in Finland by 2035 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Futures Studies 
Master’s thesis  
 
 
Author: 
Kalpani Pavithra Alahakoon Arachchige 
 
Supervisor(s): 
Prof. Petri Tapio 
Dr. Hanna Heino 
 
18.05.2025 
Turku 
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The originality of this thesis has been checked in accordance with the University of Turku quality assurance 
system using the Turnitin Originality Check service.  
  
Master’s thesis  
 
Subject: Futures Studies 
Author: Kalpani Pavithra Alahakoon Arachchige 
Title: Transition Pathways towards Sustainable and Carbon-Neutral Economy in Finland by 2035 
Supervisor(s): Prof. Petri Tapio and Dr. Hanna Heino 
Number of pages: 76 pages + appendices 4 
Date: 18.05.2025 
 
Abstract 
The planet is warming at an unprecedented rate, primarily due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) 
concentrations from anthropogenic activities that adversely impact the climate system. Climate change has 
severe manifestations, affecting human populations, ecosystems, and economies worldwide. Hence, pursuing 
alternative transition pathways for achieving carbon neutrality should be viewed not merely as a future goal 
but as a critical necessity to protect planetary health and ensure humanity’s survival. 
The aims of this study are twofold. First, to conceptualise a carbon-neutral, sustainable economy in Finland by 
2035, reflecting the preferences of economically focused green political actors; and second, to develop 
alternative transition pathways to guide future outcomes toward this preferred vision. Employing a critical and 
normative framework, the study uses Backcasting through Futures workshops to engage participants in 
envisioning preferred futures and viable transition pathways. It simultaneously cultivates future-oriented 
thinking skills among society, fulfilling one of the responsibilities of the futurist. 
The research identifies key findings, including four distinct preferred future scenarios of a carbon-neutral 
economy: ‘Silver Bullet’, a technology-driven model; ‘Progression’, emphasising resource conservation; 
‘Sustainable Dream World’, advocating for degrowth and social responsibility; and ‘Back to Nature’, 
promoting nature-based self-sufficiency. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the proposed transition 
pathways with policy measures do not adhere to a singular or linear trajectory; rather, they encompass a range 
of synergistic and interactive policy bundles, including basic income, resource taxation, and educational 
reforms.  
The discussion reviews the findings through scenario archetypes and transition archetypes in the literature, 
insights gained from Dator’s generic futures and Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework. The scenario 
archetypes establish a linkage to concepts such as “Transformation,” “Collapse,” and “Disciplined Society,” 
asserting that these preferred visions pose a challenge to the dominant growth-centric paradigm while 
advocating for a fundamental reorientation beyond conventional economic growth notions. Additionally, the 
theoretical framework of transition archetypes, drawn from the MLP, illustrates the relevance of a “Mixing 
Pathways” approach, characterised by the co-evolution of “Transformation,” “Reconfiguration,” 
“Technological Substitution,” and “De-alignment/Re-alignment.” This reflects the need for multiple pathways, 
emphasising the complex realities inherent in the pursuit of transitioning towards a carbon-neutral economy. 
 
 
Key words: Carbon neutral economy, preferred scenarios, transition pathways, Multi-Level Perspective, 
Backcasting, Futures Workshops 
  
 TABLE OF CONTENTS 
1 INTRODUCTION 7 
1.1 Background 7 
1.2 Research Aim and Research Questions 10 
1.3 Chapter Summary 11 
2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND CONCEPTS 13 
2.1 Sustainable and Carbon-Neutral Economy 13 
2.2 Backcasting for Preferred Futures 18 
2.2.1 The Backcasting Scenario Approach 18 
2.2.2 Scenario Archetypes 19 
2.3 Transition Pathways and Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) Framework 22 
2.3.1 Three Levels in MLP: Niche, Regime, and Landscape 24 
2.3.2 Archetypes of Possible Transition Pathways 26 
3 METHODOLOGY 28 
3.1 Context of Study 28 
3.2 Research Design 29 
3.3 Phases of Futures Workshops (FW) 30 
3.3.1 The Preparation Phase 31 
3.3.2 Drivers and Elements of a Sustainable Economy (FW1) 32 
3.3.3 Images of Alternative Carbon-Neutral Futures (FW2) 33 
3.3.4 Co-creating the Vision (FW3) 35 
3.4 Ethical Consideration 36 
3.4.1 Responsibility as a Futurist 36 
3.4.2 Responsibility as a Facilitator 38 
4 RESULTS 39 
4.1 Drivers and Elements of a Sustainable Economy (FW1) 39 
 4.1.1 The Results of the Applauding Phase 39 
4.1.2 The Results of the Problem Phase 41 
4.1.3 Strengthening and Solving Drivers 42 
4.2 Images of Alternative Carbon-Neutral Futures (FW2) 45 
4.2.1 A Spectrum of Futures from Present Policies on Steroids to the Silver Bullet 45 
4.2.2 A Spectrum of Futures from Regression to Progression 48 
4.2.3 A Spectrum of Futures from Planet B to Back to Nature or Sustainable Dream World 50 
4.3 Co-creating the Vision (FW3) 53 
4.3.1 Scenario Pathways from 2025 to 2035 55 
4.3.2 Suggestions for Policy Measures 56 
5 DISCUSSION 59 
5.1 Reflection on Preferred Futures for a Carbon Neutral Economy 60 
5.2 Theoretical Interpretations 63 
5.3 Reflecting on the Methodology 65 
5.4 Limitations and Suggestions 68 
5.5 A Concluding Thought 69 
REFERENCES 71 
APPENDICES 77 
Appendix 1 Agendas of the Series of Futures Workshops 77 
Appendix 2 Consent Form 78 
Appendix 3 Script for Mental Time-Travel 79 
Appendix 4 Coding of Quotes by the Participants to Safeguard Anonymity 80 
 
  
 LIST OF FIGURES 
FIGURE 1: CHANGE IN PER CAPITA CO2 EMISSIONS AND GDP (RITCHIE ET AL. 2023) 14 
FIGURE 2: MULTILEVEL PERSPECTIVE ON SOCIOTECHNICAL TRANSITIONS (GEELS & SCHOT, 2007, 401) 24 
FIGURE 3: THE ‘SILVER BULLET’ IMAGE ILLUSTRATED WITH GENERATIVE AI USING SCENARIO NARRATIVE (CHATGPT) 55 
 
 
 
LIST OF TABLES 
TABLE 1: FUTURE IMAGES BY GROUP 1 45 
TABLE 2: FUTURE IMAGES BY GROUP 2 48 
TABLE 3: FUTURE IMAGES BY GROUP 3 50 
TABLE 4: SCENARIO PATHWAYS FROM 2025 TO 2035 55 
 
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1 Introduction 
“The Earth system is under assault- the oceans, the forests, the soils, every ecosystem, 
the cryosphere- the world’s ice and snow. We [stand] on the edge of the sixth great 
Earth systems collapse unless we radically change course…The five mass extinctions of 
the past echo as a warning. The most extreme of predictions, once seen as unlikely, now 
seem all too real. And the most unlikely scenario is that nothing [catastrophic] happens. 
This is humanity’s greatest crisis.” (Dyke & Monbiot, 2024, 4.) 
1.1 Background 
Since the Industrial Revolution, significant changes have occurred in the climate system, resulting in 
global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. This change is predominantly attributed to the 
ongoing increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere (Delbeke & Vis, 2019; 
Madurai Elavarasan et al. 2022; Zitscher & Kaltschmitt, 2024.) Decades of scientific research and 
climate data indicate that the planet is warming at an unprecedented rate. The continued excessive 
consumption of fossil fuels and various human activities have adversely affected the natural climate 
system, leading to elevated concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere (Delbeke 
& Vis, 2019.) 
Climate change is currently manifesting through a range of severe impacts worldwide, as revealed by 
Delbeke & Vis (2019, 3). These impacts adversely affect human populations, natural ecosystems, and 
economic systems. Notable consequences of climate change include increased flooding, altered 
precipitation patterns, prolonged droughts, threats to water and food security (Melkonyan et al. 2019, 
145) and an increase in the frequency and intensity of forest fires. While it is widely believed that 
developing nations are particularly vulnerable to the devastating effects of climate change, scholars 
argue that Europe is also facing significant repercussions, further exacerbated by heightened 
migration pressures resulting from the climate crisis in developing regions (Delbeke & Vis, 2019; 
Firoiu et al. 2022). 
Stemming from the adverse consequences of climate change, to address its associated adverse effects, 
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has underscored the necessity of stabilising 
CO2 concentrations and other greenhouse gas emissions at sustainable levels (Zitscher & Kaltschmitt, 
2024, 1.) In response, countries around the globe have committed to collaborative efforts under the 
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, established during the World Summit in 
1992. Following this pivotal agreement, a series of initiatives and international accords have been 
instituted. The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997 and applicable to European Union (EU) member 
states, emphasises the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions (Delbeke & Vis, 2019; 
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Onofrei et al. 2022). The Paris Climate Agreement, established in 2015 and implemented in 2016, 
aims to limit the global temperature increase to no more than 1.5°C or 2°C (Delbeke & Vis, 2019; 
Kainuma et al. 2024; Onofrei et al. 2022). Moreover, the European Climate Law, enacted in 2021, 
reinforces the goals outlined in the European Green Deal, targeting climate neutrality by 2050 and a 
40% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels (Eurofound & EEA, 2023; Onofrei 
et al. 2022). 
 Some scholars have argued that, despite the presence of global initiatives aimed at promoting a 
transition towards carbon neutrality, progress towards achieving this goal by 2050 remains inadequate 
(Madurai Elavarasan et al. 2022; Maksymova et al. 2024). Another line of research indicates that, 
while the European Union (EU) has made significant strides in positioning its member states as 
leaders in environmental sustainability (Maksymova et al. 2024; Onofrei et al. 2022), these nations 
continue to be substantial contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Onofrei et al. 2022, 6) 
mainly due to excessive consumption and generation of energy in which results in significant levels 
of CO2 emissions per capita (Larsen & Alslund-Lanthén, 2017, 10-13). To address this conflict of 
interest, as several scholars suggest, the pursuit of carbon neutrality should not be regarded merely as 
a future ambition but as a critical requirement for global survival (Firoiu et al. 2022; Maksymova et 
al. 2024). Moreover, this ongoing challenge arises from fragmented and insufficient engagement 
across various sectors. Therefore, it is essential to pursue climate neutrality targets through a 
comprehensive transformation of the economy. 
 Of particular significance is the fact that Climate change represents a significant global challenge, as 
greenhouse gas emissions cross national boundaries and contribute to global warming. As scholars 
argue, while the rise in emissions presents a global dilemma, the development of effective climate 
policies designed at the global level has demonstrated great complexity. Accordingly, addressing 
climate change requires not only global strategies but also the implementation of national and local 
policies (Sivonen, 2023, 2247). In this study, Finland is considered with deliberation, reflecting the 
client’s requirements and the constraints of time and scope for expanding the research to the European 
context. Notably, Finland serves as an intriguing case study in terms of climate policy outcomes 
(Hoysniemi & Salonen, 2019, 2), exhibiting both strengths and weaknesses. On one hand, it has the 
distinction of being the first country to implement a carbon tax in 1990 (Honkatukia, 1999, 4). 
Conversely, it currently faces challenges with significant per capita emissions that remain at 
unsustainable levels (Larsen & Alslund-Lanthén, 2017, 10), making the execution of sufficiently 
effective climate policies a persistent priority (Sivonen, 2023, 2248). 
9 
 
 To address key imminent disputes, foresight reports are prepared once per parliamentary term by the 
Finnish government since the 1990s. The themes of the field of inquiry diverge depending on what is 
deemed critical for the prospect of the country at any given time (Heinonen & Lautamäki, 2012, 304) 
and explore potential solutions to the identified concerns. Between 2008 and 2009, the Finnish Prime 
Minister’s Office spearheaded the development of a foresight report specifically focused on climate 
and energy policy, according to the Prime Minister’s Office (2009), underscoring the criticality of 
this concern in the current global context. A scenario process was a key element of this project, aimed 
at exploring various possibilities for achieving a sustainable future and promoting dialogue on the 
relative desirability of different developmental paths (Heinonen & Lautamäki, 2012, 305), 
demonstrating the value of this approach in the given context. 
 As further asserted by Nygrén (2019, 30), the foresight approach of scenarios has become particularly 
well-suited to generate relevant insights for complex, multifaceted wicked problems. Consequently, 
Backcasting scenarios were employed as the primary foresight tool for this study to create a desirable 
vision for the transition. This approach transcends purely quantitative analysis, such as econometric 
or forecasting methods (Eurofound & EEA, 2023, 5), as it allows for the assessment of a broader 
range of insights regarding alternative future possibilities related to climate change, given its complex 
nature. The qualitative aspect of this approach does not directly support forecasting or predicting 
specific future events. Instead, it evaluates different potential futures, providing better opportunities 
to prepare for identified alternative futures (Borjeson et al. 2006; Mannermaa, 1991; Robinson, 1990), 
ultimately aiding in the resolution of complicated and multi-dimensional challenges. Moreover, it can 
be beneficial for proactive futurists to engage in shaping the future with deliberate actions (Svenfelt 
et al. 2019; Vähäkari et al. 2020) in pursuit of a green transition, rather than waiting passively for 
future developments to unfold. 
 Given the gravity of this concern, for a smoother transition towards carbon neutrality, gaining support 
from the local community is essential, which necessitates sharing expertise with them, though this 
can often be challenging. As Lauttamäki (2016, 156) suggests, including the people in society in the 
process of knowledge formulation is one of the most effective ways to address this challenge. Hence, 
Futures Workshops serve as an excellent participatory approach that bridges the gap between experts 
and participants. This tool not only facilitates the sharing of knowledge among participants but also 
integrates diverse insights while fostering co-learning (Armanto, 2024; Quist & Vergragt, 2006). 
Consequently, this study adopts Futures Workshops, as they align with the core objectives of this 
research and simultaneously fulfil one of the responsibilities of the futurist, cultivating future-oriented 
thinking skills among society.  
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1.2 Research Aim and Research Questions 
This thesis was commissioned by TalousVihreät (EconomyGreens), who sought a research project 
focused on developing and visualising potential futures for a sustainable economy. The 
EconomyGreens in Finland aimed to utilise Futures research methods centred on sustainable 
economic practices. In my effort to outline a vision for a sustainable economy, I was granted the 
liberty to define the scope of the study. Accordingly, in consultation with the client, the scope of the 
research was determined. 
 In particular, Finland, as an integral member of the European Union (EU), has responsibility for the 
ambitious objective of achieving a climate-neutral EU region by 2050, following the EU Green Deal. 
Within this overarching framework, Finland has articulated its own national strategic target of 
attaining carbon neutrality by 2035, wherein emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are to be minimized 
to levels that are at least equivalent to CO2 removals (Hoysniemi & Salonen, 2019; Lipiäinen & 
Vakkilainen, 2021; Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment of Finland, 2022; Ministry of the 
Environment, 2020). Accordingly, in alignment with Finland’s national climate strategy, the year 
2035 is claimed as a critical temporal milestone for this study. 
 To ensure that Finland is making substantive progress toward the EU’s 2050 carbon neutrality goal, 
establishing an interim checkpoint by 2035 is deemed essential. This checkpoint serves a dual 
function: it facilitates the acceleration of progress towards the climate neutrality target and allows for 
timely reassessments of strategies, potentially altering the trajectory if necessary to ensure goal 
attainment. This strategic juncture is particularly significant, given that it is positioned in 10 years 
hence, affording sufficient time for necessary reversals or enhancements in policy measures while 
concurrently supporting strategic national binding targets by 2035. 
 Accordingly, the primary aim of this study is to envision a carbon-neutral, sustainable economy in 
Finland by the year 2035, reflecting the preferences and priorities of key stakeholders. In 
collaboration with TalousVihreät, this study particularly focuses on the envisioned futures of green 
political actors committed to economic viability, thereby introducing a novel perspective to this field 
of research. Consequently, rather than merely forecasting future outcomes, it adopts a critical and 
normative approach that explores alternative preferred futures by this particular set of actors, 
challenging future possibilities. In addition to this primary aim, a secondary aim is to develop 
transition pathways with policy measures that can actively influence future outcomes toward the 
desired state, thereby facilitating a seamless transition to carbon neutrality by the specified year.  
11 
 
Moreover, a complementary goal of this study is to enhance participants’ understanding of Futures 
approaches that can address complex challenges such as climate change. Engaging stakeholders in 
the co-creation of a vision that resonates with their desired futures is recognised as an effective 
strategy for fostering agency, ultimately leading to a more effective transition. Thus, this process can 
yield mutual benefits, offering reciprocal advantages for both participants and me. 
 Therefore, in alignment with the aforementioned study aims, two central research questions emerge 
as pivotal to guiding this inquiry. 
• What could be the preferred future scenarios for economically concerned green political actors 
in Finland to achieve a carbon-neutral sustainable economy by 2035? 
• How can alternative pathways align with the preferred future scenarios to support the 
transition towards a carbon-neutral sustainable Economy? 
 Significantly, the involvement of TalousVihreät was essential at every stage of the research process, 
from inception to completion. While there was flexibility in defining the study’s scope, other 
elements, including objectives, research questions, methodologies, and timelines, were 
collaboratively discussed and agreed upon with them before the commencement of research activities. 
Accordingly, this collaborative approach ensured that TalousVihreät’s perspectives and expertise 
were reflected throughout the study. 
1.3 Chapter Summary  
To address the overarching research questions, the following chapter will focus on a theoretical 
framework comprising Dator’s generic futures and the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP), specifically 
examining preferred future alternatives and transition pathways toward the desired future state. In 
addition to that, understanding what constitutes a carbon-neutral economy is crucial, as the objective 
is to achieve carbon neutrality. Thus, the concept of a carbon-neutral economy will be clarified in the 
next chapter alongside the role of Backcasting scenarios in envisioning preferred futures utilised in 
this study. 
After establishing the theoretical perspective, the next step involves detailing the methodological 
approach employed in this research. Given that Backcasting scenarios have been discussed 
previously, this third chapter concentrates predominantly on the Futures Workshop, outlining the 
procedure from data collection to data presentation. It will provide an in-depth description of the 
series of futures workshops, encompassing four distinct phases, including preparation and the mental 
12 
 
time-travelling exercise. Research integrity within the context of the study and the responsibilities of 
a futurist will also be addressed, emphasising the importance of ethical values in our lives as futurists. 
Subsequently, Chapter Four presents the findings derived from the series of futures workshops, 
including 13 future images, highlighting four detailed preferred images. The chapter exhibits one 
preferred scenario for a carbon-neutral economy in Finland, accompanied by development pathways 
that outline important policy measures necessary to achieve the desired future scenario. 
Finally, Chapter Five offers significant findings that respond to the overarching research questions, 
contributing to the overall aim of the thesis through the theoretical lenses explained in previous 
chapters. This chapter also serves to validate the research methods employed in the study, reflecting 
on the preferred futures while identifying any limitations, suggestions and concluding with a 
summative remark. 
 
 
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2 Theoretical Framework and Concepts  
The theoretical foundation of the thesis is delineated in this chapter, establishing the key concepts 
and theoretical framework relevant to the study. It offers a comprehensive explanation of the 
theoretical framework, emphasising its interconnections with other concepts and providing the 
contextual background for the study. This chapter commences with an exploration of the sustainable 
and carbon-neutral economy concept, examining the drivers essential for achieving such an economy, 
utilising a critical approach. Following this, it defines the futures approach of Backcasting scenarios, 
underscoring the normative approach employed within the study, and proceeds to introduce Dator’s 
generic futures as a means to analyse alternative futures. Finally, the chapter discusses the dynamics 
of the systemic transition of the economy, incorporating the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) 
framework to elucidate the necessary transition pathways needed, which pave the way for attaining 
the envisioned preferred future state. 
2.1 Sustainable and Carbon-Neutral Economy 
To establish a robust foundation for the study, it is imperative to develop a comprehensive 
understanding of a sustainable and carbon-neutral economy, which is embedded in the central 
objective of the research. The European Climate Law, adopted by the EU, encompass various 
dimensions of the region, including societal, human, and economic factors (Eurofound & EEA, 2023). 
As Maksymova et al. (2024, 335) argue, to facilitate a seamless green transition towards climate 
neutrality, simultaneously developing policies which address these multi-faceted aspects is crucial. 
Ultimately, a green transition must strike a symmetry between the Earth’s ecological capacities and 
the pressures exerted by the global market. Accordingly, recognising the interrelation of 
environmental sustainability and economic viability is essential, particularly from a perspective of 
sustainable development. Consequently, establishing a cohesive vision that integrates ecological and 
economic interests while fostering awareness among local communities and businesses is vital for 
the achievement of climate neutrality. 
 However, insights drawn from prior research highlight various patterns concerning the relationship 
between economic growth and environmental pollution, particularly CO2 emissions. One perspective 
indicates a positive correlation between higher per capita income (or economic growth) and increased 
environmental degradation as consumption levels rise with the level of income (Madurai Elavarasan 
et al. 2022; Oerlemans et al.1972; Onofrei et al. 2022). Conversely, another perspective indicates that 
the correct type of economic growth can enhance the capacity to manage climate vulnerabilities 
14 
 
through well-designed systems and standards (Ang 2006; Onofrei et al. 2022). Synthesising these two 
arguments, Tapio (2005, 138) asserts that initial economic growth often comes at the expense of the 
environment. However, he contends that as development progresses, it can result in reduced 
environmental degradation through improved technological advancements and economic efficiency 
driven by investments. 
Nevertheless, Tapio et al. (2011, 23) argue that economic growth does not solely drive or mitigate 
the rise in CO2 emissions. In particular, countries such as Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Norway 
exemplify a scenario where GDP growth is accompanied by a decrease in CO2 emissions (see Figure 
1). This phenomenon, where economic expansion occurs alongside a reduction in emissions, 
underscores the concept of absolute or strong decarbonization (Tapio et al. 2011, 3), which has 
persistently attracted scholarly scepticism (Delbeke and Vis, 2019; Jackson, 2017; Victor & 
Rosenbluth, 2007). 
 
Figure 1: Change in per capita CO2 emissions and GDP (Ritchie et al. 2023) 
 
15 
 
 Accordingly, it is sometimes argued that this decoupling is overly praised due to the accounting 
methods used, and this approach is based on the “direct” emissions methodology, as adopted by the 
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement. 
An alternative would be the “indirect” method with embedded emissions, which accounts for 
emissions concerning a country’s consumption of goods, whether they are imported or domestically 
produced. The core argument is that the EU is simply boosting its imports of carbon-intensive 
products, effectively “exporting” its carbon emissions to other parts of the world (Delbeke and Vis, 
2019, 8-9.). This practice merely exaggerates the issue at the global scale, as climate change 
transcends national boundaries. 
In light of the various perspectives on the relationship between economic growth and emissions, 
which often overlook embedded emissions, critically assessing the potential of suitable economic 
strategies is essential. As Onfrei et al. (2022, 8) highlight, economic growth alone does not inherently 
reduce climate vulnerability, making it crucial to approach this matter with careful consideration. 
Accordingly, Victor (2010, 370) suggested how economies can thoughtfully adapt to the biophysical 
boundaries of the planet, outlining three feasible options. The first option is to continue pursuing the 
growth of the economy in developed countries, simultaneously working to mitigate its adverse effects, 
and the second alternative is to promote growth in sectors that rely on lesser quantity of resources, 
such as the service industry and finally, to consider limitations on growth itself as the third option. 
The first two options advocate for a green economy or green growth (Madurai Elavarasan et al. 2022), 
emphasising consumption and activities that facilitate decoupling. Each of these options presents an 
opportunity to shift perspectives toward a framework where ecological sustainability is an essential 
prerequisite, whereas the economy is viewed as a tool to achieve these objectives. 
 As demonstrated by Svenfelt et al. (2019, 2), a compelling response to the third option is the notion 
of a “steady state” or a “degrowth.” A degrowth is not merely a matter of doing less of the same, it 
invites us to reevaluate and transform our approach. This encompasses a wide array of innovative 
practices, diverse energy sources and applications, and reimagined relationships with the non-human 
world. In societies that adopt the principles of degrowth, the persistent pressure to “grow or die” 
would be replaced by a commitment to sufficiency, allowing for a more sustainable existence. 
 Regardless of whether we lean towards a steady state, degrowth, or an a-growth perspective, it is 
crucial to explore alternative futures that free us from existing continuous economic growth that 
excludes aspects of sustainability. The pressing question then becomes, how can society navigate a 
transition that deviates from its existing paradigm? Dreborg (1996, 814) suggests that when faced 
16 
 
with multifaceted problems that span multiple sectors and societal levels, it necessitates significant 
transformation, which is exacerbated by dominant trends, and permits a long enough timeframe for 
intentional decisions. Accordingly, our attention can be moved from the path we are on now to the 
path we genuinely wish to follow, along with how we could achieve that desired path.  
There is a vital need to evolve from surface-level criticisms and the mere identification of 
sustainability challenges to a deep exploration of what it means to pursue values that are truly 
desirable, irrespective of economic growth (Svenfelt et al. 2019, 2). The aim is to delve into 
alternatives that transcend the obsession with GDP growth. Such conversations could be invaluable, 
whether low or negative growth is viewed as a threat arising from ineffective growth strategies or 
economic crises or as a remarkable opportunity for intentional degrowth or a steady-state economy 
to realise sustainability goals. 
One of the aims of this study is to identify transition pathways towards a carbon-neutral economy. To 
begin with, it is essential to recognise the key variables associated with achieving carbon neutrality. 
For Finland to meet its climate neutrality target by 2035, it is necessary for CO2 removals to equal 
emissions. To support this goal, a dual approach is required: first, reducing carbon emissions through 
various strategies is crucial; second, enhancing CO2 removals is imperative, as reaching zero 
emissions within the designated timeframe is a challenging target. Therefore, while focusing on 
minimising carbon emission sources, it is equally important for Finland to implement measures that 
increase carbon sinks to boost CO2 removals. 
In Finland, since 2005, net emissions have shown fluctuations despite a 40% reduction in emissions, 
primarily due to a significant decline in the carbon sink from the land use, land use change, and 
forestry (LULUCF) sectors (Jensen, 2024, 1). Yearly variations in the carbon sink are influenced by 
factors such as levels of harvesting, wood demand, and forest growth, given that forests play a crucial 
role in land use (The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2023, 11). While growing forests serve as 
carbon sinks, approximately 20% of global emissions stem from deforestation (Siljander & Ekholm, 
2018, 783). This raises an important debate, as noted by Lipiäinen & Vakkilainen (2021, 2), regarding 
whether forests should be preserved in their natural state, free from exploitation by other sectors. 
However, adopting active and sustainable forest management practices can reverse this declining 
trend and enhance the carbon sink without compromising forest utility (Jensen, 2024; Madurai 
Elavarasan et al. 2022). Nevertheless, findings by Siljander & Ekholm (2018, 798) suggest that the 
most cost-effective mitigation strategy would involve enhancing the forest carbon sink rather than 
prioritising other forest uses for emissions reduction.  
17 
 
Apart from carbon removal, to achieve a carbon-neutral economy, a range of factors play a crucial 
role in reducing carbon emissions. Key drivers identified by different studies include digitalisation 
(Carlsson-Kanyama, 2008; Firoiu et al. 2022; Madurai Elavarasan et al. 2022), community 
empowerment, green investments, equitable access to resources and information, and the 
development of ecosystems based on the 3R approach: Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle (Carlsson-
Kanyama, 2008). Additionally, natural patterns and landscape restoration (Maksymova et al. 2024, 
335-336) are also counted as vital components. Investment in education, equality, and a shift towards 
sufficiency within circular economy principles are deemed essential by various studies (Eurofound 
and EEA, 2023; Firoiu et al. 2022). Furthermore, local-level requirements for a transition include 
energy-efficient buildings (Carlsson-Kanyama, 2008, 40), innovations (Kainuma et al. 2024, 2), 
green spaces in urban areas (Carlsson-Kanyama, 2008), and limited consumption (Madurai 
Elavarasan et al. 2022, 4). 
Other significant determinants of a carbon-neutral economy encompass renewable energy sources, 
the electrification of transportation (Geels, 2018, 225), regulations, carbon taxes requiring emitters to 
pay fees for their emissions (Carlsson-Kanyama, 2008; Geels, 2018; Onfrei et al. 2022), clean energy 
incentives with tax flexibilities (Onfrei et al. 2022), carbon labelling schemes, sustainable forest 
management, nature-inclusive practices, circular agriculture and promotion of plant-based diets and 
reducing food waste (Carlsson-Kanyama, 2008, 40) have been highlighted as essential (Madurai 
Elavarasan et al. 2022, 4-22). Additionally, lifestyle changes (Kainuma et al. 2024, 2), accessible and 
affordable public transportation, and the incorporation of values and ethics (Carlsson-Kanyama, 
2008, 40) were noted in several preceding studies. 
Despite the variety of theoretical findings regarding a carbon-neutral economy, it has been a 
demanding task to understand how each aspect interrelates to create a coherent vision of what such 
an economy entails. Therefore, I have sought to accept the diverse perspectives on this concept, rather 
than asserting a singular, precise answer to the query, “What is a carbon-neutral economy?” 
Consequently, this extensive list of concepts and standpoints that contribute to the notion of a carbon-
neutral economy will help elucidate how different concepts mutually reinforce while preserving some 
areas of divergence. Furthermore, this analysis will assist in determining whether the desired carbon-
neutral economy proposed by green political actors shares similarities or differs from the existing 
literature by offering a foundational basis of interpretation. 
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2.2 Backcasting for Preferred Futures 
Considering the various perspectives in the literature regarding what constitutes a carbon-neutral 
economy, as discussed in the previous subchapter, this study seeks to identify the envisioned 
attributes of a carbon-neutral economy. Additionally, alternative pathways to reach the desired future 
state are also a part of the study, from the viewpoints of specific stakeholders, particularly green 
political actors. To accomplish these study objectives, this chapter will explore the future approach 
of scenarios, with a particular emphasis on the Backcasting scenario method, which underlies the 
methodological framework of this study. This futures research technique is instrumental in identifying 
alternative desired futures for a carbon-neutral economy, along with possible development paths, 
aligning effectively with the study’s key objectives. 
To expand the possibilities of what can be achieved within the current framework, envisioning a 
desired future serves as a powerful tool that enables consideration of a broader range of solutions at 
present (Svenfelt et al. 2019, 10). In support of this notion, Boulding (1988, 21) argued that positive 
actions can be inspired by positive images. Consequently, to create a preferred vision for the future 
and outline a development pathway, a scenario approach is utilised, as my intention was not to predict 
the future but instead discover preferred possibilities (Börjeson et al. 2006, 724). 
Scenarios are internally consistent narratives about the future and represent more than just a single 
technique; they encompass a broader approach that integrates various tools and techniques to examine 
the future from different perspectives (Heinonen & Lautamäki, 2012; Järvi et al. 2015; Rikkonen et 
al. 2021; Tuominen et al. 2014). Given that there are distinct categories within this scenario approach, 
each scenario type should be driven by a specific purpose. Hence, Börjeson et al. (2006, 725-730) 
distinguished between three categories: Predictive, Explorative, and Normative scenarios, 
corresponding to the questions “what will happen?”, “What could happen?”, and “what should 
happen?” respectively. 
2.2.1 The Backcasting Scenario Approach 
In my exploration of achieving carbon neutrality in Finland, I have determined that normative 
scenarios are the most suitable approach, as they focus on specific targets rather than projections or 
vague explorations. As defined by Börjeson et al. (2006, 725-730), normative scenarios can be 
categorised into two types: “Preserving Normative scenarios” and “Transformative Normative 
scenarios.” The primary distinction between these two categories lies in the extent to which the 
existing structure can accomplish the desired goals. If no structural changes are necessary to meet the 
19 
 
targets, then “Preserving Normative scenarios” will suffice. However, if structural changes are 
essential, “Transformative Normative scenarios” should be employed. Notably, Backcasting 
scenarios fall under the category of “Transformative Normative scenarios,” as they are particularly 
effective when existing structures or trends impede the achievement of a desirable goal (Börjeson et 
al. 2006; Drebog, 1996; Höjer et al. 2011; Robinson, 1990), as in the case of the study. 
Many scenarios typically present a trajectory from the present to the future (Rikkonen et al. 2021, 
10). In contrast, the Backcasting approach employed in this study takes a reverse path, starting from 
a desired future (Heinonen & Lautamäki, 2012; Robinson, 1990; Tuominen et al. 2014) and aiming 
to outline how to achieve that envisioned future. This method illustrates a logical and internally 
consistent route toward the desired state by conceptualising a preferred future (Höjer et al. 2011, 820). 
As highlighted by Höjer et al. (2011, 820), Backcasting has some key characteristics: it is more target-
oriented as it begins with a specific objective, adopts a long-term standpoint, and seeks alternative 
pathways, all while considering options beyond current trends. 
Therefore, in contrast to forecasting, Backcasting scenarios are particularly well-suited for this study, 
as they address complex, long-term challenges that require significant changes (Dreborg, 1996; 
Heinonen & Lautamäki, 2012; Höjer et al. 2011). Consequently, this study is grounded in the 
Backcasting approach, which was developed by Robinson’s (1990) concept of functioning backwards 
from a desired endpoint to the present and determining the necessary policy measures to accomplish 
that goal, as demonstrated in previous research (Järvi et al. 2015; Tuominen et al. 2014). Furthermore, 
Participatory Backcasting has gained prominence in prior studies (Carlsson-Kanyama et al. 2008; 
Höjer et al. 2011; Robinson, 2011) due to its unique advantages, including the enhancement of 
scenarios, better learning among participants, and the democratizing aspect of allowing participants 
to influence the outcomes. Consequently, this study implements Backcasting scenarios through a 
participatory approach, utilising Futures workshops. 
2.2.2 Scenario Archetypes 
This subchapter is devoted to the exploration of theoretical notions regarding alternative preferred 
futures, drawing inspiration from Jim Dator’s (1998) insights. His idea resonates with the key aim of 
this study, which intends to identify preferred scenarios for a carbon-neutral economy, offering 
scenario archetypes serves as the base for the interpretation of alternative futures. 
 As Dator (2019, 42) asserts, the purpose of future studies extends beyond mere prediction; it involves 
comprehending the myriad alternatives, primarily through various images of the future. He contends 
20 
 
that an extensive array of images can be constructed by combining different potential future scenarios. 
Moreover, Dator (2019) highlights that many of these images can be naturally classified into four 
distinct alternative futures (Dator et al. 1998; Dator, 2019), with some overlaps existing among them. 
These four futures are termed "generic" due to their specific versions or sometimes as “scenario 
archetypes,” which share common theoretical, methodological, and database characteristics, setting 
them apart from the other alternatives. Each scenario possesses both advantages and disadvantages, 
indicating the absence of definitive best- or worst-case outcomes. Importantly, all images carry an 
equal probability of realisation, necessitating substantial and equal consideration. Thus, a key insight 
regarding these generic alternative futures is to anticipate, prepare for, and strive toward a preferred 
future, allowing us to flourish regardless of the circumstances (Dator, 2019, 49). The "four generic 
alternative futures" comprise Continuation, Collapse, Discipline, and Transformation (Dator et al. 
1998; Dator, 2019). The rationale for each of these futures is outlined as follows.  
In the “Continued Growth,” the primary objective from all perspectives is to enhance individuals, 
institutions, and technologies to sustain an ever-expanding economy. This approach is often referred 
to as “Continued Economic Growth.” Conversely, when the economy is in decline or stagnation, it is 
described as “Renewed Economic Growth” (Dator et al. 1998; Dator, 2019). Nevertheless, research 
by Rikkonen et al. (2021, 10) indicates that the “business as usual” scenario mirrors a trajectory 
closely aligned with “Continued Growth,” as it perpetuates recent trends without scrutiny. However, 
Fergnani (2019, 5-6) argues that the “techno-optimism” scenario, driven by exceptional technological 
innovations, characterises “Continued Growth” while aligning with the notion of sustaining current 
trends. 
 A “Collapse” can occur for a variety of reasons, including economic instability, depletion of 
environmental resources, moral or ideological decline, as well as external, internal, or outer space 
attacks. Consequently, a collapse may result from a single cause or a combination of factors, 
potentially leading to extinction or a reduction in development levels compared to the existing state. 
However, this does not necessarily indicate a “worst-case scenario,” as a desire for a simpler lifestyle 
can allow people to appreciate the end of the relentless economic competition or the so-called “rat 
race” (Dator et al. 1998; Dator, 2019). In alignment with Dator’s framework of generic futures, the 
findings from Rikkonen et al. (2021, 10) present the “degrowth” scenario which rejects the growth 
model, resulting in reduced economic undertakings and significantly lower energy consumption than 
to the existing levels, are directly classified under the “Collapse” future, as the system under 
consideration is inevitably face collapse. 
21 
 
 The “Discipline” or “Discipline Society” emerges when individuals perceive continuous economic 
growth as unsustainable or unfavourable. In this context, the preservation or restoration of cherished 
places, processes, and values takes precedence, as these elements are deemed far more significant to 
humanity. It further believes that continuous economic expansion can jeopardise these vital resources. 
Despite advancements in technology that allow us to transcend and enjoy life beyond what natural 
resources can provide, a reckoning is inevitable due to the finite nature of our planet, which faces 
rapidly depleting resources and environmental pollution. Thus, the fundamental focus of both the 
economy and society should shift from the pursuit of economic growth to ensuring fair dissemination 
and survival. Additionally, society should be guided by a core set of values, be they spiritual, natural, 
political, religious or cultural, that encourage a deeper understanding of life beyond the mere 
acquisition of infinite wealth and consumerism. (Dator et al. 1998; Dator, 2019.) The “Energy saving 
and decarbonisation” scenario proposed by Rikkonen et al. (2021), which promotes a favourable 
direction for the energy scheme, resonates with Dator’s vision of a “Discipline society,” where 
development is strongly regulated by society. 
 The “Transformation” or “Transformational Society” signifies the emergence of a dream society 
poised to fundamentally alter the current information society, primarily driven by the profound 
advancements in technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Robotics, Nanotechnology, and 
Space exploration. This transformation encompasses all facets of life, involving humanity evolving 
into a distinctly advanced “posthuman” state, potentially inhabiting artificial environments (Dator, 
2019; Dator et al. 1998). According to the research conducted by Rikkonen et al. (2021, 10), two 
scenarios are classified under “Transformation,” where significant technological changes emerge as 
pivotal forces. The first is the “green growth” scenario, which represents a profound shift from the 
current energy framework to a renewable system, facilitated by advanced technologies. In contrast, 
the “climate-friendly transformation” scenario illustrates a transition away from the growth paradigm 
toward a climate-friendly approach, categorised as a “Transformation” scenario. Interestingly, this 
shift does not rely on radical technological advancements but instead emphasises a fundamental 
change in welfare growth. Supporting this notion, Fergnani (2019, 5-6) asserts that “Transformation” 
entails a radical rethinking of our assumptions rather than merely technological innovations as 
specified by Dator. 
This theoretical framework will aid in analysing the key findings of the study, particularly in 
exploring alternative preferred future scenarios. The focus will be on whether these scenarios align 
with the characteristics of scenario archetypes proposed by Jim Dator or diverge from existing 
22 
 
literature, potentially introducing entirely new traits. Therefore, this theoretical lens is well-suited for 
the objectives of this thesis, which seeks to identify and present alternative preferred futures. 
2.3 Transition Pathways and Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) Framework  
This subchapter focuses on exploring the theoretical framework and concepts related to transition 
pathways, drawing insight from the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework. The MLP framework 
is well-suited to the context of this study, as it provides a flexible approach to addressing the second 
research question aimed at identifying transition pathways for achieving a carbon-neutral economy. 
This could provide a suitable framework for a comprehensive analysis of long-term socio-technical 
transitions. 
 The complexities associated with climate change challenges have intensified, highlighting the need 
for a transdisciplinary approach to achieve a comprehensive understanding rather than relying solely 
on one perspective. Accordingly, Kainuma et al. (2024, 2) argue that a simple step-by-step method is 
insufficient for effectively addressing global warming. Instead, it requires a thorough transformation 
of systems to tackle the intricacies of the issue. Aligning with that, Vähäkari et al. (2020, 3) portray 
that a sustainability transition is propelled by multiple innovations (Geels, 2018, 224) across various 
spheres, supported by a diverse array of actors. Additionally, Geels and Schot (2007, 399) 
characterise transitions as transformations that take place between distinct socio-technical regimes, 
emphasising the dynamic processes involved in moving from one established system to another. This 
transition process is inherently non-linear and is influenced by interactions with the surrounding 
environment. Furthermore, it should be noted that such a shift is not possible to happen overnight. 
Thus, given the established infrastructure, tailored components, institutions, and socio-technical 
systems, transformation occurs at a gradual pace, with radical transitions being exceptionally rare. 
Consequently, these systems evolve over extended periods, often spanning decades, where the 
alignment of various elements fosters path dependency and stimulates resistance to change, as strong 
incumbent actors strive to uphold and defend existing stable systems (Geels, 2018, 224). This 
phenomenon poses a significant barrier to achieving meaningful sustainability transitions. It is also 
notable that even sudden changes are frequently perceived as short-term rather than lasting. 
Promoting the long-term actualisation of sustainability remains a daunting challenge, largely due to 
a predominant prioritisation of short-term benefits (Vähäkari et al. 2020, 3). 
 As suggested by Geels (2018, 226), scholars engaged in transition studies should prioritise multiple 
innovations as the focal point of their analysis rather than solely concentrating on singular disruptive 
23 
 
events. Both disruptive and gradual changes can act as catalysts for transformation or improvement, 
emphasising the notion that transformation can emerge from a series of incremental modifications 
rather than solely through revolutionary disruptions. This leads to a critical distinction between the 
speed of change, whether it be disruptive or gradual, and the magnitude of the outcome, whether a 
minor or significant change occurs within socio-technical systems. It should be noted that the 
emphasis here is not on radical shifts in existing systems; rather, the objective is to address climate 
change challenges through a systemic lens. Change is considered the result of a complex, non-linear 
web of interactions. While precise predictions regarding future developments may be unrealistic, it 
remains evident that future transitions will be shaped by present decisions and actions, thereby 
allowing for active influence over future paths (Vähäkari et al. 2020; Persson et al. 2025). 
In seeking to shape innovation processes, Transition Theory analyses various facets of socio-technical 
change and presents frameworks that can effectively assist policymakers and other stakeholders 
(Persson et al. 2025, 2). Among the esteemed frameworks available for an in-depth analysis of long-
term socio-technical transition processes, the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) was selected for this 
study due to its explorative nature, flexibility, and capacity to map complex, non-linear developments 
over time (Vähäkari et al. 2020, 2) considering the nature of the climate change challenges.  
The MLP framework, continually refined by Geels, was initially introduced by Rip and Kemp 
(Persson et al. 2025, 3). This framework can be understood as a system model consisting of three 
distinct analytical levels: niche, regime, and landscape (see Figure 2). These levels are interconnected 
and can significantly influence the development process (Lauttamäki, 2023; Persson et al. 2025; 
Vähäkari et al. 2020). In support of this, Geels and Schot (2007, 399) argue that the alignment of 
advancements across these multiple levels facilitates systemic transitions. The MLP framework 
elucidates processes of change through the interconnected configurations of technologies, policies, 
markets, user practices, infrastructures, regulations, and cultural meanings (Geels, 2018, 224), along 
with the actors, resources, and institutions that foster stability and create opportunities for change 
(Geels and Schot, 2007; Vähäkari et al. 2020). As highlighted by Geels (2018, 224), the MLP expands 
the analytical perspective from merely technological products to encompass socio-technical systems, 
24 
 
demonstrating how transitions arise from the interconnections among factors at the niche, regime, 
and landscape levels (see Figure 2), which resonates with the objectives of the thesis. 
 
2.3.1 Three Levels in MLP: Niche, Regime, and Landscape  
Niche is where social and technical novelties emerge that distinctly set themselves apart from existing 
socio-technical systems (Geels and Schot, 2007; Geels, 2018). The predictability and stability of 
niche functions are notably lower than those at the regime level (Vähäkari et al. 2020, 4), resulting in 
these initial micro-level novelties being perceived as unstable socio-technical configurations. Geels 
and Schot (2007, 400) and Smith et al. (2010, 440) claim that niches operate as "incubation rooms" 
to safeguard innovations from the forces of mass-market focus. These innovations are driven forward 
by a selected group of actors, including entrepreneurs and innovators, willing to embrace risk. 
Therefore, as further suggests, continuous engagement from these actors is crucial for the existence 
Figure 2: Multilevel perspective on sociotechnical transitions (Geels & Schot, 2007, 401) 
25 
 
and establishment of robust networks for knowledge dissemination (Smith et al. 2010, 440). 
Furthermore, the enhancement of innovations through iterative learning practices and the 
communication and alignment of visions and expectations in the relevant domains are demanded. 
 As Persson et al. (2025, 3) argue, the alternative socio-technical configurations at the micro level, 
which are considered niches, have not yet achieved the scale needed to influence established regimes. 
Hence, over time, these innovations may either thrive, persist in their current form, or fail to 
materialise (Smith et al. 2010; Vähäkari et al. 2020). However, several critical factors have been 
identified by Geels and Schot (2007) that could facilitate a breakthrough, such as a strengthened focus 
on a major innovation, the steadiness of actor networks, and the high-pitched popularity of 
innovations within particular market sectors, etc (Vähäkari et al. 2020, 4). 
The concept of socio-technical regimes is an expanded version of the technological regime concept 
initially proposed by Nelson and Winter in 1982. It refers to cognitive procedures distributed by the 
engineering society (Geels and Schot, 2007; Grin et al. 2010). The notion of regimes was further 
broadened by Rip and Kemp in 1998, who integrated sociological rules alongside cognitive 
procedures (Grin et al. 2010, 20), thereby encompassing a more extensive social community (Geels 
and Schot, 2007, 400). This regime structure consists of dominant technologies, established standards, 
and guiding directions that foster stability in the transition framework (Lauttamäki & Hyysalo, 2019; 
Vähäkari et al. 2020). 
Supporting this view, Grin et al. (2010, 18) suggest that socio-technical regimes exhibit greater 
stability due to their expansive social networks, markets, infrastructure, and clear regulations, which 
yield more defined outcomes. Changes within these regimes are trivial and typically supported by the 
involved parties, despite the continuing variations that may occur at this level (Vähäkari et al. 2020, 
4). Nevertheless, the role of regime-level actors is crucial for transition, as the interconnections and 
collaboration among various elements are vital for achieving a transformation that, while feasible, is 
also challenging (Persson et al. 2025; Vähäkari et al. 2020). 
The broader contextual framework that governs the regime, while the regime itself exerts minimal or 
negligible influence, is referred to as the Socio-Technical Landscape. This landscape encompasses 
slow-moving trends, such as population dynamics and geopolitics, which undergo gradual changes 
over decades, as well as external disturbances like economic collapses, wars, or significant disasters. 
(Geels, 2018, 225.) It also includes fast-moving trends, such as digitalisation (Geels and Schot, 2007; 
Vähäkari et al. 2020). Consequently, the landscape can be categorised into three types: slow or non-
moving factors, gradual changes that evolve over the long term, and rapid external disturbances 
26 
 
(Geels and Schot, 2007, 403). In alignment with this structure, various fluctuations occur in the 
operating background based on key dimensions of frequency, amplitude, speed, and scope (Vähäkari 
et al. 2020, 4). Furthermore, as Grin et al. (2019, 19) point out, the Landscape provides a structural 
backdrop that catalyses activities. 
2.3.2 Archetypes of Possible Transition Pathways 
A transition occurs through the interactions among all three levels, where niche innovations foster 
internal momentum. Conversely, the landscape level exerts pressure on the regime, leading to its 
deterioration and creating a window of opportunity for niches (Geels and Schot, 2007; Lauttamäki & 
Hyysalo, 2019; Vähäkari et al. 2020). The varying timing of interactions across these levels can have 
distinct impacts, making it a crucial factor in the transition process. The pressure exerted by the 
landscape is ineffective if niche innovations are unprepared to capitalise on the opportunities that 
arise. Another key factor influencing the transition is the nature of the relationships, whether they are 
reinforcing or disruptive, between the distinct levels in the MLP (Geels and Schot, 2007; Lauttamäki, 
2023). 
Building on these two factors, MLP studies have established typologies of various pathways that 
illustrate how transitions can occur (Geels & Schot, 2007; Vähäkari et al. 2020). In some cases, the 
type of landscape change is also considered a third factor (Lauttamäki & Hyysalo, 2019, 84). These 
transition pathways in MLP closely resemble Backcasting scenarios (Vähäkari et al. 2020, 7), which 
were introduced in subchapter 2.2 and represent alternative routes toward a desired future. The six 
potential scenario pathways identified (Geels and Schot, 2007; Lauttamäki & Hyysalo, 2019; 
Lauttamäki, 2023; Vähäkari et al. 2020) are as follows. These archetypes offer a suitable framework 
for the analysis of the study, particularly in addressing the second research question. 
• Reproduction process: The system remains stable, with changes occurring only within its 
internal logic (reproducing) due to a lack of pressure from the landscape. 
• Transformation pathway: The regime gradually alters its development direction under modest 
pressure from the landscape, as the maturity of niche innovations is insufficient to gain control 
over the existing system. 
• De-alignment and re-alignment pathway: Significant and sudden landscape pressures can lead 
to a loss of faith in the regime, resulting in changed rules and the de-alignment of the regime. 
At this point, due to the insufficient maturity of niche innovations, competition arises among 
27 
 
multiple potential niches. Ultimately, the dominance of one of these niches lays the 
groundwork for re-alignment. 
• Technological substitution pathway: When niche innovations reach adequate development, 
they can seize the opportunity created by substantial landscape pressure to replace the existing 
regime. 
• Reconfiguration pathway: Regime actors willing to change with mutually beneficial 
innovations, developed by niches, to solve the local problems. Both landscape pressures on 
the regime and opportunities for niches remain present, with the key feature being the 
interactions between niche innovations and the regime. 
• Mixing pathways: Development involves multiple sequences. As landscape pressures 
increase, regime actors may respond in various ways, leading to different development paths. 
This makes it challenging to portray a general model; however, a fundamental insight is that 
development can progress from one composition to another in pursuit of evolving phases. 
This sequence of transition pathways likely begins with transformation, contributing to 
reconfiguration, and, as landscape pressures continue to rise, could lead to either substitution 
or de-alignment and re-alignment. 
The theoretical concepts and frameworks unwrapped in this chapter will serve as the groundwork 
for evaluating the study outcomes. However, this theoretical discourse offers guidance for the 
analysis while allowing for flexibility, as it is not confined merely to the specified theoretical 
frameworks or concepts. Consequently, the analysis may yield innovative or additional insights 
that extend beyond the theoretical discourse in Chapter Two. 
28 
 
3 Methodology 
This chapter outlines how the aforementioned research questions were addressed with the application 
of future research methods to achieve the desired outcomes of the thesis. Thus, it includes futures 
research methods and tools utilised throughout the research process for answering the research 
questions. This chapter begins with a clarification of the context of the study and subsequently moves 
on to the research design, emphasising the qualitative methodological approach utilised in the thesis. 
It further explains the reasoning behind choosing this approach and illustrates how it aligns with and 
enhances the study’s objectives. Subsequently, the chapter presents the entire process of the series of 
Futures workshops, before addressing the ethical considerations at the end of the section.  
3.1 Context of Study 
As indicated earlier in subchapter 1.2, this is a commissioned thesis with TalousVihreät, who sought 
a research project aimed at creating and visualising alternative futures for a sustainable economy. The 
EconomyGreens in Finland (TalousVihreät) needed to utilise Futures research approaches focusing 
on sustainable economy, policies, responsible entrepreneurship and investment as they intend to 
create a world where a sustainable and profitable economy serves society.  
In light of the instruction to develop a vision for a sustainable economy, I had the flexibility to define 
my thesis’s scope, focus, and timeline. Scenarios are an effective participatory tool that brings 
together stakeholders and researchers to collaboratively shape this vision; thus, the primary outcome 
expected from the study was the formulation of these scenarios. The focus was specifically on 
Finland, as discussed in subchapter 1.2. Additionally, the study encompassed the necessary policy 
measures to implement the vision with transition pathways. 
Participants intended to actively engage in the process of creating these scenarios, enabling them to 
learn about future-oriented approaches and gain valuable insights. Consequently, they took part in a 
series of Futures workshops, contributing from data collection through to the drafting of future 
scenarios. The findings of this study are intended to inform and enhance policymaking, while 
concurrently utilizing these insights to strengthen electoral strategies. Thus, EconomyGreens served 
as the main organizer of the Futures Workshop series, with Visiotuki providing support for the 
project. 
29 
 
3.2 Research Design 
The selection of an appropriate research method is influenced by multiple factors, making it a 
complex process. As Popper (2008, 82) asserts, the choice of a futures research method is primarily 
guided by three key elements: intuition, insight, and impulsiveness, although these may not be 
applicable in every situation. It is essential to carefully consider the purpose and contextual conditions 
of the study before selecting a method. In addition, one should rationally choose a method or a 
combination of methods to address the limitations inherent in any single approach, ensuring that the 
selected methods effectively address the specific research questions. 
Furthermore, the characteristics and capabilities of foresight methods are regarded as two 
fundamental aspects. As Popper (2008, 64-65) claims, methods are classified as Qualitative, 
Quantitative, and Semi-quantitative based on their “nature.” Qualitative methods provide 
interpretations grounded in subjective and creative perspectives, such as opinions, beliefs, and 
attitudes, which can make validation challenging. Conversely, methods are also categorised based on 
their “capabilities,” which refers to their capacity to collect and process information through evidence, 
expertise, interaction, or creativity. 
In line with this understanding, the study adopted a qualitative approach, as it facilitates the 
exploration of the complexities inherent in wicked problems, issues that are difficult to quantify and 
necessitate innovative problem-solving strategies. The primary methods selected for this research 
were scenarios and Futures Workshops. According to Popper (2008, 65), scenario classification is 
not fixed; rather, it is influenced by the approach used in its creation. This implies that the context 
and approach employed in developing each scenario contribute to defining their nature, whether 
qualitative or quantitative; accordingly, the Backcasting scenario is classified as a qualitative method.  
I adopted this qualitative methodology, utilising the scenarios method to offer deeper insights and a 
comprehensive understanding of this complex issue. Given that this study commenced with a vision, 
the scenarios developed herein can be classified as a form of "Backcasting" (Heinonen & Lautamäki, 
2012, 305) as detailed in subchapter 2.2. Correspondingly, this approach allows for a systematic 
exploration of potential futures by considering desirable outcomes and working backwards to identify 
necessary steps and strategies.  
The Futures workshop was classified as a qualitative method, reflecting the participatory nature and 
creativity in collecting and processing information (Popper, 2008, 65). Moreover, Futures Workshops 
are used for the collection of data, secondarily support the organisation of data, and additionally aid 
30 
 
in data representation, making them an effective method for realising the objectives of this study 
(Lauttamäki, 2016,156). 
 One of the primary reasons for selecting the Futures Workshop is the wicked nature of the problem 
being addressed in this study. Given the complex and multifaceted nature of the problem, a diverse 
range of perspectives and voices is essential to comprehend the range of factors contributing to the 
issue and to facilitate the process of identifying and implementing potential solutions (Nygrén, 2019, 
30). Ralston and Wilson (2006, ref. Nygrén, 2019, 31) emphasise that greater involvement leads to 
more effective outcomes. It was supported by Peterson et al. (2003, 362), who highlight that 
engagement stimulates a broader perspective of the future and enhances understanding of how 
individual actions influence system change, resonating with the objectives of the study.   
Moreover, in pursuit of another objective, engaging stakeholders eager to learn about futures thinking 
and scenario planning was a fundamental reason for adopting this participatory approach. The 
advantages of this objective are twofold. As Armanto (2024, 1) highlights, stakeholders can benefit 
from enhanced learning opportunities, improved decision-making and policy development, a 
considerable influence over outcomes, and a sense of active involvement in the research process. 
Conversely, collaborative learning of stakeholders provides researchers with numerous benefits, 
including access to high-quality and diverse data sets, support for the study, and more effective 
dissemination of findings (Nygrén, 2019, 31). Additionally, Patel et al. (2007, 551) point out that 
selecting participatory scenario processes can help leverage local and specialised knowledge, 
encourage acceptance of results, develop ambassadors for the topic, and influence shifts in 
perspective among key stakeholders. 
Given the benefits of a participatory approach, a series of Futures workshops was conducted over 
three sessions from June to October 2024, with appropriate intervals allocated for analysis. The 
structure of these workshops primarily adhered to a blend of phases recommended by Jungk & 
Müllert (1987, according to Vidal, 2006, 5), Schwartz (1991), and Lauttamäki (2016). However, these 
phases were adapted and customised to suit the specific needs of the client and to address the research 
questions of the study, while also considering available resources and time constraints. 
3.3 Phases of Futures Workshops (FW) 
As outlined previously, the phases of the workshops were customised to align with the requirements 
of the study, which resulted in three primary phases: drivers and elements of a sustainable economy 
(FW1), Images of alternative carbon-neutral futures (FW2) and co-creating the vision (FW3). The 
31 
 
primary phases were supported by an essential preparation phase at the beginning of the workshop 
series. 
3.3.1 The Preparation Phase 
The first phase was crucial (Vidal, 2006, 5), as a failure at this stage could jeopardise the workshops’ 
success and prevent the achievement of desired outcomes. Therefore, during this phase, the initial 
planning and organising tasks were carefully executed. All tasks commenced with detailed 
communication with the research client. In response to their request to engage in the envisioning and 
learning process, the workshops were planned through collaborative discussions, ensuring a schedule 
which was both practical and effective with the available resources. The workshop dates were 
finalised as the 10th of June, 27th of August and 22nd of October in 2024 during the initial stage, as 
it was necessary to secure a venue for the workshops and to facilitate participant recruitment for the 
workshop series through targeted advertising.  
The venue was provided by the client, along with the refreshments for the workshops, which 
significantly reduced my logistics responsibilities as a facilitator. Furthermore, the recruitment 
advertisement was managed and published by Visio with my initial support, leveraging their expertise 
to target people who are keen on learning futures study approaches and willing to contribute to carbon 
neutrality and sustainability efforts. All participant communications were managed by Visio, 
resulting in the successful registration of 12 participants for the workshop series before starting the 
workshops. The only criterion for participant selection was their genuine interest and willingness to 
voluntarily engage in the series of workshops. 
Each workshop was scheduled for four hours daily, running from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. to accommodate 
participants’ availability after work, as agreed upon with the organisers. The agenda for each session 
(see Appendix 1) was distributed to the organisers well in advance of the workshop dates. 
Additionally, presentations were prepared with detailed instructions and pertinent information to 
ensure clarity and comprehension. The workshop series also employed a digital format, enabling all 
participant contributions to be clearly visible and easily recorded for subsequent analysis. As a result, 
physical stationery was deemed unnecessary; instead, participants were encouraged to bring their own 
digital devices, such as laptops, tablets, or smartphones. Given the choice of digital tools, I selected 
the Flinga Board for its user-friendliness and accessibility across various devices. To facilitate smooth 
collaboration for participants, the necessary instructions, stages, and team setups were pre-
constructed on the Flinga Board before the workshops.  
32 
 
3.3.2 Drivers and Elements of a Sustainable Economy (FW1) 
This was the inaugural workshop of the series, focusing on identifying the drivers and elements of a 
sustainable economy. The aim was to deepen the understanding of the theme and its associated 
challenges as suggested by Vidal (2006, 6). Although 12 participants registered for the workshop 
series, only 6 attended the first session. As a result, participants were divided into two groups, each 
consisting of three participants. The workshop began with a brief introduction to the thesis work, 
outlining the objectives and providing contextual background. All participants signed a consent form 
(See Appendix 2), which was reviewed and explained by the facilitator. Since the only eligibility 
criterion for participation was an expressed interest, everyone had the opportunity to introduce 
themselves and share their motivations for joining the workshop series. 
An inspiring speech was given by the guest speaker, followed by a presentation from Visio outlining 
the guidelines for creating a safer space. As mentioned earlier, Flinga was selected as the digital 
platform for the discussions. Consequently, I conducted an introductory session to familiarise 
participants with how to navigate the platform, including its features and essential details for the tasks. 
I made sure that all participants could access the platform smoothly and without interruptions from 
the outset. 
The first workshop had a threefold structure. The initial phase, known as the Applauding Phase, 
encouraged participants to identify positive aspects of the economy that contribute to carbon-neutral 
sustainability. This phase began with individual brainstorming, which then transitioned into group 
discussions. Following this was the Problem Phase, which concentrated on the critical challenges 
hindering the path to carbon neutrality. Similar to the previous phase, individual brainstorming 
generated valuable input for group work. Due to the volume of ideas produced, the groups were tasked 
with organising similar problems and prioritising only three key issues for further exploration. If 
consensus could not be reached through discussion, participants were encouraged to utilise a simple 
voting system as suggested in previous studies (Vidal, 2006, 6) on the Flinga board to determine the 
priority problems. After the second phase, each group presented their results from both phases. Only 
the group presentations were audio recorded with the prior consent of all participants. A coffee break 
with refreshments was provided to stimulate and recharge for continuing the remainder of the agenda. 
 Immediately following the break, a mental time-travel, which was originally developed by Oliver 
Markley in 1970 (Markley, 2008, 17), was incorporated into the workshop to enhance the 
participants’ creativity (Borjeson et al. 2006, 731). This exercise involves a guided journey into a 
future, facilitated through a narrative that describes a picture of a world where sustainability has 
33 
 
already been realised (Cuhls, 2017; Jensen et al. 2022; Slaughter, 1991). This approach encourages 
participants to broaden their perspective on the future, improving creativity and disruptive thinking 
in formulating alternative futures (Borjeson et al. 2006; Cuhls, 2017; Jensen et al. 2022; Markley, 
2008) rather than extrapolating past trends, which perfectly aligns with the study’s objectives. As 
Cuhls (2017, 120) suggests, there are different occasions where mental time travel can be applied, 
and within this study, it was used to pitch the future thinking of participants with broader possibilities 
after the break. 
This mental time-travelling script is adapted from Jensen et al. (2022, 342-344) and has been further 
refined in collaboration with a colleague at FFRC who is well-versed in this approach. Consequently, 
I have crafted a comprehensive script (See Appendix 3) designed to inspire the creativity of 
participants. To ensure that the pauses integrated into the script provide sufficient time for participants 
to imagine, as indicated by Cuhls (2017, 123), I assessed the pacing and tone of voice and tested the 
effectiveness of this technique through a pre-test with a few friends. Fortunately, the feedback was 
overwhelmingly positive; participants found it instrumental in stimulating their imagination, in line 
with previous research findings (Cuhls, 2017; Markley, 2008). They also identified areas for 
improvement, particularly regarding the duration of cycles, especially during the transition from 
home to society. As Cuhls (2017, 119) notes, this testing was essential for enhancing my awareness 
of the cycles, thereby encouraging all participants to engage in mental travel within the designated 
time limit of the workshop. Consequently, I facilitated a 10-minute mental time travel exercise to 
inspire participants’ imaginations. I made a concerted effort to remain objective and neutral 
throughout this task, as advised by Cuhls (2017, 133). The participants’ positive responses were 
evident in the insightful reflections they shared afterwards, displaying their journeys to various 
intriguing locations and highlighting the effectiveness of this exercise. 
The final phase of the workshop was the Futures Signal phase, during which participants were tasked 
with identifying the drivers that could enhance or address the identified issues. These drivers were 
intended to be categorised into Futures Signals, encompassing Mega Trends, Trends, Weak Signals, 
and Wildcards. However, the extensive time needed for participants to pinpoint the drivers prevented 
the completion of the categorisation during the workshop. As a result, the groups presented the drivers 
they had identified, and the session concluded with a discussion of the next steps and a brief reflection. 
3.3.3 Images of Alternative Carbon-Neutral Futures (FW2) 
The second workshop was executed a couple of months after the initial Futures Workshop, primarily 
aimed at developing alternative future images. To build on the discussions from the previous 
34 
 
workshop, I began with a thematic qualitative content analysis, recognised as a flexible method for 
analysing text data according to Hsieh & Shannon (2005, 1277). I utilised NVivo software for this 
analysis, which allowed for a comprehensive review of all text data materials, including repeated 
readings of transcriptions from recorded audio files and contributions from the Flinga Board. The 
coding process involved systematic classification (Hsieh & Shannon, 2005, 1278) to identify 
prevalent themes and driving factors from the data analysis. Adhering to the guidance of Hsieh & 
Shannon (2005, 1286), this study employed conventional content analysis, beginning with 
observations and allowing codes to emerge naturally from the data during the analysis. This method 
enhanced the understanding of the context, as categories were derived directly from the data 
throughout the analytical phase, consistent with the findings of Hsieh & Shannon (2005, 1279). 
The workshop commenced with a brief overview of the study’s context, particularly for a new 
participant who had not attended the previous session. All the necessary instructions were provided 
at the beginning, and a consent form was signed by the new participant. Each participant was able to 
introduce themselves and share their motivations for joining the workshop series, and finally formed 
three groups for the second workshop. A concise recap of where we stopped in the last session was 
presented, which was beneficial as the time gap may have led some to forget key details. Participants 
were also informed about the next steps planned for the workshop, providing them with a clear 
understanding of the agenda for the day and the activities ahead. 
The initial step involved introducing the Futures Table to the participants, serving as the foundation 
for the second workshop. A Futures Table is a widely utilised tool in Futures research, specifically 
designed to systematically gather alternative future states of qualitative variables and sometimes 
include quantitative variables (Lauttamäki, 2016; Varho & Tapio, 2013). This tool facilitates the 
creation of alternative future scenarios by integrating consistent states (Järvi et al. 2015; Nygrén, 
2019). The scenario development process is fundamentally anchored in the Futures Table (Varho & 
Tapio, 2013), allowing participants to analyse the topic in a more structured manner. By presenting 
multiple future states across various variables, the Futures Table enables the generation of a plethora 
of alternative future images that combine different components (Nygrén, 2019; Lauttamäki, 2016; 
Varho & Tapio, 2013). Given this characteristic, Varho and Tapio (2013) recommend that the final 
number of images or scenarios be kept to a manageable level. Lauttamäki (2016) suggests that ideally, 
constructing three to five distinct images would be preferable. However, considering a minimum of 
four images ensures a degree of novelty, as three images would typically be confined to a dystopian, 
utopian, and neutral state. 
35 
 
All participants were provided with an explanation of what a Futures Table is and how to utilise it for 
creating future scenarios. In preparation for the workshop, I developed a Futures Table that 
incorporated all the drivers identified through the conventional content analysis based on inputs 
gained from the first workshop, aiming to save time and effort for the second session. Participants 
were encouraged to add more drivers or variables of interest, provided they did not overlap with the 
existing ones. The initial task involved supplementing the table with additional drivers or variables 
for the identified drivers and generating alternative future values for all included variables. Following 
this activity, each group presented their Futures Table, showcasing the identified future scenarios. 
This presentation phase was audio recorded for future reference, with prior consent obtained from the 
participants. Afterwards, a coffee break was offered to refresh and energise everyone as they prepared 
to create vivid images of the future. 
Since creating four images was deemed an optimal approach, all participants were asked to produce 
a minimum of four images, or more if they wished, by combining internally consistent future states. 
Ultimately, each group shared their vibrant future images, resulting in a total of 13 distinct future 
images.  
3.3.4 Co-creating the Vision (FW3) 
The last workshop was designed to co-create a desired vision, focusing on proposing transition 
pathways along with policy measures to achieve the envisioned future. It began with a summary of 
our progress thus far and the upcoming steps necessary to reach the objectives of the Futures 
Workshop series. Participation was notably lower compared to the previous two workshops, resulting 
in the formation of a single group that combined all attendees, which was four.  
The workshop commenced with a brief theoretical explanation distinguishing between scenarios and 
future images. Given that 13 distinct future images had been developed during the second session, 
the objective was to utilise these images as a foundation for formulating a desirable Future scenario. 
Participants were encouraged to select one preferred and realistically attainable Future Image with 
participants’ opinions and to outline developmental pathways leading to the desired end state. 
Additionally, the years 2025, 2030, and 2035 were designated as the immediate future, the mid-point 
of the journey, and the desired future state, respectively. Participants were advised to construct 
pathways at both the national and local levels for the given timeline. Once the development paths 
were established, participants were assigned to write a scenario narrative, suggest required policy 
measures to achieve the desired future state and present their findings. This presentation was audio 
recorded with the prior consent of those involved for further analysis. Following this phase, a coffee 
36 
 
break was provided to refresh and energise everyone in preparation for the final step of the workshop 
series. 
To conclude the workshop series, there was a brief reflective discussion during which participants 
shared their thoughts on the workshops. I expressed my appreciation as the facilitator for the 
participants’ and organisers’ dedication to achieving the study’s objectives. The series wrapped up 
with a request for participants to complete a feedback form to gather insights to enhance the 
facilitator’s skills and improve the overall experience for future projects. 
3.4 Ethical Consideration 
To achieve the objectives of this study, it is crucial to consider ethical aspects that the researcher must 
address. To maintain the integrity of the research, ethical guidelines were meticulously followed per 
the Finnish National Board on Research Integrity. The Finnish National Board on Research Integrity 
(TENK 2012, 30) underscores the necessity of adhering to responsible conduct in research to uphold 
its credibility and reliability. Moreover, as this study involved human participants, it was essential to 
comply with the ethical principles disclosed by TENK (2019, 6). Informed consent, a fundamental 
principle in research involving human subjects (ibid., 9), was secured before commencing the 
workshops. Participants were allowed to review and sign a consent form (see Appendix 2) after it 
was thoroughly explained to them by the facilitator. They were informed of their right to withdraw 
from the study at any time and without justification, emphasising that participation was entirely 
voluntary. Further, I ensured that Participants’ anonymity was protected throughout the process 
according to the guidelines given for protecting privacy in Research publications by TENK (2019, 
14). Accordingly, group presentations from discussion rounds were recorded, transcribed, and 
promptly deleted to retain only anonymised transcriptions. These materials were accessible only to 
the researcher and her supervisors. Additionally, quotes included in the study findings were coded to 
safeguard the privacy of the workshop participants (See Appendix 4). The research was conducted 
with a strong emphasis on voluntary participation and ethical practices, ensuring transparency, 
confidentiality, and respect for the participants at every stage. 
3.4.1 Responsibility as a Futurist 
Apart from the above ethical responsibilities in the standards and guidelines specified for research 
purposes, the following subchapter will delve into the ethical responsibility of a Futurist considering 
this field of study from a more humanised and futuristic perspective. Given that humans and nature 
are deeply interconnected, I believe that the most crucial condition for sustainable development lies 
37 
 
in integrating environmental and economic considerations into decision-making processes. 
Unfortunately, the economic and environmental systems often remain largely disconnected from our 
concerns, as we typically do not perceive them as a comprehensive integrated system. This limited 
perspective can hinder our efforts toward creating a sustainable future, as essential factors may be 
overlooked in critical decision-making. Pursuing value in one domain, such as increasing profits, 
while inadvertently compromising value elsewhere, like through contributing to environmental 
pollution, can ultimately undermine any progress made toward a more sustainable world. 
To better comprehend the changes in the interrelations of nature and humans, Masini (2006, 1162) 
suggests three different approaches for Futures studies. The first one is termed the ‘prognosis’ 
approach, which is based on extrapolation. The second one is the ‘visions’ approach, which seeks the 
transformation of the present to a desirable future through a future vision. The last one is a 
combination of both elements, which is thinking based on ‘projects,’ with the knowledge of both 
possibility and probability, seeking to achieve the desirable future. Notably, Futures thinking is 
critical in identifying where we need to go, and not only for recognising where and how we are going, 
which means not just probable or possible futures, but also preferable futures (Dator et al. 1998; 
Masini, 2006). Furthermore, as Dator (2019, 3) underscored in his Laws of the Future, “Preferred 
Futures” are possible to envision and should be envisioned, despite “The Future” cannot be predicted. 
Emphasising the significance of these Preferred futures, facilitating individuals or groups in 
formulating preferred futures has been recognised as one of the major tasks of futures studies. 
However, with this position, we may have a critical question as to whose desirable future this is, on 
what basis and how this is preferable to another future (Poli, 2011, 405). Therefore, ethical values 
play a critical role in Futurists’ lives. 
The Futurist is also a part of the world that he tries to change with a future-oriented perspective. As 
Poli (2011, 404) argues, when a person is concerned about the future, an involvement sense of the 
future is essential for actions which reflect that the future is a fundamental element of making ethical 
decisions. Therefore, future thinking should be directly linked with ethical values (Dator et al. 1998; 
Poli, 2011) and social responsibility. In addition to that, Masini asserts that Futurists have a 
responsibility to support decision-making with creative thinking, as well as with rational judgment. 
Thus, the direction of the desirable future vision should be chosen as what we believe is the best 
(Armanto, 2024; Masini, 2006), reflecting the social interest. 
 As Masini (2006, 1164-1166) further emphasises, historically, these visions have functioned as the 
seeds of the process of changes or transformations. Moreover, if the vision has served as the direction 
38 
 
of the future, which is the seed of transformation which simultaneously supports pathways for 
realising that goal, it could be considered a learning process. This highlights the necessity of actively 
shaping the future, rather than passively adjusting it, which aims for the betterment of the world. The 
famous quote of John Schaar, "The future is not just a place we are going to, we create it," further 
emphasises the idea that the future is not something to passively wait for but rather something which 
we should actively shape through our actions and decisions. Therefore, futurists must support others 
in cultivating future-oriented thinking skills and developing their own learning processes to perform 
their responsibilities meaningfully (Masini, 2006, 1166) while attempting to establish a better world 
or at least a part of it (Dator, 2019, 14).  
3.4.2 Responsibility as a Facilitator 
As a responsible futures researcher, I conducted this research following the guidelines established by 
research authorities, placing a strong emphasis on ethical values. I felt a duty to assist others in 
cultivating future-oriented thinking skills as a facilitator throughout this series of workshops. My 
approach to facilitation was open and expansive, aiming to promote a participatory process that 
nurtured the creativity of the participants. While I provided clear instructions to help them understand 
the intended direction, the outcomes were entirely reliant on the participants’ creativity, with guidance 
limited to fundamental process instructions. By keeping the instructions open-ended and allowing 
ample time for creative exploration, I aimed to alleviate challenges that can hinder creativity while 
supporting participants in developing their own learning processes to engage meaningfully in their 
responsibilities. 
I view myself as a democratic facilitator, striving to empower every voice and promote an inclusive 
environment that encourages collaborative creativity. This, in turn, helped participants build greater 
self-confidence, as suggested by Vidal (2006, 14). Moreover, as he further asserts, the provided 
guidelines strike a suitable balance to foster creativity. Aligning with this, as noted by Heino (2021, 
9-12), I believe that the facilitation approach could be beneficial in future knowledge creation. Thus, 
I think that my approach as a facilitator proved effective in cultivating future-oriented thinking skills 
among participants while enhancing their learning processes and creating future knowledge to fulfil 
their responsibilities meaningfully (Masini, 2006, 1166). 
The subsequent chapter will comprehensively depict the outcomes derived from each of the workshop 
phases discussed in this chapter. Preferred futures and transition pathways that emerged through this 
methodological approach will be detailed, along with other insights generated. 
39 
 
4 Results 
This chapter explores the outcomes of the Futures Workshop series, which results in addressing the 
research questions. It begins by presenting the results of the first workshop with the key drivers and 
components of a sustainable economy. The chapter then presents various images of alternative 
carbon-neutral futures, which were developed by participants during the second workshop, with a 
focus on their preferred futures. Finally, the chapter concludes by detailing the preferred vision 
crafted by the participants along with the transition pathways required to achieve that vision, thus 
addressing both research questions of the study. 
4.1 Drivers and Elements of a Sustainable Economy (FW1) 
The results of the first futures workshop were threefold, as presented below.  
4.1.1 The Results of the Applauding Phase 
The initial segment of the workshop emphasised the favourable aspects of the current economy in 
Finland. Two groups identified a diverse array of elements they deemed advantageous for fostering a 
sustainable economy. One group noted the promotion of circular economy concepts and Finland’s 
robust culture of second-hand shopping as significant positive factors. They also recognised, 
however, that these elements have not yet realised their full potential. 
“...the circular economy and 2nd hand-shopping culture in Finland were good things even 
if they are not on the level that they could be already…” (A1) 
Moreover, the EU’s emissions trading system has been acknowledged as both effective and 
operationally sound. The ambitious regulations established by the EU for its member states, including 
the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), have been viewed as positive 
advancements that contribute to more sustainable supply chains. In addition, the incentives offered to 
private institutions are considered vital for fostering a carbon-neutral economy, complemented by the 
active efforts of various non-governmental organisations (NGOs) working towards sustainability. 
The Other group shared viewpoints that underscored the significance of NGOs and the influence of 
EU regulations. They depicted Finland as the “promised land of NGOs” and commended EU 
regulations for their leadership in global sustainability initiatives. They argue that other nations could 
gain from adopting the EU’s approach to legislating in support of a sustainable economy. However, 
this notion of EU leadership is inconsistent with the findings of Onofrei et al. (2022, 6), which indicate 
40 
 
that EU nations remain significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions due to excessive 
consumption, despite their claims of leading sustainability initiatives.  
Nevertheless, their discussion also highlighted additional elements, grouped into technology and 
innovation, infrastructure, funding, awareness, and societal impact. One key point raised was the 
significant level of innovation observed in Nordic countries relative to their population size. The pace 
of innovation is accelerating, particularly with advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI). These 
technological advancements have the potential to address challenges that were previously thought to 
be impossible, notwithstanding the accompanying complexities and challenges.  
In terms of awareness, this group stated a significant increase in understanding regarding the 
importance of a carbon-neutral economy and sustainable practices. There is a growing recognition of 
the connection between environmental and economic challenges, which was fundamental to the 
design and motivation of the study. Participants highlighted that solutions benefiting the environment 
are often aligned with comprehensive economic practices. An increasing acknowledgement of the 
fundamental need to consider climate impacts in decision-making and strategy development was also 
evident. 
Regarding funding, it was emphasised that Finland’s significant investment in Research and 
Development (R&D) plays a vital role in advancing sustainability initiatives. The country possesses 
extensive practical knowledge and engineering expertise, particularly in health-related fields such as 
biosciences and life sciences. This wealth of knowledge positions Finland well to address several 
pressing challenges. From a social perspective, the Nordic welfare model provides a robust 
framework that promotes safety and equality in participation during the transition toward 
sustainability. Consequently, this supportive environment fosters the potential for individuals to adopt 
necessary lifestyle changes.  
Their discussions indicate a cultural shift in consumption patterns, especially among younger 
generations, who are increasingly inclined toward positive and affordable sustainable choices, 
fostering a sense of optimism about the future. Finally, under the infrastructure category, it was noted 
that green electricity has emerged as a cost-effective energy source, encouraging consumers to make 
sustainable choices. This trend reinforces a broader commitment to sustainability and presents 
opportunities for individuals to engage in environmentally responsible behaviours while enjoying 
utility services without interruption. 
41 
 
4.1.2 The Results of the Problem Phase 
The second phase of this futures workshop focused on an in-depth discussion of the critical issues 
impeding the economy’s advancement toward carbon neutrality. One group indicated that while 
identifying, the numerous challenges were relatively straightforward, rather than the positive aspects 
currently present in the system, which proved to be more complex. This observation emphasises the 
significance and timeliness of the theme of this study in addressing the prevailing issues in the 
economy towards carbon neutrality. They outlined several significant obstacles, such as the 
inefficiency of existing regulations, a common lack of long-term perspective, insufficient pricing for 
environmental degradation, and the tendency to prioritise immediate concerns over sustainable future 
goals. 
 During the discussions, participants emphasised inefficiency in regulation as a pressing concern, 
particularly due to poorly designed incentives associated with market mechanisms aimed at 
encouraging cleaner production methods. The notion of “going green” mentioned by that group, 
which encompasses a range of sustainable practices, often lacks the necessary financial backing and 
is frequently undermined by a capitalist framework that does not adequately support optimal 
regulatory practices. A pointed comment from one of the group participants summarised this dilemma 
as follows. 
“...investors would take their money out if the company did not achieve their short-term 
goals…” (A1) 
The lack of perspective was also a key focus, as participants noted that climate challenges are often 
downgraded to a lower priority on people’s lists of concerns. Many struggle to reconcile the urgency 
of climate change with their immediate personal needs. One participant from that group expressed 
this conflict as follows. 
  “...should I think about my personal needs in 5 years or 15 years, or do I see further in 
life? So, to achieve short-term goals, can I actually think of future generations...” (A1) 
Furthermore, the workshop discussions highlighted the necessity of establishing a price for the 
environmental harm caused by human activities. Currently, no effective pricing mechanism exists to 
hold individuals and corporations accountable for their ecological impact. Moreover, participants 
pointed to the complexity and overlap of various regulations, including an array of standards and 
reporting systems that govern sustainability efforts, which can often create confusion rather than 
clarity. Deepening this issue is the inadequacy of some global instruments designed to address these 
challenges. The conversation also touched upon the uncertainties troubling the market, resulting from 
42 
 
political instability, geopolitical conflicts, and economic dependencies that divert focus away from 
climate change initiatives. Interestingly, participants identified a sense of stagnation within the EU, 
where many stakeholders appear to hesitate, waiting for others to take the lead or for regulatory 
changes to prompt action toward sustainability. This collective inactivity underscores the need for 
bold leadership and decisive action in the face of urgent climate challenges. 
 In this phase, the other group also identified similar problematic areas that hinder the sustainability 
transition, echoing the observations of previous groups but from different perspectives. Key issues 
include inefficient and slow public regulations, inadequate quality and speed in commercialisation, a 
mindset driven by fear and uncertainty, biased or one-sided conversations, and a lack of investments. 
 Inefficient public regulation often emphasises cost efficiency without adequately addressing climate 
change challenges, subsidies and support directed towards harmful practices in traditional sectors like 
agriculture, alongside bureaucratic inefficiencies. A fear and uncertainty-driven mindset reveals a 
tendency towards short-term thinking rather than long-term solutions, influenced by a neoliberal 
economic agenda. Biased or one-sided discussions encompass the polarisation of knowledge, the 
erosion of democratic institutions, the tendency of policymakers to underestimate the negative 
impacts of climate change, and the spread of disinformation and misinformation.  
Furthermore, the lack of investments constitutes another critical challenge. This highlights historical 
structural issues within Finnish investment practices. It was characterised by the adherence to 
outdated financing and research institutions without the involvement of innovative disruptors. Lack 
of proper investment is also revealed through a focus primarily on wind power among all renewable 
energy. Additionally, the lack of quality and expedited commercialisation pertains to the transition of 
research and development (R&D) and technology, often prioritising opportunistic business models 
over sustainable long-term benefits. They further argued that this issue is intensified by the isolation 
of science and technology from other disciplines within the education system. 
4.1.3 Strengthening and Solving Drivers 
In the third phase of this workshop, participants were tasked with identifying the reinforcing and 
mitigating factors associated with the key problems identified in the previous activity. One group 
expressed three primary concerns: the absence of a price for the harm caused by individuals, 
inefficient regulatory frameworks, and the prioritisation of other challenges at the expense of climate 
issues. They indicated the lack of consistent global regulation and inadequate measurement of Gross 
Domestic Product (GDP) as strengthening the dilemma of the price for the harm. Proposed solutions 
43 
 
to this challenge include the establishment of global directives to steer financial investments away 
from fossil fuels, as well as the implementation of fiscal mechanisms such as tax incentives for 
companies that meet climate mitigation targets, which is consistent with the findings of Onfrei et al. 
(2022). 
Furthermore, the establishment of a global democratic parliament was highlighted as a potential 
solution, as it could facilitate collective decision-making at a global level. However, participants 
expressed concerns about the effectiveness of the United Nations (UN) in this context, viewing it as 
insufficiently strong as a global mechanism. They also acknowledged the possibility that such a 
democratic framework might potentially disrupt existing regulations, given the uncertainty of its 
operational arrangements. Radical activism was suggested as a possible opportunity for stimulating 
change. 
Participants considered inefficient regulations to be impaired by the frequent mismeasurement of 
significant variables. This point was reflected in group discussions, with one of the group participants 
stating,  
“...even the companies that are not performing in climate-friendly areas might receive 
favourable evaluations from the administration, for instance...” (A1).  
Conversely, the role of education, an anti-corruption mindset, and legislation support for innovation 
emerged as potential solutions to the problems posed by inefficient regulations. It was suggested that 
educational initiatives could foster the development of effective regulations, as the current issues 
extend beyond mere inefficiency, however, they also incorporate a lack of political will, as many 
stakeholders seek to hinder or disrupt ambitious climate objectives. Legislative frameworks that 
promote innovation, rather than restrain it, were deemed essential to support the sustainable 
transition.  
The final key issue identified was the lack of perspective and the prioritisation of other challenges, 
leading participants to express concerns that individuals and nations may encounter a worsened 
version of climate change along with growing geopolitical tensions. This polarisation could further 
increase unexpected consequences that are not yet fully understood. Concerning the tangible impacts 
of climate change, such as water scarcity, the severity of future challenges remains difficult to assess. 
Participants believed that engaging in value conversations from diverse perspectives could yield 
beneficial insights. They contemplated the necessary actions and the historical role of religion in 
shaping responses to climate-related issues, recognising its continuing influence in many contexts. 
As such, the inclusion of broader populations in discussions and decision-making processes was 
44 
 
deemed critical for addressing these pressing challenges, highlighting the tension between democratic 
engagement and singular perspectives.  
In this phase, the other group identified a significant issue: the tendency to think based on fear and 
uncertainty. They proposed that this issue could be addressed through the implementation of a mission 
economy, as well as the promotion of literacy and wisdom, alongside innovative collaboration 
methods. A mission economy can be seen as an objective-driven economic model that leverages 
resources, techniques, tools, and guidelines from the private sector for public sector use. Furthermore, 
it embodies a broader framework involving collaboration across all societal sectors, both public and 
private. Together, these sectors can form alliances dedicated to achieving specific goals, such as 
enhancing the healthcare system using public assets, which may be realised through entrepreneurial 
business models. This approach also encourages the identification of best practices across various 
industries and fields. Furthermore, financial instruments and assets which endorse sustainability can 
support solving this issue, aligning with green investments reported by Carlsson Kanyama (2008). 
Furthermore, the concepts of literacy and wisdom are embedded in meaningful exchange and co-
creation of knowledge, with even alternative future thinking considered as a potential solution. 
However, irresponsible rhetoric, unhealthy economic structures, and flawed information validation 
were identified as aggravating factors contributing to fear-based and uncertain thinking. Delving 
deeper into the topic, the lack of science-based knowledge, traditional interaction forums, media 
fragmentation, and the challenges posed by AI to our perception of reality, sole focus on shareholder 
interests, which lead to unnecessary exposure to risks, were discussed as negative influences during 
this phase. 
Following the first futures workshop, thematic qualitative content analysis was performed using 
NVivo. As outlined in the methodology section, I employed a conventional content analysis approach 
(Hsieh & Shannon, 2005, 1286), starting with observations that allowed codes to emerge naturally 
from the data during the analysis. The thematic qualitative content analysis identified several common 
drivers generated from the workshop materials, including awareness, consumption patterns, 
economic structures, education, goals and priorities, industry practices, investments, laws and 
regulations, the price of harm, societal values, taxes, technology, and patterns of thinking. Most of 
the identified drivers corresponded with established findings in the existing literature (Carlsson-
Kanyama, 2008; Eurofound and EEA, 2023; Firoiu et al. 2022; Geels, 2018; Kainuma et al. 2024; 
Madurai Elavarasan et al. 2022; Onfrei et al. 2022), particularly concerning consumption patterns, 
45 
 
economic structures, education, investments, laws and regulations, the price of harm, taxes and 
technology. 
4.2 Images of Alternative Carbon-Neutral Futures (FW2)  
The second Futures workshop commenced by building upon the insights gathered from the previous 
session. The drivers identified earlier served as the foundation for the Futures table, facilitating the 
creation of future images. The initial variables were further categorised into sub-variables, according 
to group preferences, and additional variables were incorporated, enriching the future images. 
Furthermore, urban structure, daily consumption, forestry, transportation systems, the energy sector, 
and agriculture were included to enhance clarity and provide a broader context, as these topics had 
been notably absent in the first workshop yet are essential for considering a sustainable economy as 
consistently recognized as critical in the literature (Carlsson-Kanyama, 2008; Geels, 2018; Madurai 
Elavarasan et al. 2022; Siljander & Ekholm, 2018). 
Each group started filling the Futures table with alternative future states, ultimately creating diverse 
sets of multiple future images for a carbon-neutral economy in Finland by 2035. Consequently, every 
group successfully generated several distinct future images, encompassing both a preferred and an 
undesired future, resulting in a total of 13 unique alternative future images.  
4.2.1 A Spectrum of Futures from Present Policies on Steroids to the Silver Bullet 
Group 1, for instance, produced four distinct future images: ‘Present Policies on Steroids’, ‘Silver 
Bullet’, ‘Era of Protectionism’, and ‘Implosion’ (refer to Table 1). A summary of all the future images 
generated by group 1 is presented in the table below. 
Table 1: Future Images by Group 1 
THE YEAR 2035 
Present policies on 
steroids 
Silver Bullet Era of protectionism 
Implosion 
 
Investments     
Investment Time 
Horizon 
Perpetual Long term Mid term Short term 
Investment Scale Medium investment Large investment 
EU-led investment 
policies 
Low investment 
Economic Structure 
Neoliberal market 
economy 
Mission economy Market economy Market economy 
Laws and 
Regulations 
    
Regulations affecting 
citizens 
Too liberal Liberal enough Liberal enough Passivating 
Regulation affecting 
the enterprise 
Driving oligopoly Driving happiness Too restrictive Driving economy 
Technology/Innovati
on 
    
46 
 
THE YEAR 2035 
Present policies on 
steroids 
Silver Bullet Era of protectionism 
Implosion 
 
Innovation investment 
shortly 
Shrinking economy, no 
investment 
New Nokia 
Finland prevails with the 
help of the startup scene 
Sweden takes over 
"Winner takes it all" 
Innovation 
disruptiveness 
Protective policies 
strangle global economic 
development, status quo 
Quantum 
technologies become 
a strong economic 
change factor 
Europe is left behind 
Value creation is 
minimal; Finland is the 
supplier of raw 
materials 
Consumption 
Pattern 
No goods to consume 
Consumers should 
stop consuming too 
much 
Circular economy Laissez-faire 
Goals & Priorities     
Business goals Short-term optimization 
Responsible 
enterprises 
Consolidation of assets 
"Googleitization" 
Business as usual 
Price for harm Disaster recovery mode Polluter pays Polluter pays Taxpayers pay 
Industry Practices     
Steel industry 
practices 
Fast impacts by closing 
traditional business 
sectors 
Steel replaced by 
synthetics 
Holistic circularity as 
business as usual 
Hydrogen and other 
alternative new 
industries fail 
Social Values     
Security-related social 
values 
Vulnerability Society of trust Society of trust Securitization 
Taxes     
Human vs. robot taxes 
No income tax, only 
consumption and harm 
are taxed 
Taxing automation 
will resolve the 
welfare state crisis 
Humans and robots are 
taxed equally 
Human work is taxed 
more than robot work 
Thinking Pattern     
Ownership of media 
space 
Fragmented isolation 
The multitude of 
voices, literacy and 
interaction prevail 
Science-based 
information enforcement 
False media, 
disinformation 
Urban structure 
Keep on building 
shopping malls, and area 
segregation increases 
Repurposing and 
recycling of buildings 
and infrastructure 
becomes the norm 
Shrivelling urban centres 
Securitisation and 
private security agents 
take to the streets 
Daily consumption 
Consumption increases: 
decision-making is based 
solely on the prices of 
goods 
Conscious consuming 
becomes the norm 
Second and peer to peer 
as norm 
Wealth gap 
Forestry 
Economic exploitation, 
loss of diversity 
Holistic diverse 
drivers, an increase in 
value per unit, and a 
decrease in volume 
Partial change driven by 
a new generation of 
private forest owners 
Inability to adapt to 
climate change 
Transport system 
Privatisation of public 
transport 
Electric public 
transport for all 
Mobility as a service 
available in urban 
centres and remote 
areas keeps using fossil 
Transition to biofuels is 
painfully slow and 
expensive 
Energy sector Soaring prices 
Unlimited sustainable 
energy resources 
Nuclear and increasing 
wind energy prevail 
Lack of investment and 
available energy 
resources constrict 
industry development 
Agriculture sector 
Consolidation, the import 
of food increases, and the 
quality of food is worse 
New local and 
sustainable industrial-
scale agricultural 
production 
Traditional industrial food 
production, imports 
blocked with tariffs 
Ramp down of local 
agriculture 
 
 Among the four distinct future images, the ‘Era of Protectionism’ and ‘Implosion’ images present 
a more ambiguous outlook (refer to Table 1), remaining stagnated within a market economy 
framework. The ‘Present Policies on Steroids’ image, however, is the most pessimistic alternative, 
as it signals a shift toward a neo-liberal market economy with investment directives that significantly 
47 
 
alter the economic structure. This deregulation adversely affects citizens, leading to an oligopolistic 
environment where a limited number of enterprises dominate the market. The economy is supposed 
to shrink, resulting in diminished investment and inadequate consumer goods. Business objectives 
may prioritize short-term optimization, exacerbating vulnerabilities related to security and societal 
values.  
The tax system, devoid of income-based assessments, would rely exclusively on consumption and 
harm caused by the people. A fragmented media would support increasing individual isolation, while 
the continuous construction of shopping malls symbolises a relentless drive toward consumerism. 
Consequently, consumption is expected to expand, positioning the pricing of goods as the primary 
determinant of market development. Economic exploitation of forests would lead to a loss of 
diversity. Furthermore, public transportation would be privatized, and the prices of energy would 
soar. An increased reliance on imported agricultural products may deteriorate quality while inflating 
food prices, thereby exacerbating existing social inequalities. 
4.2.1.1 Preferred Image One: ‘Silver Bullet’ 
Among the four visual representations analysed, the ‘Silver Bullet’ emerges as the most favourable 
depiction for the future (refer to Table 1). A central element of the ‘Silver Bullet’ narrative is the 
emergence of a new technological leader similar to Nokia, with quantum technologies playing a 
pivotal role in catalysing economic transformation. Urban planning will prioritise the repurposing 
and recycling of existing buildings and infrastructure. Access to electric public transportation will be 
universal, alongside an ample supply of sustainable energy sources and innovative, sustainable 
agricultural practices on an industrial scale. 
The investment time horizon directed toward Finland is characterised as long-term, promoting 
substantial financial commitments. The economic framework is conceptualised as a “mission 
economy”, wherein collaboration between the public and private sectors is essential for the execution 
of defined missions. Regulatory measures impacting citizens are anticipated to be liberal, while those 
affecting enterprises are designed to prioritise the enhancement of well-being. Consequently, the 
promotion of societal happiness is presented as the primary driver for enterprise regulation.  
A notable shift in consumer behaviour is expected, as individuals are likely to downsize 
overconsumption in response to increased levels of happiness with minimalism. In this context, the 
financial burden of environmental harm is assigned to the polluter. Furthermore, traditional steel 
production would be supplanted by synthetic alternatives. An environment characterised by mutual 
48 
 
trust regarding security concerns would prevail, cultivating social connections among 
individuals. The implementation of a substantial tax on automation, rather than on human labour, 
offers a potential solution to the challenges posed by the welfare state and sustainability crises. 
Intellectual discourse is expected to be enriched by a diverse array of perspectives with literacy. 
Meaningful interaction will become a societal norm.  
4.2.2 A Spectrum of Futures from Regression to Progression 
 Group 2 creatively envisioned four distinct future images: ‘Regression’, ‘Progression’, ‘Stale’, and 
‘Utopy’ (refer to Table 2). Each of these futures presents a vivid illustration of potential outcomes, 
reflecting a diverse array of possibilities. The summary of all the futures generated by Group 2 is 
organised in the table below. These distinct images include a desired and an undesired future.  
Table 2: Future Images by Group 2 
THE YEAR 2035 Regression Progression Stale Utopy 
Investments     
Investment Time Horizon  long   
Investment Scale  EU-scale investment national  
Economic Structure 
industry-intensive, 
public 
 service-intensive, 
public 
service-intensive, 
private 
Laws and Regulations     
EU regulation   Increase Less binding 
Technology/Innovation     
Other  Food tech Electrification Quantum computing 
Energy innovations  Bioenergy Nuclear Hydro-tech 
Consumption Pattern Cheap crap    
Awareness/Literacy Non-literate Forerunner Knowledge  
Goals & Priorities  Conservation of nature Social Wellbeing  
Price for harm    Financial sanctions 
Industry Practices Lagging Pioneer   
Sustainability 
Education 
None In all levels Only in universities In all levels 
Social Values  Global Individualism  
Taxes  Consumption based Income-based  
Thinking Pattern Doubtful about future Hopeful about the future Linear thinking  
Energy Less  More Massively more 
Geopolitics War  Tension Peace 
Urban structure gets worse Enhance Increases Clean and efficient 
Daily consumption Inequality 
overconsumption 
decreases 
Increases In balance 
Forestry is destroyed increases decreases Barely touched 
Transport system is destroyed develops deteriorates 
Dynamic and 
intelligent 
Energy sector dependent on fossils innovations trust nuclear Abundant 
Agriculture sector land intensive plant-based meat-based Provides all we need 
 
In the ‘Stale’ image (refer to Table 2), investments are characterised by their national scope within a 
services-intensive economy. In this image, the public sector plays a significant role in the economic 
structure. The regulatory environment established by the European Union has been intensifying, 
accompanied by a sustained push towards electrification, evidenced by the expected increase in the 
49 
 
emergence of electricity-based technologies. While nuclear energy sources remain operational, 
sustainability education is predominantly constrained to universities, encouraging a culture of 
individualism. Taxation is primarily income-based, and there is an evident need for a greater energy 
supply. Geopolitical tensions further complicate these circumstances. 
In the ‘Utopy’ image, the public sector’s involvement is minimised, allowing the private sector to 
flourish and meet the needs of society through enhanced services and products. This mechanism 
denies the necessity for extensive regulations, as companies are motivated to optimise their offerings. 
Efficient hydro technology emerges as a viable source of renewable energy, characterised by low 
energy consumption to generate hydroelectric power. Sustainable education and environmental 
consciousness are woven into the fabric of daily life, beginning at the elementary level and spreading 
to all stages of education. In addition to balanced energy consumption, the sources used are cleaner 
and more efficient. This image envisions a world in which all nations coexist in peace. 
 Conversely, the ‘Regression’ image represents an undesired future state marked by widespread 
destruction and pervasive uncertainty about the future. The absence of sustainability education leaves 
individuals unaware of sustainable practices, contributing to intensified inequality amidst ongoing 
conflict. Consumers remain obsessed with low-cost and low-quality goods, while the energy sector 
continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels, and the agriculture industry remains land-intensive. 
4.2.2.1 Preferred Image Two: ‘Progression’ 
Among the four prospective future images, the ‘Progression’ image emerges as the most desirable 
to the participants. This image emphasises greater conservation of natural resources as the goal of the 
economy. A global social value system that is universally acknowledged has emerged as a defining 
characteristic. Sustainability education would be expanded beyond higher education to encompass all 
educational levels to become the forerunner through enhancing awareness.  Notably, this approach is 
expected to cultivate a collective sense of hope regarding the future, which cultivates optimism.  
Enhanced investments, particularly at the EU level Industries are anticipated to engage in a 
competitive drive towards innovation and excellence. Taxation would shift towards a consumption-
based model to make the polluter pay. Urban structures are expected to become significantly more 
efficient and enhanced, while over-consumption would decrease notably compared to current global 
levels with the values considering resource scarcity. Furthermore, an advanced transportation system 
and greater innovations, particularly within the energy sector, are anticipated. Particularly, the field 
of agriculture will be plant-based. 
50 
 
4.2.3 A Spectrum of Futures from Planet B to Back to Nature or Sustainable Dream World 
 Group 3 has articulated five distinct future images: ‘Planet B’, ‘Excessive Consumerism’, 
‘Technology Solves Everything’, ‘Back to Nature’, and ‘Sustainable Dream World’ (refer to Table 
3). These images encompass a comprehensive range of possibilities, including both preferred and 
undesirable futures. This diversity enriches the discussion and offers a diverse range of perspectives 
on what may lie ahead. 
Table 3: Future Images by Group 3 
YEAR 2035 Planet B 
Excessive 
consumerism 
Technology 
solves everything 
Back to nature 
Sustainable dream 
world 
Investments      
Investment Time 
Horizon 
Short short / medium 
Medium long & 
Super long 
Super long Super long 
Sustainable 
Investment Scale 
No investment moderate Substantial Moderate Substantial 
Economic 
Structure 
     
Mode of economy Capitalism capitalism Capitalism Sharing economy 
Sharing 
economy/welfare 
state 
Structure of 
production 
Unsustainable 
and short-term 
Large amounts of 
imported goods 
with no 
responsibility 
High productivity 
and high-tech 
Nature-based self-
sufficiency 
High-tech 
necessities 
Laws and 
Regulations 
     
National 
Climate and 
environmental 
legislation are 
being weakened 
Climate and 
environmental 
legislation remain 
at the same level 
Climate and 
environmental 
legislation are 
being strengthened 
Climate and 
environmental 
legislation remain at 
the same level 
Climate and 
environmental 
legislation are being 
strengthened 
EU level 
No new 
directives/commit
ments 
A limited number 
of binding 
directives, 
Ambitious 
directives, and 
commitments 
Ambitious 
directives and 
commitments 
A limited number of 
binding directives, 
Ambitious directives 
and commitments 
Ambitious directives 
and commitments 
Global 
No new 
agreements 
Fewer agreements 
More binding 
targets 
More binding 
agreements by a few 
countries 
More binding targets 
Climate and 
environmental 
regulation 
No effort Some effort High effort Some effort High effort 
Technology/Innova
tion 
     
Carbon capture 
innovations 
No innovations  
Technology-based 
solutions 
Nature-based 
solutions 
Nature-based 
solutions 
Energy efficiency Low targets Medium targets Ambitious targets Ambitious targets Ambitious targets 
Energy sources Fossil fuel Mixed sources 
Mixed sources / 
nuclear 
Zero-emission 
energy sources 
Zero-emission & 
Nuclear 
Consumption 
Pattern 
Negative 
handprint of 
consumption 
Negative handprint 
of consumption 
 Positive handprint of 
consumption 
Positive handprint of 
consumption 
Awareness/Literac
y 
Low Medium 
High & 
Fragmented 
Fragmented High 
Goals & Priorities 
Emissions 
exceeding 
planetary 
boundaries 
Emissions 
exceeding 
planetary 
boundaries 
Emissions 
exceeding 
planetary 
boundaries 
Degrowth 
Doughnut 
economy/degrowth 
51 
 
YEAR 2035 Planet B 
Excessive 
consumerism 
Technology 
solves everything 
Back to nature 
Sustainable dream 
world 
Price for harm      
Global agreements No Moderate High Moderate High 
National and EU-
level agreements 
No Moderate High Moderate High 
Industry Practices      
Willingness to 
change/ambition 
Low Low High Medium High 
Sustainability 
Education 
     
Media literacy 
Disinformation 
increases 
Education as a 
privilege 
Education as a 
privilege 
Education as a 
privilege 
Science-based 
knowledge is largely 
available at 
education 
Social Values 
Individualism & 
national borders 
closed 
Individualism 
global awareness 
and care 
global awareness 
and care 
global awareness 
and care 
Taxes 
Sustainable 
practices are 
priced more 
Taxes stay as is 
Sustainable 
practices are taxed 
less 
Sustainable 
practices are taxed 
less 
Sustainable 
practices are taxed 
less 
Thinking Pattern 
Focused on the 
present benefits 
Focused on the 
present benefits 
Future-oriented 
thinking 
Future-oriented 
thinking 
Future-oriented 
thinking 
Urban structure 
The regionally 
collapsed urban 
structure on 
Earth 
  
Part of the 
population has left 
the cities to live a 
self-sufficient 
lifestyle. 
Urbanisation, cities 
are built sustainably 
with lots of green 
space. 
Daily consumption 
People need to 
try to take care of 
their basic 
needs, such as 
clean water 
  
The amount of 
consumption is 
divided by ideology 
and region. 
People consume 
less and use less 
energy. 
Forestry 
Barely any 
forests left, areas 
turned into 
deserts 
  
Part of the forest is 
highly protected, and 
part over 
overconsumed. 
A balance between 
protection and 
sustainable use 
Transport system 
Regions that are 
habitable 
become 
overcrowded. 
Transport is only 
available to rich 
people. Air-
conditioned 
vehicles. 
  
Localism is on the 
rise. Demand for 
aviation decreases. 
In cities, 
concentrated free 
public transport and 
cycling are made 
very accessible. 
Energy sector 
High prices for 
fossil fuels with 
no alternatives. 
  Focus on distributed 
systems. 
Energy consumption 
decreases 
significantly, and 
what is needed is 
produced with zero 
emissions. 
Agriculture sector 
Dryness and low 
yield 
  
Diverse traditional 
farming practices are 
gaining popularity. 
Diversified, no meat 
production. 
 
The most undesirable future scenario, referred to as ‘Planet B’ (refer to Table 3), illustrates a reality 
where Planet A is on the edge of destruction. In this context, the investment horizon for environmental 
initiatives remains significantly short, with minimal to no investments undertaken. The prevailing 
economic framework is characterised by capitalism, operating under a production model that 
prioritises short-term benefits over sustainability. A lack of comprehensive laws and regulations has 
52 
 
resulted in the absence of new agreements or efforts directed towards climate and environmental 
governance.  
Furthermore, inadequate innovation in carbon capture processes. Energy efficiency targets are 
alarmingly low, and energy production relies predominantly on fossil fuels, leading to a negative 
consumption handprint driven by existing policies. Public awareness regarding environmental 
literature remains limited, and emissions are surpassing planetary boundaries without any effective 
pricing mechanisms for environmental harm. The industrial sector displays a significant reluctance 
to adopt transformative practices, while media literacy is hindered by a rise in disinformation. Social 
values in this image tend to incline towards individualism, worsened by the closure of national 
borders. The sustainable practices are being heavily taxed, resulting in high costs. The global mindset 
is predominantly focused on immediate benefits. 
 In this gloomy and depressing future, urban infrastructures have deteriorated as populations migrate 
to areas where water is still accessible. Cities become deserted, and the loss of forests leads to 
widespread desertification. Transportation becomes a privilege for the wealthiest, while habitable 
regions become overcrowded. Fossil fuel prices soar without viable alternatives, and the agricultural 
sector suffers from drought and declining yields.  
Compared to the preferred images of ‘Sustainable Dream World’ and ‘Back to Nature’, which will 
be detailed below, the images of ‘Excessive Consumerism’ and ‘Technology Solves Everything’ 
rank lower on the desirability scale, even though they are considered better than ‘Planet B’. 
4.2.3.1 Preferred Image Three: ‘Sustainable Dream World’ 
Among the five distinct images, the ‘Sustainable Dream World’ image emerges as the most 
desirable. The goal of the economy is degrowth, prioritising the principles of the Doughnut economy 
with ideologies of sharing and a welfare state structure. The predominant mindset shifts towards a 
future-oriented perspective. Consequently, social values are oriented towards global awareness and 
collective responsibility, with sustainable practices facing lower tax burdens.  Consumption patterns 
reflect a positive handprint, as public awareness and knowledge about sustainability issues are 
significantly enhanced. The pricing of environmental harm is elevated at all levels, encouraging a 
high willingness among companies to embrace change and ambition. Education in sustainable 
practices is based on scientific literacy and is readily available across various educational tiers.  
In this image, the investment horizon is extended, with a recognition of long-term effects and 
substantial financial commitment to sustainability. encouraging a high-tech production model that 
53 
 
aligns with sustainability goals. Climate and environmental regulations are robust, incorporating 
binding targets and ambitious directives. Innovations in carbon capture primarily utilize nature-based 
solutions, emphasising energy efficiency and the transition to zero-emission energy sources. Urban 
development is characterised by sustainable construction practices, with abundant green spaces 
integrated into city planning. A balance is maintained between urbanisation and population influx. 
Generally, consumption rates and energy usage decline significantly, with urban areas prioritising 
free public transport and cycling initiatives. Accessibility to renewable energy sources is drastically 
enhanced, and all production processes achieve zero emissions. The agricultural field diversifies, 
evidently excluding meat production.  
4.2.3.2 Preferred Image Four: ‘Back to Nature’ 
Despite the “Sustainable dream world” being recognised as the preferred future image by the group, 
in my personal view, the ‘Back-to-Nature’ image also appears as a pragmatic and yet desirable future 
image among the five distinct images presented.  
The pursuit of degrowth constitutes the central goal of the economy, prioritising nature-based self-
sufficiency with ideologies of the sharing economy. Consumption patterns reflect a positive 
handprint, with a predominant mindset shifting towards a future-oriented perspective. Part of the 
population has left the cities to live a self-sufficient lifestyle, while localism is on the rise.  Diverse 
traditional farming practices are gaining popularity while innovations are based on nature-based 
solutions. Social values are oriented towards global awareness and collective responsibility, with 
sustainable practices facing lower tax burdens. Energy innovations emphasise energy efficiency and 
the transition to zero-emission energy sources.  
4.3 Co-creating the Vision (FW3) 
The last Futures workshop aimed to collaboratively create a vision for a preferred economy. With 
only one group participating, they identified a preferred, yet realistically attainable future image 
focused on achieving a carbon-neutral economy in Finland by 2035, based on the future images 
developed in the previous workshop. The group began to explore the transition toward this preferred 
future, which laid the groundwork for outlining the necessary development steps by concentrating on 
the desired end state of 2035. They evaluated what must have emerged and what milestones must be 
reached by that time to ensure the scenario’s plausibility. The preferred scenario narrative they 
formulated explains a picture of a transformative future for a carbon-neutral economy as follows. 
54 
 
“Imagine the year 2035, when cities and communities have transformed into a vibrant 
and sustainable economy. The skyline is dotted with repurposed buildings, once 
abandoned or underutilised, now bustling with new life and purpose. Old factories, office 
buildings, and shopping centres have been converted to support human creativity 
flourishing in a world with scarce resources, steering in a new wave of enterprises 
embracing the Green New Deal and producing commodities sustainably, showcasing the 
norm of repurposing and recycling infrastructure. 
In this future, conscious consumption is re-negotiated based on knowledge and 
information, and it is integral to the prevailing economy. People prioritise quality over 
quantity, opting for services instead of products, as well as for products that are durable, 
repairable, and ethically produced. The market is driven by holistic, diverse factors that 
concentrate on enhancing the value per unit while decreasing overall volume. This shift 
has resulted in a flourishing economy where businesses innovate to create high-value, 
sustainable products. 
Electric public transport is extensive, seamlessly connecting urban and rural areas. Buses, 
trams, and trains glide silently through the streets, powered by boundless sustainable 
energy resources. Solar panels, wind turbines, and advanced energy storage systems 
ensure that clean energy is always available, significantly reducing the carbon footprint 
to near zero. 
Agriculture has experienced a revolution with the introduction of new local and 
sustainable industrial-scale production methods. Urban farms and greenhouses are 
common sights, providing fresh, locally grown produce throughout the year. Forestry has 
undergone a disruptive change in its value system, with a focus on carbon capture, 
biodiversity, and nature preservation becoming the primary drivers in forestry. These 
innovations have made food systems more resilient and less reliant on lengthy supply 
chains, thereby ensuring food security for everyone. 
The concept of locality is the key strength of the future societies of trust. Value creation 
is deeply rooted in local narratives. Local production has already demonstrated to have 
a lasting impact on the economy, creating happiness and empowering members of the 
society.” (C1) 
Based on this scenario narrative of the envisioned preferred future, developed by the participants, I 
have created an illustration to represent this ideal vision in a simple yet appealing manner (see Figure 
3). Since this image has been generated using Generative AI (ChatGPT), some details may not be 
represented accurately; rather, it aims to depict the carbon-neutral economy simply. This illustration 
serves as a basic visual representation of the narrative articulated by the participants, providing a 
compelling glimpse into the future they strive to achieve. 
55 
 
 
Figure 3: The ‘Silver Bullet’ Image Illustrated with Generative AI Using Scenario Narrative (ChatGPT) 
 
4.3.1 Scenario Pathways from 2025 to 2035 
After that, to bring this vision to life, the participants repeated this process by identifying the 
milestones needed by 2030 and determining the immediate actions required by 2025 at both the 
national and local levels. They methodically considered the key milestones and necessary changes 
that must occur over the years to ensure the envisioned scenario remains achievable and grounded. 
With their preferred vision in place, they constructed a development pathway extending from 2025 
to 2035 and finalised the scenario narrative based on group discussions. The resulting development 
pathway is clearly outlined in the table below (refer to Table 4), showcasing the strategic events and 
timelines necessary to realise their shared vision for a sustainable future. 
Table 4: Scenario pathways from 2025 to 2035 
Milestones 2025 2030 2035 
Industry 
practices 
Renegotiating remote 
work. 
 
Taking advantage of the change in 
the global supply chain system will 
lift the forerunners of a circular 
economy. 
 
Imagine the year 2035, when cities and 
communities have transformed into vibrant, 
sustainable economies. The skyline is 
dotted with repurposed buildings, once 
abandoned or underutilized, now bustling 
with new life and purpose.  
Cities and 
Infrastructures 
Adapting to the disruption 
of several industries 
because of digitalization, 
automatization and AI. 
 
Abandoned factories and city 
centres all over the world are 
becoming more prominent. 
 
Old factories, office buildings and shopping 
malls have been converted to support 
human creativity flourishing in a world of 
scarcity of resources, a new wave of 
enterprises embracing the Green New Deal 
and producing commodities sustainably, 
showcasing the norm of repurposing and 
recycling infrastructure. 
56 
 
Milestones 2025 2030 2035 
 
Society and 
Welfare 
Political problems related 
to immigration are 
resolved. 
 
Europe resolves challenges 
regarding innovation and the speed 
of commercialization. 
 
Finland, as a member state of the 
European Union, overcomes 
challenges related to matching the 
education system’s capabilities with 
the market’s demand for workforce. 
 
The decoupling of human labour 
and livelihood is enforced with 
basic income. 
 
 
In this future, conscious consuming is re-
negotiated based on knowledge and 
information and is integral to the 
prevailing economy. People prioritize 
quality over quantity, choosing services 
over products and products that are 
durable, repairable, and ethically produced. 
The market is driven by holistic, diverse 
drivers that focus on increasing the value 
per unit while decreasing overall volume. 
This shift has led to a thriving economy 
where businesses innovate to create high-
value, sustainable products. 
 
Renewable 
Energy 
Mining regulation and 
taxation of the mining 
industry revenue are 
scrutinized to ensure 
sustainable industry 
practices locally. 
 
The war in Ukraine has come to a 
resolution, and once again, peace 
prevails in Europe. 
 
A new European energy market 
based solely on renewable 
energies is emerging. 
 
 
Electric public transport is ubiquitous, 
seamlessly connecting urban and rural 
areas. Buses, trams, and trains glide 
silently through the streets, powered by 
unlimited sustainable energy resources. 
Solar panels, wind turbines, and advanced 
energy storage systems ensure that 
clean energy is always available, reducing 
the carbon footprint to near zero. 
 
Agriculture 
practices 
The Finns’ special 
relationship with nature is 
re-examined and a new 
narrative in Nordic Forest 
know-how emerges. 
 
“Newtrition” (as in comparison with 
“New Green Deal”) becomes a 
term describing how the EU 
restructures the agricultural subsidy 
system, leading to the complete 
reorganisation of European and 
local food production practices. 
 
Agriculture has undergone a revolution with 
new local and sustainable industrial-scale 
production methods. Urban farms and 
greenhouses are common sights, 
providing fresh, locally grown produce year-
round. Forestry has undergone a disruptive 
change in value system thinking. Carbon 
capture, biodiversity and nature 
preservation have become primary drivers 
in forestry. These innovations have made 
food systems more resilient and less 
dependent on long supply chains, ensuring 
food security for all. 
Political 
System 
Support 
People start trusting 
democracy because the 
Economy Greens can 
communicate the present 
and its future implications 
in a way that does not 
alienate but rather 
encompasses people. 
The prime minister supports green 
values and is preferably a member 
of the Green party. 
 
The new locality is the superpower of the 
future societies of trust. Value creation is 
deeply rooted in local narratives. Local 
production has already proven to have a 
lasting impact on the economy, creating 
happiness and empowering members of 
society. 
 
 
4.3.2 Suggestions for Policy Measures 
In alignment with the preferred future scenario, participants engaged in a comprehensive discussion 
regarding national policies and local initiatives that could facilitate the transformation towards carbon 
neutrality in Finland by the year 2035. The resulting policy measures proposed include: 
• Implementation of taxonomies and pricing for natural resources 
• Re-assessment of national and global productivity metrics 
57 
 
• Enforcement of European investment criteria and standards for reporting 
• Integration of humanistic studies, such as philosophy and psychology, into 
elementary school curricula 
• Establishment of new immigration policies within Europe and Finland 
• Regulation and taxation of revenue generated from the mining industry 
• Introduction of a basic income system in Finland 
• Development of a new European energy market 
The participants underscored the critical necessity of reforming the educational system to promote an 
understanding and acceptance of diversity. A significant emphasis was placed on cultivating empathy 
and resilience among students. The consensus emerged that a multidisciplinary educational 
framework, as opposed to a narrow specialisation, equips individuals with a broader toolkit necessary 
to endure an uncertain future. This dialogue was precisely linked to the discussion surrounding the 
evaluation of national and global productivity metrics, suggesting that these metrics should 
incorporate a wider spectrum, surpassing simplistic economic valuations such as Gross Domestic 
Product (GDP), etc. 
Moreover, the group recommended the initiation of humanistic studies at the elementary level to 
mitigate bullying and promote empathy. Such an educational approach aims to enhance students’ 
comprehension of the importance of interpersonal relationships and the recognition of diverse human 
identities, species, and individual differences. 
Further discussions delved deep into the shifting economic paradigms, particularly examining the 
new classifications and reporting systems being formulated by the European Union. Participants 
speculated on the long-term consequences of these frameworks, emphasising the significance of the 
taxonomy and valuation of natural resources. One participant articulated,  
“Taxonomy is a classification system for natural resources, putting a price tag on every 
single tree.  For example, if we cut down trees to produce pulp, there’s a price tag for that. 
And if we exhaust a certain amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, there’s a price 
tag for that. So, the taxonomies are just a kind of classification for these kinds of resource 
usage and harm done.” (C1). 
Additionally, the necessity of enforcing European investment criteria was emphasised, with a focus 
on ensuring that financial investments align with sustainable practices, particularly in 
environmentally sensitive sectors such as mining. The discussion highlighted the urgent need for the 
58 
 
refinement of mining regulations and tax structures in Finland to comply with European standards, 
indicating that substantial work remains in this field.  
The conversation also included themes related to human behaviour, economic policies, and 
immigration strategies. Participants recognised the importance of contemplating the concept of basic 
income to decouple livelihood from traditional employment. While acknowledging that basic income 
may not resolve all unemployment-related issues, it was suggested that such a system could empower 
individuals to avoid unproductive or environmentally detrimental work. One participant articulated a 
persuasive argument, stating,  
“How many science-based deep tech start-ups would we get in Finland if everybody got 
a basic income of two thousand euros, where every single startup started with certain 
criteria, with creating a monthly revenue? Excellent reason to have a basic income.” (C1).  
This perspective significantly strengthens the argument for considering the implementation of basic 
income. Finally, discussions encompassed the evolving European energy market, emphasising the 
critical need to promote renewable energy initiatives to ensure long-term security and resilience. 
The subsequent chapter will conduct a comprehensive analysis of how the findings respond to the 
research questions framed within the theoretical perspectives discussed earlier, thereby deepening our 
understanding of the results’ implications within the context of existing literature. 
59 
 
5 Discussion 
In the final chapter, this thesis critically examines the findings which facilitate a transition to a carbon-
neutral economy, guided by the realization of two central research aims. The primary aim of the study 
was to conceptualize a sustainable, carbon-neutral economy for Finland by the year 2035, reflecting 
preferences articulated by economically concerned green political actors. The results delineated four 
distinct future images formulated, namely: ‘Silver Bullet’, ‘Progression’, ‘Sustainable Dream World’, 
and ‘Back to Nature’. Each of these images presents an alternative vision for a carbon-neutral 
economy, which resonates closely with Dator’s (1998, 305) framework of generic futures, 
underscoring its credibility. Specifically, the ‘Silver Bullet’ scenario aligns with the notion of 
“Transformation,” ‘Progression’ corresponds to the “Disciplined Society,” while ‘Back to Nature’ is 
indicative of “Collapse.” Concurrently, the ‘Sustainable Dream World’ occupies a nuanced position 
that intersects both the “Collapse” and “Disciplined Society” categories, embodying characteristics 
of both. Notably, these preferred visions for a carbon-neutral economy serve as a challenge to the 
prevailing growth-centric paradigm, advocating for a fundamental shift beyond traditional notions of 
economic growth, consistent with previous studies (Svenfelt et al. 2019; Vidal, 2006). 
To complement the primary objective, the secondary aim of the research was to delineate how the 
formulation of transition pathways can facilitate the transition toward this envisioned future with the 
support of policy measures. The findings indicate that the proposed measures do not adhere to a 
singular or linear trajectory; rather, they encompass a range of synergistic and interactive policy 
bundles, including basic income, resource taxation, and educational reforms. Analysing these 
findings through the lens of the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework reveals a “Mixing 
Pathways” approach, characterised by the co-evolution of “Transformation,” “Reconfiguration,” 
“Technological Substitution,” and “De-alignment/Re-alignment” in line with the transition 
archetypes identified in previous studies (Geels and Schot, 2007; Lauttamäki & Hyysalo, 2019; 
Lauttamäki, 2023; Vähäkari et al. 2020), reinforcing the validity of the framework. These mixing 
pathways suggested for reaching the vision of carbon neutrality reflect the complex realities inherent 
in the pursuit of a transition to a carbon-neutral economy. 
Subsequently, this section provides an in-depth interpretation of these results, highlighting their 
implications for achieving the study’s objectives, alongside a reflection on the key findings 
discovered. The chapter will further explore the theoretical interpretation in the study, particularly 
how the results can be framed to respond to the research questions within the established theoretical 
frameworks, as well as other pertinent concepts. Additionally, the methodological approach 
60 
 
undertaken to address the issue and to shape the envisioned future will be analysed. Finally, the 
chapter will acknowledge the limitations of the study while identifying avenues for future research, 
followed by concluding remarks. 
5.1 Reflection on Preferred Futures for a Carbon Neutral Economy  
The ideas generated through the participatory approach to envisioning carbon neutrality revealed a 
considerable range of possibilities, resulting in a diverse array of images with differing emphases. 
These comprehensive discussions appeared to foster a vivid conceptualisation of a sustainable future, 
reflecting participants’ sense of agency regarding their prospective trajectories. To address the central 
question of this study, “What could be the preferred future scenarios for economically focused green 
political actors in Finland to achieve a carbon-neutral sustainable economy by 2035?”, four distinct 
preferred future images were identified from a total of 13 alternative images developed during the 
futures workshops. The recognised preferred images, labelled as ‘Silver Bullet’, ‘Progression’, 
‘Sustainable Dream World’, and ‘Back to Nature’, each present an alternative, unique vision for a 
carbon-neutral economy in Finland, aligning with the participants’ preferences. 
The preferred image of the ‘Silver Bullet’ envisions a technology-driven economy focused on 
innovations aimed at sustainability. The second preferred image, ‘Progression’, advocates for deeper 
conservation of natural resources as the central goal of the economy, while also recognising a 
universally acknowledged global social value system. The third preferred image, known as the 
‘Sustainable Dream World’, envisions a future characterised by degrowth, prioritising the principles 
of the Doughnut economy along with ideologies of sharing and a welfare state structure. Furthermore, 
social values are directed towards global awareness and a collective sense of responsibility with a 
future-oriented perspective. The fourth preferred future image, ‘Back to Nature’, emphasises nature-
based self-sufficiency across various economic dimensions, embracing the ideologies of a sharing 
economy and promoting a harmonious relationship between humans and the natural environment. 
Upon reflecting on the feasibility of these alternative preferred images, I believe that the ‘Sustainable 
Dream World’ presents a slightly utopian vision with overly optimistic features that may impede the 
realistic attainment of such a future state within the next decade.  
A key observation from the analysis of these distinct preferred future images was the presence of 
common characteristics among the alternative futures. While the images depicted distinct centres of 
attention that mirror participants' lived experiences and perspectives, several key concepts emerged 
as commonalities. One of the salient common features among the preferred future images is that, 
serves as a challenge to the prevailing growth-centric paradigm, advocating for a fundamental shift 
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beyond traditional notions of economic growth. ‘Sustainability Dream World’ and ‘Back to Nature’ 
explicitly embody the degrowth perspective, while ‘Progression’ implicitly steers toward avoiding 
continuous growth by prioritising the goal of conservation of natural resources. The notion of ‘Silver 
Bullet’ is not explicit, however, the characteristics given in the technology-driven mission economy 
imply a shift, just beyond the growth perspective, to a sustainability-driven approach. These findings 
resonate with the feasible options that the economies can adapt within the biophysical boundaries of 
the planet, as proposed by Vidal (2006, 370). Furthermore, as Svenfelt et al. (2019, 2) argue, these 
preferred images demonstrate that the concept of intentional degrowth transcends merely doing less 
of the same; it presents an opportunity to achieve sustainable goals through re-evaluation and 
transformation of our existing approaches. 
Other key concepts commonly symbolised in the preferred images for carbon carbon-neutral 
economy included significant long-term investments in sustainability, conscious consumption 
patterns, the adoption of renewable energy sources, the imposition of taxes on polluters, local plant-
based agricultural practices, repurposing of urban structures, incorporating green spaces and 
facilitating electric or clean transportation. In addition to that, the necessity for knowledge of 
sustainability emerged as an essential component in participants’ preferred images. These common 
key concepts aligned consistently with findings from prior research (Carlsson-Kanyama, 2008; Geels, 
2018; Kainuma et al. 2024; Madurai Elavarasan et al. 2022; Melkonyan et al. 2019; Onfrei et al. 
2022), highlighting their relevance in the discourse surrounding a carbon-neutral and sustainable 
economy.  
Nevertheless, one crucial perspective is notably absent from the participants’ discussion regarding 
preferred images. As I outlined in Chapter Two, for Finland to achieve its climate neutrality target by 
2035, CO2 removals must equal emissions, which necessitates a dual approach. The vital function of 
forests as carbon sinks was overlooked in the presented images, as it is included in images only at a 
surface level.  However, the role of carbon sequestration was not explored in depth. Consequently, 
while the reduction of carbon emissions was extensively discussed, CO2 removals were largely 
neglected in the preferred images, limiting the practical implications of the findings. 
Subsequently, to find the transition pathways, the ‘Silver Bullet’ was presented as the ultimate 
preferred future vision of a carbon-neutral economy by the year 2035. The digital transformation, 
which was central to this scenario, resonates with the findings of Maksymova et al. (2024, 335), as it 
emerges as a key domain in achieving climate neutrality in the previous studies. The proposed 
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scenario outlined a feasible pathway to realise this vision, addressing prevailing challenges through 
a series of distinct milestones.  
Consequently, one pivotal insight derived from the preferred vision of ‘Silver Bullet’ is the critical 
role of education as a fundamental mechanism for facilitating this transition. Despite investment in 
education being recognised as a fundamental means of achieving sustainability goals by previous 
studies (Eurofound and EEA, 2023; Firoiu et al. 2022), an innovative, different and wider perspective 
was highlighted in this scenario. As suggested by the participants, to cultivate conscious consumption 
and renegotiate societal values rooted in knowledge and information by 2035, Finland must address 
and resolve the discrepancies between the capabilities of its educational system and the demands of 
the labour market. A consensus has emerged emphasising the importance of a multidisciplinary 
educational framework, which is posited as more effective than narrow specialisations. Such an 
approach not only equips individuals with a more versatile skill set necessary for steering through an 
uncertain future but also contributes to a reduction in unemployment rates, which may indirectly lead 
to decreased carbon emissions in numerous ways. With stable income opportunities, individuals are 
more likely to explore sustainable alternatives, thus minimising the likelihood of engaging in 
environmentally detrimental practices for economic survival and fostering the development of a 
peaceful society with reduced crime rates. 
In light of education’s vital importance, the team recommends integrating humanistic subjects like 
philosophy and psychology into elementary school curricula. This highlights the pressing need for 
educational reforms that foster an understanding and appreciation of diversity. The emphasis is placed 
on nurturing empathy and resilience among students, which could be fundamental to the transition 
toward sustainability. Before taking actions that support sustainability, individuals must grasp its core 
principles. By nurturing this understanding early on, students will develop a sense of responsibility 
towards both human and non-human entities, as well as future generations, encouraging 
environmental protective measures that align with sustainability goals. This approach represents a 
fresh perspective on education’s role in achieving carbon neutrality.  
Nevertheless, in envisioning the future of Finland, it is crucial to consider additional critical factors 
that may have direct implications for other regions globally, such as embedded emissions resulting 
from the importation of goods consumed within Finland. Given that Finland is not insulated from 
global interdependencies, adverse effects experienced in other countries could subsequently impact 
Finland’s trajectory. While the targets and policy measures presented explicitly focus on the Finnish 
economy, there seems to be a significant lack of discussion regarding embedded emissions. 
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Therefore, I believe Finland could effectively address these complexities through policy initiatives 
aimed at minimizing the negative impacts associated with imported goods, thereby contributing to 
sustainable development on a global scale. Otherwise, the potential for these policies to achieve 
overarching global carbon neutrality targets remains highly uncertain. 
Lastly, it can be argued that the developed scenario presents a singular perspective, resulting in a 
limited scope. The selection of this vision among other preferred options was based solely on the 
opinions of the participants, without any intervention from the facilitator (myself). However, due to 
the limited number of participants, particularly evident in the final workshop, only a few preferences 
from green political actors were reflected in the transition pathways of the economy, rather than a 
comprehensive combination from all participants. As such, I believe that the transition pathways for 
carbon neutrality could have been broader and more impactful, including a wider range of participants 
could have resulted in a different and more inclusive transition.  
5.2 Theoretical Interpretations 
This study grasped a few theoretical frameworks to respond to the study’s research questions while 
offering a foundational basis for the interpretation of the study findings. The first research question 
is “What are the preferred future scenarios that could be, for economically concerned green political 
actors in Finland, to achieve a carbon-neutral sustainable economy by 2035?”  Thus, drawing 
inspiration from Jim Dator’s (1998) insights, I intended to identify preferred scenarios for a carbon-
neutral economy in Finland. As detailed above, the preferred scenarios of the study emerged as ‘Silver 
Bullet’, ‘Progression’, ‘Sustainable Dream World’, and ‘Back to Nature’. 
The preferred image of ‘Silver Bullet’ claims a technology-driven mission economy that emphasises 
innovations which aim for sustainability. It relies on the emergence of a new technological leader 
similar to Nokia, with quantum technologies playing a pivotal role in catalysing economic 
transformation. Access to universal electric public transportation and an ample supply of sustainable 
energy sources further indicate the involvement of innovative technology in different fields. 
Accordingly, the ‘Silver Bullet’ scenario aligns with the notion of “Transformation,” which signifies 
the emergence of a dream society, primarily driven by the profound advancements in technology 
(Dator, 2019; Dator et al. 1998). 
The second preferred image, ‘Progression’, supports greater conservation of natural resources, which 
serve as the goal of the economy, while the global social value system is universally acknowledged. 
The ‘Progression’ directly corresponds to the “Disciplined Society,” which emerges when individuals 
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perceive continuous economic growth as unsustainable and the preservation of precious resources as 
these elements are deemed far more significant to humanity (Dator, 2019; Dator et al. 1998). 
Additionally, as Dator (1998) suggests, society should be guided by a core set of values that encourage 
a deeper understanding of life beyond the mere acquisition of infinite wealth and consumerism, which 
closely resonate with this image.  
The third preferred image designated ‘Sustainable Dream World’, presents a goal of degrowth 
prioritising the principles of the Doughnut economy alongside ideologies of sharing and a welfare 
state structure. In addition, social values are oriented towards global awareness and collective 
responsibility with a forward-looking mindset. The degrowth perspective implies a notion of 
“Collapse”. However, as Dator (1998) suggested, society is guided by a core set of values, which is 
evidenced by the social values oriented towards collective responsibility, implying a notion of a 
“Disciplined Society”. Thus, the ‘Sustainable Dream World’ occupies a multifaceted position that 
intersects both the “Collapse” and “Disciplined Society” categories, embodying characteristics of 
both (Dator, 2019; Dator et al. 1998). 
The fourth preferred future image, ‘Back to Nature’, emphasises nature-based self-sufficiency across 
various economic dimensions, rooted in the principles of a sharing economy. It reflects a harmonious 
relationship between humans and the natural environment. This concept has gained traction in 
traditional farming practices, as part of the population that left urban areas to adopt a self-sufficient 
lifestyle exemplifies this synergy with nature. Consequently, ‘Back to Nature’ reflects the potential 
for societal “Collapse”. However, it is important to note that this reduction in development stems not 
from economic disasters but from a moral or ideological shift towards pursuing a simpler lifestyle, 
which could ultimately lead to the end of the economic “rat race” (Dator, 2019; Dator et al. 1998). 
Given that the preferred scenarios for a carbon-neutral sustainable economy among economically 
minded green political stakeholders are “Transformation,” “Collapse,” and “Disciplined Society,” it 
is essential to analyse how alternative pathways can align with the preferred future scenarios to 
support the transition towards a carbon-neutral sustainable Economy which is the second research 
question. The findings suggest that the proposed policy measures do not follow a singular or linear 
path; instead, they consist of a variety of synergistic and interactive policy bundles, encompassing 
elements such as basic income, resource taxation, and educational reforms. When examined through 
the lens of the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework, a “Mixing Pathways” approach emerges 
(Geels and Schot, 2007; Lauttamäki & Hyysalo, 2019; Lauttamäki, 2023; Vähäkari et al. 2020). 
65 
 
The transition could commence with a societal reorientation through policies such as the reassessment 
of national and global productivity metrics, the integration of humanistic studies, like philosophy and 
psychology, into elementary school curricula, and the introduction of a basic income system in 
Finland. These approaches do not dismantle the existing regime but instead gradually shift its 
direction toward what is termed a “Transition” pathway. Following this, incumbent actors begin to 
adapt and incorporate niche innovations to address emerging challenges, exemplified by the 
establishment of a new European energy market, which underscores a “Reconfiguration” pathway. 
The implementation of taxonomies and pricing for natural resources, along with the enforcement of 
European investment criteria and reporting standards, represents a set of mature niche innovations 
that are well-suited to address high landscape pressures. These measures could redirect capital flows 
toward clean technologies, effectively replacing the current regime and embodying a "Technological 
Substitution" pathway. Furthermore, this scenario underscores how geopolitical tensions and climate 
change can create external shocks at the landscape level, leading to the “De-alignment” of the existing 
regime. As a result, multiple niches may struggle to fill this void, ultimately leading to a “Re-
alignment” in which one niche emerges as dominant. 
Accordingly, the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework reveals that these measures indicate a 
“Mixing Pathways” approach characterised by the co-evolution of “Transformation,” 
“Reconfiguration,” “Technological Substitution,” and “De-alignment/Re-alignment” in line with the 
transition archetypes identified in previous studies (Geels and Schot, 2007; Lauttamäki & Hyysalo, 
2019; Lauttamäki, 2023; Vähäkari et al. 2020), reinforcing the validity of the framework in offering 
alternative transition pathways for the desired vision. Significantly, these mixing pathways suggested 
for reaching the vision of carbon neutrality reflect the complex realities inherent in the pursuit of a 
transition to a carbon-neutral economy. 
5.3 Reflecting on the Methodology  
This study set out to create a preferred vision for achieving a carbon-neutral economy by 2035, 
employing Backcasting and Futures workshops as its methodological framework. Recognising the 
intricate and multifaceted nature of climate-related issues, the study emphasises the need for 
innovative problem-solving strategies that draw on diverse perspectives to discover and implement 
effective solutions. Thus, Backcasting scenarios proved particularly effective in this context, as they 
tackle complex, long-term challenges requiring substantial changes, as noted in earlier research 
(Dreborg, 1996; Heinonen & Lautamäki, 2012; Höjer et al. 2011). Additionally, Backcasting 
scenarios approached through a participatory lens, utilising Futures Workshops, yielded valuable 
66 
 
insights and supported transformative processes (Armanto, 2024, 1), addressing community concerns 
and fostering responsible actions (Vidal, 2006, 3). Therefore, this methodological approach is highly 
relevant for driving economic transformation towards carbon neutrality while fulfilling the 
responsibility of futurists. 
The Backcasting scenarios employed in this study began with a vision for Finland in 2035, enabling 
a systematic exploration of potential alternative futures. By envisioning desirable outcomes, the study 
worked backwards to identify the necessary steps and strategies outlined at its outset. Establishing a 
preferred vision for 2035 from the very beginning allowed for the convenient identification of 
development pathways. Moreover, the subsequent task of determining the necessary policy measures 
essential for the successful realisation of the shared vision was made simpler through this Backcasting 
approach, as the well-defined vision guided the direction effectively, echoing the findings of previous 
studies (Börjeson et al. 2006; Drebog, 1996; Höjer et al. 2011; Järvi et al. 2015; Robinson, 1990; 
Tuominen et al. 2014). 
In addition, Futures Workshops served as a highly participatory approach for data collection, 
organisation, and presentation in a study as proposed by Lauttamäki (2016, 156). Consequently, the 
outcomes of these workshops were distinct and diverse, benefiting from the involvement of a group 
of participants (Nygrén, 2019, 31; Peterson et al. 2003, 362). This richness stems from the unique 
experiences, ideas, and insights of the participants, which could not be fully anticipated in advance. 
The collaborative discussions fostered during these workshops uncovered alternative pathways to 
facilitate this transition. Participants not only gained valuable insights from the workshops but also 
benefited from the learning opportunities inherent in the tasks and dialogues, which significantly 
heightened their active engagement in the research process. This enhancement of participant learning 
aligns with the study’s complementary objective of participatory learning and is consistent with prior 
studies (Armanto, 2024; Patel et al. 2007), which underscores the significance of participatory 
methods from diverse perspectives. 
One of the key implications is the valuable first-hand experience I gained as a facilitator, which 
provided a comprehensive understanding of the inherent unpredictability of the process. This includes 
factors such as timing, participant behaviour, the limitations of ongoing discussions, group outcomes, 
and emotional reactions to the subject matter. As outlined in Chapter 3.4.2, my role as a democratic 
facilitator enabled me to promote participant openness while avoiding constraints that could unduly 
influence the outcomes. Consequently, I believe that my efforts were successful in refraining from 
introducing personal biases that might have affected the study’s results. 
67 
 
It is important to recognise that the results were inevitably influenced by the overall duration of the 
workshop series. Although the agenda was organised into distinct phases, the exact timing could not 
be fully anticipated, as it relied heavily on participant engagement and the level of in-depth, open 
discussions. While I maintained some oversight over the timing of various phases, I opted not to 
impose strict limits on the open group discussions, as doing so could stifle creativity and the 
uniqueness of the outcomes. Moreover, since all workshops were scheduled after working hours, 
participants encountered challenges in managing demanding tasks towards the end of the sessions. 
As a result, the future signals exercise that was intended to conclude the first workshop was ultimately 
cancelled. Had this exercise been executed, it may have facilitated a more coherent understanding of 
the findings at this stage. 
It is important to note, as articulated by Vidal (2006, 10), that the creativity and effectiveness of group 
work are critical factors influencing the success of futures workshops. To enhance both creativity and 
effectiveness, the careful selection of participants and their organisation into subgroups is essential, 
and according to Dator (2019, 4), this selection should be comprehensive. In this study, green political 
actors voluntarily participated in a series of workshops driven by their shared interest in the subject, 
which resulted in unique and compelling outcomes. However, increasing the number of participants, 
especially from diverse fields, would have been beneficial in generating a broader range of inputs and 
perspectives, ideally targeting a participant range of 8 to 12 individuals (Vidal, 2006, 10). Moreover, 
the formation of subgroups was carried out without a structured approach due to the limited 
availability of participants. A more intentional segregation based on variables such as gender, age, 
and experience would have enhanced the collaborative process. 
Furthermore, enhancing participant creativity presented a significant challenge, placing the 
responsibility on me as a facilitator to utilise creativity-boosting tools and methodologies as suggested 
by Vidal (2006, 12). To tackle this challenge, the Mental Time Travel approach used in this study 
effectively fostered creativity by engaging participants in a "fantasy trip" (Cuhls, 2017, 119) that 
tapped into their spontaneous imagination, shaped by their individual past experiences and 
knowledge. This innovative method allowed participants to visualise their desired futures, cultivating 
emotional connections to anticipated experiences. I believe that this imaginative journey heightened 
their awareness of personal desires and preferences, aligning with findings from previous studies 
(Seneviratne, 2024, 77), which advocated for the ability to foresee a preferred vision. Additionally, it 
not only inspired their personal conscious decision-making but also assisted in charting future 
pathways for this sustainability transition. This process of self-awareness is recognised as 
fundamental to sustainable development (Göpel, 2016, 161), potentially encouraging positive 
68 
 
lifestyle changes and fostering collective movements towards a more sustainable future, which serves 
as an essential starting point in the transition towards a carbon-neutral economy as proposed in this 
study. 
Apart from that, as a result of this participatory framework, each phase of the research was carried 
out with active input from the client, allowing for real-time feedback and adjustments. This dynamic 
engagement not only enriched the research process but also established a sense of ownership and 
commitment to the study. Ultimately, this collaborative structure enhanced the quality of the findings, 
leading to more meaningful outcomes from the participatory Backcasting Futures Workshops and 
ensuring that the results were relevant and actionable for all stakeholders involved.  
5.4 Limitations and Suggestions 
In this chapter, I reflect on the unique learning opportunities gained throughout the study process, 
while also highlighting the importance of acknowledging the study’s limitations. Effectively 
recognising these limitations is a vital aspect of the learning experience, as it lays the groundwork for 
future research improvements.  
The success of the Futures workshop is closely linked to the creativity and effectiveness found in 
collaborative group work. Given the complex and multifaceted nature of climate-related challenges, 
which require a diverse range of perspectives, it is essential to engage a broader and more varied array 
of stakeholders. This includes ordinary citizens, who can bring their unique backgrounds and value 
orientations to the Futures workshops. Such inclusion not only enhances the comprehensiveness of 
the study’s outcomes but also cultivates a greater sense of agency among participants, empowering 
them to address issues that impact their lives. Furthermore, this approach provides the potential to 
generalise findings with a wider array of voices reflecting the preferred futures of society at large. 
Ultimately, this facilitation could serve as a crucial starting point for meaningful societal transition. 
Furthermore, to stimulate creativity and facilitate the envisioning process for participants, it is 
advisable to incorporate innovative approaches alongside techniques such as mental time travel. 
Employing a singular method might yield varied responses among participants, influenced by their 
distinct perspectives and experiences, which could be either positive or negative. In the present study, 
although the mental time travel exercise was implemented in the initial workshop, participant 
reflections following the exercise were not documented for further analysis. If participants had been 
granted an opportunity to present their reflections in writing as input, a more comprehensive 
understanding could have been achieved regarding the impact of the exercise, particularly in 
69 
 
comparing reflections among participants. Such insights could have demonstrated the degree and 
nature of influence the mental time travel exercise exerted on diverse participants, thereby enhancing 
the evaluation of its effectiveness. Nevertheless, the participants’ contributions during the short 
reflective discussion highlighted an overall positive perception of the mental time travel technique. 
 Moreover, it would have been advantageous to incorporate concise, tailored interviews at least with 
a few participants following the series of futures workshops to gain deeper insights into their 
reflections. Such interviews could have unveiled personal perceptions regarding the methodologies 
employed in this study, particularly the mental time travel experience, and its varying effectiveness 
across different individuals. Additionally, this approach would have facilitated a more thorough 
reflection on the preferred visions developed by participants themselves, along with the associated 
transition pathways, given the limited time allocated for individual contemplation after the workshop 
series. These reflections could have significantly contributed to a boosted sense of agency regarding 
their envisioned futures. 
The scenarios presented explain the necessary developments that must occur by 2035 to advance 
toward a carbon-neutral economy, as acknowledged in the reflections and can direct subsequent 
strategic planning tasks. However, it remains unestablished whether this vision or the development 
targets specified are feasible, as the scenarios do not indicate concrete measures or instruments 
required for actual implementation. Moreover, the challenges encountered may differ based on 
external or internal pressures arising from legislative and other systems. Consequently, a continuous 
assessment of the feasibility of the scenarios and the proposed policy measures would enhance the 
study’s overall significance. 
Moreover, ensuring the consistency of policy measures is crucial for achieving the preferred vision, 
as even a single inconsistent or conflicting policy could undermine the effectiveness of other vital 
measures. For successful transition processes, a robust and coordinated policy package is imperative. 
A recommendation for future research would be to evaluate the coherence of policy measures in 
alignment with the preferred vision and the developmental pathways outlined in the scenario 
narratives. 
5.5 A Concluding Thought 
In light of the urgent degradation of Earth’s critical systems, which highlighted by Dyke and Monbiot 
(2024, 3), a systemic transition to carbon neutrality is imperative. The lessons derived from past mass 
extinctions not only serve as a cautionary reminder but also propel us towards transformative action. 
70 
 
To avert catastrophic consequences, it is crucial to reshape our economic framework to prioritise 
sustainability over conventional growth, embracing a broader array of synergistic and interactive 
pathways, since a carbon-neutral economy is essential to safeguard planetary health while ensuring 
the survival of humanity. 
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Note on the use of AI: The Grammarly tool has been utilized for proofreading and refining the 
language throughout the study to enhance the readability of the thesis report. In addition to that to 
create an image of the preferred scenario, ChatGPT, a generative AI tool has been utilized.  
 
 
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Appendices 
Appendix 1 Agendas of the Series of Futures Workshops 
Futures Workshop 1- Drivers and elements of a carbon-neutral economy 
• Introductory Round (15 Min) 
• Brainstorming Speech from Saara Suurla & Visio Introduction (15 Min) 
• The Applauding Phase (30 Min) 
• The Problem Phase (30 Min) 
• Group presentations (30 Min) 
• Coffee break (30 Min) 
• Mental Time Travelling Exercise (10 mins) 
• Future Signal Exercise (45 Min) 
• Group presentations (30 Min) 
• Final discussions and next steps (15 Min) 
 
Futures Workshop 2 - Images of alternative carbon-neutral futures 
• Introductory session (15 Min) 
• Introduction to Futures Table (15 Min) 
• Completing Thematic (30 Min) 
• Group Presentations (15 Min) 
• Filling the Futures Table (45 Min) 
• Coffee Break (30 Min) 
• Construction of Future Images (60 Min) 
• Group Presentations (30 Min) 
• Final discussions and next steps (15 Min) 
 
Futures Workshop 3 - Co-creating the vision. 
• Summary of work done (15 Min)  
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• Drafting Scenario pathways (60 Min) 
• Group Presentations (30 Min) 
• Coffee Break (30 Min) 
• Suggest Policy Measures (60 Min) 
• Group Presentations (30 Min) 
• Final Discussion and Feedback (15 Min) 
 
Appendix 2 Consent Form 
CONSENT FORM 
Futures workshops: Preferred Futures of Carbon-Neutral Economy 
I have been invited to participate in the study described above. 
I have read and understood the research bulletin provided to me and received comprehensive 
information about the research, including how data will be collected, processed, and disclosed. 
I am aware of my rights as a participant in the workshop series, the purpose and implementation of 
the research, and its potential benefits and risks. I have had sufficient time to consider my 
participation. 
I understand that all inputs I provide will be documented on a virtual platform for future analysis by 
the researcher. Our brief group presentations following each discussion round will be recorded for 
further reference. To ensure anonymity, these recordings will be transcribed after the workshop, and 
the audio files will be promptly deleted, leaving only the transcribed documents for further analysis. 
These records will only be accessible to the student conducting the master’s thesis and her 
supervisors. 
I acknowledge that participation in this study is voluntary. I have the right to decline participation or 
withdraw my consent during the study without justifying, simply by notifying the research staff. My 
data will be treated confidentially and may be used in scientific publications as described in the 
research bulletin and above. Hence, my data will not be disclosed outside the research group. 
Refusal to participate or withdraw consent will not have any negative consequences for me. 
  
I PARTICIPATE IN THE STUDY.                       
Name: __________________________________________________________________ 
Place and time: _________________________________________ ______ / ______ / 2024. 
Signature and name clarification: _______________________________________________ 
 
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Appendix 3 Script for Mental Time-Travel  
Introduction 
Welcome everyone! Today, we will take a mental journey to the year 2035 to explore a carbon-neutral, 
sustainable economy. Let’s dive into the future we want to create. 
 
Part 1: Personal Life in 2035 
Relaxation and Focus 
Sit comfortably, close your eyes, and take a deep breath. Focus on your nose strip and think about how you 
feel as you inhale and exhale. Clear your mind and prepare for the journey. 
 
Setting the Scene 
Now, imagine you are entering a room with a time machine. You can see the control panels, and you can 
imagine you are in a time machine. The year on the control panel reads "2035." Activate the machine and 
feel yourself gently transported through time as you settle into your future body. 
 
Personal Environment 
Step out into your life in 2035. Observe your surroundings. If you are not already inside your home, move to 
your home and walk around. Notice the details of your home and the way it’s powered. Take in the energy 
sources and how they are integrated into your living space. 
 
Daily Life 
Envision your typical day. Think about your commute and your daily activities. Observe how your routines 
have changed to align with a carbon-neutral economy. 
 
Consumption and Lifestyle 
Reflect on your consumption habits. Notice how you shop for goods and services. What kind of food and 
clothes are you consuming? 
 
Part 2: Society in 2035 
Broadening the Scope 
Now we will go outside to investigate your immediate neighbourhood. Step outside your front door and 
stand there for a while, eyes closed. Now, expand your vision to society in 2035. Look at nature and listen to 
the sounds of nature. What is your relationship with nature? Notice how cities and communities have 
transformed to embrace sustainability. 
 
Infrastructure and Technology 
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Observe public infrastructure and technology. Notice the advancements that support a carbon-neutral society. 
 
Economy and Work 
Reflect on the Preferred economic approach. Think about how industries have adapted and the new 
opportunities that have emerged. 
 
Policies and Governance 
Consider the role of governments and policies. Observe the regulations and incentives promoting 
sustainability. Think about international cooperation and efforts to combat climate change. 
 
Culture and Society 
Reflect on cultural shifts. Notice how values and norms have changed to support a sustainable lifestyle. Are 
there signs of new forms of sharing in the future? Which kinds of things or services are shared in your 
community? And how does sharing work? Do you have collections of things- clothes? Or maybe shared 
production of food. Shared energy production, facilities or maybe transportation? Do you have a sharing 
economy?  
 
Return to the Present 
Gradually bring your mind back to the present. Imagine stepping back into the time machine and returning to 
2024. Open your eyes when you are ready. 
 
Reflection 
Take a moment to think about what you saw and felt. Reflect on the personal and societal changes you 
imagined. Consider what steps you can take today to move towards that future. 
 
Appendix 4 Coding of Quotes by the Participants to Safeguard Anonymity 
All participants within the series of Futures Workshops were recognized as groups, and codes were given to 
groups as follows to safeguard the anonymity of the participants. 
• Futures Workshop 1: Two Groups as A1 and A2 
• Futures Workshop 2: Three Groups as B1, B2 and B3 
• Futures Workshop 3: One Group as C1