Equity Market Reaction to Green Bond Issuance
Announcement
Global Empirical Evidence of Corporate Green Bonds in 2013–2021
Master's thesis
in Accounting and Finance
Author:
Arttu Vuokko
Supervisor:
Professor Mika Vaihekoski
15.2.2023
Turku
The originality of this thesis has been checked in accordance with the University of Turku
quality assurance system using the Turnitin Originality Check service.
Master's thesis
Subject: Accounting and Finance
Author: Arttu Vuokko
Title: Equity Market Reaction to Green Bond Issuance Announcement: Global Empirical
Evidence of Corporate Green Bonds in 2013–2021
Supervisor: professor Mika Vaihekoski
Number of pages: 71 pages + appendices 2 pages
Date: 15.2.2023
Sustainable development (SD) is becoming increasingly prominent in business and finance, and
especially environmental challenges are receiving growing concern. What often falls outside the
discussion is the substantial amount of capital required to achieve the desired sustainability goals.
Assistance to the situation is providing the capital market, which enables the allocation of capital
to the desired targets to mitigate and combat sustainability challenges. In particular, the trend is
reflected in the debt capital markets, where multiple sustainable debt instruments have emerged.
Out of all of the current ones available in the markets, green bonds have become the most popular
in recent years. They are bonds whose proceeds must be used to finance or re-finance so-called
green projects that aim to promote environmental issues.
This thesis examines the equity market reaction to green bond issuance announcements of listed
corporates. The second objective is to evaluate possible linkages between abnormal returns and
green bond and issuer characteristics. The scope of the study is global, and the final sample
consists of 564 green bond observations from 31 countries and ten economic sectors between
2013–2021. The research methods are an event study and regression analysis. The results are
compared between different subsamples and regions to make the analysis comprehensive. In
addition to the empirical study, the thesis provides an extensive and timely literature review on
the topic.
The results of the event study are not entirely unambiguous but tend to lean more toward a positive
equity market reaction. In particular, the positive reaction is visible in the pre-event window
suggesting possible information leakage prior to the event, although the results are statistically
insignificant. The result is more positive and significant for non-financial corporates, first-time
issuances, and issuers from emerging & developing markets. Regionally, the strongest and most
positive reaction is for non-financial corporates in Asia-Pacific, with the cumulative average
abnormal return (CAAR) of 1.025% over a 10-day event window. The regression analysis
suggests no statistically significant links between the abnormal returns and the green bond and
issuer characteristics. The same regression results apply to financial and non-financial corporates
and different regions.
Key words: green bond, sustainable finance, sustainable debt instrument, event study,
regression analysis
Pro gradu -tutkielma
Oppiaine: Laskentatoimi ja rahoitus
Tekijä: Arttu Vuokko
Otsikko: Osakemarkkinoiden reaktio vihreiden joukkovelkakirjojen liikkeellelaskusta
ilmoittamiseen: Globaali empiirinen tutkimus yritysten vihreistä joukkovelkakirjoista vuosina
2013–2021
Ohjaaja: professori Mika Vaihekoski
Sivumäärä: 71 sivua + liitteet 2 sivua
Päivämäärä: 15.2.2023
Kestävästä kehityksestä on yhä näkyvämpää liiketoiminnassa ja rahoituksessa. Erityisesti
ympäristöhaasteet ovat kasvava huolenaihe. Keskustelun ulkopuolelle jää usein merkittävä
pääoman määrä, joka tarvitaan haluttujen kestävyystavoitteiden saavuttamiseksi. Apua
tilanteeseen tuovat pääomamarkkinat, jotka mahdollistaa pääoman kohdentamisen haluttuihin
kohteisiin kestävyyshaasteiden lieventämiseksi ja torjumiseksi. Suuntaus näkyy erityisesti
velkapääomamarkkinoilla vastuullisten velkainstrumenttien kehittymisenä. Kaikista
markkinoiden nykyisistä vastuullisista velkainstrumenteista, vihreät joukkovelkakirjat ovat
nousseet erityiseen suosioon viime vuosina. Ne ovat joukkovelkakirjoja, joiden tuotot on
käytettävä ympäristökysymyksiä edistävien, niin sanottujen vihreiden hankkeiden,
rahoittamiseen tai uudelleenrahoitukseen.
Tässä opinnäytetyössä tarkastellaan osakemarkkinoiden reaktiota pörssiyhtiöiden vihreiden
joukkolainojen liikkeeseenlaskuilmoituksiin. Toisena tavoitteena on arvioida mahdollisia
yhteyksiä epänormaalien tuottojen sekä vihreiden joukkovelkakirjojen ja liikkeeseenlaskijan
ominaisuuksien välillä. Tutkimus on maailmanlaajuinen, ja lopullinen otos koostuu 564 vihreästä
joukkovelkakirjalainahavainnosta, 31 maasta ja kymmeneltä talouden sektorilta, vuosina 2013–
2021. Tutkimusmenetelmät ovat tapahtumatutkimus ja regressioanalyysi. Jotta analyysi olisi
mahdollisimman kattavat, tuloksia verrataan eri osanäytteiden ja maantieteellisten alueiden
välillä. Empiirisen tutkimuksen lisäksi tutkielma tarjoaa aiheesta laajan ja ajankohtaisen
kirjallisuuskatsauksen.
Tapahtumatutkimuksen tulokset eivät ole täysin yksiselitteisiä, mutta ne kallistuvat enemmän
kohti positiivista osakemarkkinoiden reaktiota. Positiivinen reaktio näkyy erityisesti tapahtumaa
edeltävässä ikkunassa, mikä viittaa mahdolliseen tietovuotoon ennen tapahtumaa, vaikkakin
tulokset ovat tilastollisesti merkityksettömiä. Tulos on myönteisempi ja merkittävämpi
rahoitusalan ulkopuolisille yrityksille, ensikertaisille liikkeellelaskuille sekä kehittyvien
markkinoiden liikkeeseenlaskijoille. Aluekohtaisesti reaktio on voimakkain ja myönteisin Aasian
ja Tyynenmeren alueen rahoitusalan ulkopuolisille yrityksille, joiden keskimääräinen
kumulatiivinen epänormaali tuotto on 1,025 prosenttia kymmenen päivän tapahtumaikkunan
aikana. Regressioanalyysi ei viittaa tilastollisesti merkittäviin yhteyksiin epänormaalien tuottojen
sekä vihreän joukkovelkakirjan ja liikkeeseenlaskijan ominaisuuksien välillä. Samat regressio
tulokset koskevat rahoitusalan ja rahoitusalan ulkopuolisia yrityksiä sekä eri maantieteellisiä
alueita.
Avainsanat: vihreä joukkovelkakirja, vastuullinen rahoitus, vastuullinen velkainstrumentti,
tapahtumatutkimus, regressionanalyysi
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Introduction 8
1.1 Motivation 8
1.2 Research questions and goals 10
1.3 Structure 11
2 Background 13
2.1 Sustainable finance 13
2.2 Debt capital markets and sustainable finance 15
3 Green bonds 18
3.1 Definition 18
3.2 Global green bond market development 21
3.3 Current principles, standards and regulations 23
3.4 Challenges 26
3.5 Previous studies 28
4 Data and research methods 32
4.1 Data 32
4.2 Research methods 37
4.2.1 Event study 37
4.2.2 Regression analysis 42
5 Results and discussion 47
5.1 Event study 47
5.2 Regression analysis 55
6 Conclusions 61
References 63
Appendices 72
Appendix 1 Used market indices 72
Appendix 2 Results from event study using USD as common currency 73
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 Annual green bond issuances in November 2022 21
Figure 2 Geographical heat map of green bond issuances in November 2022 23
Figure 3 Event study structure 38
Figure 4 Abnormal returns using local currency vs. USD 48
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 Sustainable debt instruments 17
Table 2 Current green bond types 20
Table 3 Screening criteria for green bonds 33
Table 4 Green bond sample by country and economic sector 34
Table 5 Summary statistics of green bonds and issuers 36
Table 6 Explanatory variables 43
Table 7 Descriptive statistics for regression variables 44
Table 8 Correlation matrices 46
Table 9 Daily abnormal returns 49
Table 10 Cumulative average abnormal returns 50
Table 11 Comparison between subsamples 51
Table 12 Comparison between regions 54
Table 13 Regression results for non-financial group 56
Table 14 Regression results for financial group 58
Table 15 Regional regression results 60
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
Abbreviation Definition
AAR Average Abnormal Return
ABS Asset-Backed Security
AR Abnormal Return
CAAR Cumulative Average Abnormal Return
CAR Cumulative Abnormal Return
CBI Climate Bonds Initiative
DCM Debt Capital Market
EIB European Investment Bank
EMH Efficient Market Hypothesis
ESG Environmental, Social, and Governance
GDB Green Bond Principle
ICMA International Capital Market Association
IMF The International Monetary Fund
IPCC International Panel on Climate Change
IPSF International Platform on Sustainable Finance
MPT Modern Portfolio Theory
MSCI Morgan Stanley Capital International
OLS Ordinary Least Squares
RI Total Return Index
ROA Return on Assets
SD Sustainable Development
SDG Sustainable Development Goal
SIFMA Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association
SPV Special Purpose Vehicle
SRI Socially Responsible Investing
TEG Technical Expert Group
TRBC The Refinitiv Business Classification
UN United Nations
VIF Variance Inflation Factor
8
1 Introduction
1.1 Motivation
Sustainable development (SD) has gained a significant role in modern society. According
to Brundtland Commission’s (1987) report, it is “development that meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”.
In general, although not entirely unanimously, the term binds together environmental,
social, and economic challenges that the world is facing (Schoenmaker & Schramade
2018, 3). To address these challenges, in 2015, 193 countries in the United Nations (UN)
agreed on 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The main objective was to
encourage governments, corporations, and civil society to tackle the defined broad issues
of sustainability with a deadline of 2030. (UN General Assembly 2015; Thompson 2021,
20–23.)
Out of all the areas of SD, the environmental challenges have received considerable
attention recently. The concern has been fueled by the UN Climate Report, published by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 28 February 2022, stating the
devastating consequences of rapid global warming. The trend can also be detected from
the increasing amount of pledges to reach net zero carbon emission targets. According to
Taking Stock’s (2021) global assessment of net zero targets, 61% of nations, 9% of states
and regions, 13% of cities, and 21% of corporates have made some form of commitment
to net zero. The annual sales of the corporates with net zero commitments included in the
assessment account for nearly USD 14 trillion, equivalent to around one-fifth of the sales
of the world’s 2,000 largest listed corporates. Furthermore, in August 2022, MSCI (2022)
reports the cumulative number of listed corporates, with some type of net zero targets,
being 3,152. While there may be many disagreements about the motives of pursuing net
zero, and many tend to fall short from the claims1, the increase in its popularity indicates
a growing interest in mitigating climate change.
What often falls outside the discussion and news coverage is how much capital is required
to achieve the SDGs. According to The New Climate Economy’s (2014) estimation,
around USD 90 trillion of infrastructure investments are needed between 2015 and 2030
to achieve global sustainable development and climate objectives. (Green Finance
1 See e.g. New Climate Institute (2022) and UN High-Level Expert Group (2022).
9
Initiative 2016; Thompson 2021, 13.) In addition, McKinsey & Company’s (2022)
analysis suggests that a total of around USD 275 trillion in cumulative spending on
physical assets is required between 2021 and 2050 to reach the net zero scenario by 2050.
It is equivalent to over USD 9 trillion each year. Also, according to Kharas and
McArthur’s (2019) estimate, in 2015, the global public sector SDG spending was already
around USD 20 trillion per year and is expected to reach USD 33 trillion or more by 2030.
Although these are just a few examples, and the exact amount is challenging to estimate,
the overall consensus is clear: the amount of required capital is substantial.
Assistance to the situation is providing the capital market, which serves as a powerful
mechanism to enable the financing of SDGs by providing ease to capital mobilization and
deployment. Capital markets can be divided into equity and debt markets, from which
debt markets are significantly larger. (World Economic Forum 2019.) What gives debt
capital markets a particularly vital role in financing ongoing and new sustainable projects
is their financing structure. A typical debt-to-equity ratio of an infrastructure project is
70/30. The proportion of debt is usually even higher for sustainable projects, such as
renewable energy, energy efficiency and low-emission vehicle projects, with a ratio of
75/25. (McKinsey & Company 2013; OECD 2015.) In the past, these projects have been
funded by general bank loans and balance sheet financing. However, as the transition to
a more sustainable world requires a growing amount of capital, the capabilities of post-
financial crisis companies are exceeding, and the need for more debt capital is increasing.
(Thompson 2021, 239–240.)
The vital role of debt capital markets as an SDG financing enabler is shown well in the
development of different sustainable debt instruments. They are used to raise debt capital
for SD-aligned operations. Especially one of these instruments has gained broad attention
in the past few years. It is called a green bond, and it was first introduced to the public in
2007 when European Investment Bank (EIB) issued the world’s first green bond (EIB
2022a). Green bonds are virtually equal to conventional bonds, but the proceeds must be
used to finance so-called ‘green projects’. These projects aim to contribute to the
environmental challenges of SD. For the project to be classified as green, it must meet
certain criteria. (CBI 2019; ICMA 2022.) Although the use of proceeds is immensely
limited for the issuer, the green bond market has only continued to grow exponentially.
According to Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI) (2022a), in 2021, the global green bond
market reached an annual value of over USD half trillion, maintaining its trend of 10
10
consecutive years of market expansion. Moreover, the market is expected to reach USD
1 trillion by 2022 and USD 5 trillion by 2025. However, to get to this target, collective
actions are needed. For example, policies need to be accelerated, the green project
pipeline needs to be expanded, and the capital flow from advanced economies to
emerging markets needs to be augmented. (CBI 2022d.)
Green bonds are not only intriguing from the perspective of the corporates and
governments issuing them. The growing interest in sustainability is also evident among
investors, as they are increasingly more interested in the overall impact of their
investments. The mere financial return is no longer enough, as for many, the influence of
investment in the environment and climate has reached equal importance. Thus, for
investors interested in sustainability, green bonds offer an opportunity to diversify and
manage risk while fulfilling the desired sustainable outcomes. (Thompson 2021, 240.)
While green bonds may raise concerns about greenwashing2, for issuers, they also serve
as a tool to signal their commitment to sustainability to the investors (Flammer 2021).
Consequently, there is some evidence that issuing green bonds would lead to a positive
stock price reaction for listed corporates (see e.g. Baulkaran 2019; Wang et al. 2020; Tang
& Zhang 2020; Flammer 2021).
The booming market and the growing popularity of green bonds make them a compelling
and valuable research topic in the field of finance. Because the green bond is a relatively
new financial instrument, market developments and changes are happening rapidly. A
continuous examination is needed to keep up with the changes and their effects. By
making good use of the constantly growing amount of new data, it is possible to increase
the amount of knowledge on which the decisions can be based. This thesis aims to
contribute to the finance literature on green bonds, particularly from the point of view of
listed corporates and investors.
1.2 Research questions and goals
This thesis examines the impact of green bonds on the stock returns of the listed corporate
issuers. In other words, the aim is to study how the equity market reacts to the green bond
issuance announcements. In addition, different characteristics of the green bonds and the
listed issuers, which could explain the possible abnormal returns, are examined. The focus
2 See Financial Times (2022).
11
is on the global green bond market. Although there are some previous studies on the topic,
the conclusions are not consistent. By using the new available data, it is possible to find
new meaningful observations. The goal is also to make the analysis as comprehensive as
possible. Thus, two main research questions for this thesis are:
1. Do green bonds have an impact on the stock returns of the listed corporate issuers?
2. Are there links between green bond and issuer characteristics and abnormal
returns?
A two-step empirical analysis is conducted to answer these questions. The first part
utilises an event study method. The event study examines whether green bonds create
abnormal returns to the issuers and aims to answer the first research question. The date
of the first issuance announcement serves as the investigated event. The announcement
day, rather than the actual issuance day, represents better the time when the information
entered the market. The results are analysed comprehensively between various
subsamples, such as regions and sectors. In particular, the focus is on Europe, Asia-Pacific
and North America, and the financial and non-financial sectors. Also, a comparison
between the effects of the first-time and subsequent issuance is conducted. The
comparisons allow a deeper analysis of the results by highlighting key differences
between the scrutinised subsamples.
The second part of the empirical analysis is a cross-sectional regression analysis. It is
performed to answer the second research question as it allows for highlighting specific
characteristics that are linked to the possible abnormal returns. To be precise, the
characteristics to be considered are those of green bonds and the listed corporate issuers.
In this part also, the results are analysed between regions and sectors. On top of answering
the main research questions, the goal is to provide an extensive and up-to-date literature
review of green bonds and related concepts.
1.3 Structure
To provide a comprehensive understanding of green bonds and their origins, Chapter 2
contains background to the topic. First, the concept of sustainable finance is outlined.
Second, the relationship between the debt capital market and the sustainable finance
movement is discussed. Other sustainable debt instruments, excluding green bonds, are
also presented in detail. Chapter 3 focuses on green bonds. The green bonds are defined
12
in depth, and the current green bond types are presented, along with the global green bond
market development and current green bond standards. Also, the challenges related to
green bonds and their future market development are discussed. Before moving to the
chapters covering the empirical study, similar previous studies are summarized. Chapter
4 introduces the data and research methods used in the empirical analysis, and the final
results are displayed and discussed in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 summarizes the thesis and
provides ideas for future research.
13
2 Background
2.1 Sustainable finance
The acknowledgement that, through investing, it is possible to impact the world and
surroundings beyond the financial benefits is not a newly discovered idea. It has been
around for centuries. Even though the modern form of finance can be considered to have
started in the 1950s3, the concept of aligning monetary investments with personal values
dates, at least, to the Quakers who aimed to align their purchases and investments with
their religious values in 17th century England. (Bugg-Levine & Emerson 2011, 5–6;
Boatright 2014, 150.) In modern finance, this ideology is strongly related to the
sustainable finance movement, which extends to the different dimensions of
sustainability. Thus, one major objective of modern sustainable finance is to contribute
to sustainable development (SD) by considering the effects of finance, including investing
and lending, on economic, social, and environmental issues (Schoenmaker & Schramade
2018, 4).
Sustainable finance has many related terms, which are often treated synonymously,
including, for example, green finance; climate finance; responsible banking; and
environmental, social, and governance (ESG). However, arguably there are differences
between the scopes of the terms as each can be considered to cover diverging dimensions
of SD. For example, green finance is usually referred to when only the environmental
aspect is in consideration, and thus, green bonds can be classified as green financial
products under green finance. ESG, a widely used term in finance, covers almost all
dimensions of SD. It also often refers to quantified scores measuring the level of
sustainability. Generally, the term sustainable finance is considered to cover all of the
dimensions, and it is also treated so in this thesis. (Thompson 2021, 2–3.) ESG is mainly
used to refer to measurable scores. Furthermore, this thesis classifies green bonds as
sustainable debt instruments to ensure consistency and clarity.
Sustainable finance can be seen to be partly incompatible with traditional finance theory.
One big trend among investors is socially responsible investing (SRI), also known as
impact investing. It refers to an investing strategy which accounts for the consequences
3 Miller (2000) refers to the year 1952 as a “big bang” of modern finance, as it is when Harry Markowitz
published an article called “Portfolio Selection” in The Journal of Finance.
14
of the investments to SD, and it essentially leads to the pruning of some investees and
favouring others. (Bugg-Levine & Emerson 2011, 5; Boatright 2014, 150–151.) From the
perspective of Markowitz’s (1952) modern portfolio theory (MPT), a rational investor
maximizes expected returns at a given level of risk by using diversification, done by
selecting various securities for the portfolio. Markowitz argues that for diversification to
be optimal, one should utilize all of the available securities in the market. Therefore,
excluding non-sustainable securities from the portfolio selection is contrary to the MPT.
Although sustainable finance and traditional theories may have some incompatibilities, a
valid claim is that the mere financial benefit is not the full power of capital. For some,
being able to influence matters far beyond the traditional views is what activates the full
potential. (Bugg-Levine & Emerson 2011, 5.) Thus, sustainable finance acknowledges
that financial systems have a leading role in allocating capital to sustainable corporates
and projects and accelerating the transition to more a sustainable future (Schoenmaker &
Schramade 2018, 4).
Many can be perceived to be intrigued by the full power of capital, as sustainable finance
has continued to grow in popularity among researchers and financial market participants.
According to Luo et al. (2022), the Web of Science (WoS) database contained globally
3,786 research articles on some fields of sustainable finance between 2000 and 2021.
They also discovered that the annual number of research papers has continued to grow
consecutively almost every year during this period, with the amount being the highest in
2021. Furthermore, according to PwC’s (2021) global investor survey, in 2021, 79% of
the respondents consider environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks and
opportunities as important factors in making investment decisions. Also, 49% would sell
their investments if the target corporation is not showing enough action in addressing
ESG issues. The growing demands of investors are also reflected in corporate actions,
and KPMG’s (2022) global sustainability reporting survey suggests that 96% of G250
corporates and 79% of N100 corporates report on sustainability or ESG matters.4
Policymakers and various global organizations are also issuing regulations, standards,
and measures to promote the development of sustainable finance. According to European
Policy Center (EPC) (2022), global, regional, and local initiatives play a crucial role in
4 G250 refers to the world’s 250 largest corporates by revenue based on the Fortune 500 ranking, and N100
refers to a worldwide sample of the top 100 corporates by revenue in 58 countries, territories, and
jurisdictions providing a more broad-based snapshot of sustainability reporting (KPMG 2022).
15
achieving the full potential of sustainable finance by providing transparency and
efficiency to the markets. A major goal of the initiatives is to ensure that investments
classified as 'sustainable' truly contribute to SDG objectives. Another important aim is to
prevent greenwashing, where entities make false or misleading claims about the positive
environmental impact of a product, service, or activity (Thompson 2021, 30, 249).
According to International Shareholder Services (ISS) (2022), globally, the EU is a
pioneer in regulatory initiatives, but North America and Australia have also significantly
increased their regulatory efforts. Also, Asia has accelerated the growth in new initiatives.
Although plenty has already been achieved to promote and reinforce sustainable finance,
much remains to be done, especially as geopolitical tensions and other macroeconomic
issues have led to increased challenges in 2022. Significant objectives include, for
example, reducing complexity and creating harmonization. (ISS 2022; EPC 2022.)
2.2 Debt capital markets and sustainable finance
The sustainable finance movement is reflected particularly in the debt capital market
(DCM). It is a place where different debt instruments, mainly bonds, are traded. Debt
instruments, also known as fixed-income assets, can be divided into two main categories.
These are organization-guaranteed bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS).
Organization-guaranteed bonds, typically issued by governments and corporates, are
backed (collateralized) entirely by the issuing organization and raise capital for general
purposes. The interest payments of ABSs are backed by a specified pool of assets, which
are often placed in a corporate structure called a special purpose vehicle (SPV). For
example, the issuers can bundle a pool of loans, securitize their revenues, and use that
income as collateral for an ABS. On top of these two main categories, a broad range of
hybrid structures are available in the DCM. While, for issuers, the debt instruments put
up a possibility to borrow debt capital to finance operations, they also provide an
opportunity to offset liabilities, generate returns, and diversify portfolios for investors.
(Thompson 2021, 238, 273.)
In addition to the DCM, the overall capital markets include the equity market (stock
market), where stocks of listed corporates are traded. However, the DCM is substantially
larger. According to SIFMA’s (2022) capital market fact book, in 2021, the global equity
16
market capitalization was USD 124.4 trillion5, whereas the global debt outstanding was
USD 126.9 trillion. Although with this comparison, the markets seem to have a similar
size, the issuance volume in the DCM is significantly higher. The SIFMA report augments
this statement by disclosing the global debt issuance being USD 26.8 trillion in 2021,
whereas the equity issuance was only USD 1,042 billion. One reason for this can be
considered to be the pecking order theory, according to which corporates prefer debt
financing over equity financing if external capital is needed (Myers & Majluf 1984;
Myers 1984).
As a result of the merger of sustainable finance ideology and the DCM, new sustainable
debt instruments, including green bonds, have gained conspicuous popularity. Table 1
presents the current sustainable debt instruments and their market sizes and shares as at
the end of 2021. For now, green bonds are excluded, as they are presented in depth in the
next chapter. After green bonds, the second most popular sustainable debt instrument is
a social bond, used to finance projects with positive social outcomes such as
socioeconomic advancements, food security, or employment generation and thus
contribute to the social dimension of SD (ICMA 2021b.). The third most popular is a
sustainability bond, which has originated from the perception that green projects
(typically financed by green bonds) can have social co-benefits and vice versa. The fourth
most popular sustainability-linked bond is, by contrast with the other instruments, a
behaviour-based product.6 It means that the financial characteristics of the bond are tied
to pre-set sustainability targets and can therefore vary according to how the issuer
achieves the targets. (ICMA 2020; Bloomberg 2021.) Transition bonds are the latest
newcomers and are mainly found in highly polluting sectors, such as mining and aviation,
which do not fall into the existing definitions of green but are crucial in a transition to net
zero (CBI 2022b).
5 Equivalent to the total market capitalization of the listed corporates globally (SIFMA 2022).
6 All the other sustainable debt instruments can be classified as activity-based products (Bloomberg 2021).
17
Table 1 Sustainable debt instruments (modified from ICMA 2020; ICMA 2021b;
ICMA 2021c; CBI 2022b)
Instrument Definition
Market size 2021
(USD billion)
% of
total
Social Bond Proceeds exclusively applied to
finance or re-finance so-called
‘social projects’, which aim to
achieve greater social benefits.
223.2 20.87%
Sustainability Bond Proceeds exclusively applied to
finance or re-finance projects
that are a combination of both
green and social projects with
co-benefits in either direction.
200.2 18.72%
Sustainability-Linked Bond A forward-looking
performance-based instrument
for which the financial and/or
structural characteristics can
vary depending whether the
issuer achieves predefined
sustainability objectives.
118.8 11.11%
Transition Bond Financing operations that aim to
decarbonize an activity or
support the issuer in its
transition to Paris Agreement
alignment.
4.4 0.41%
The market in which the sustainable debt instruments operate can be referred to as the
sustainable debt market. In recent years, it has grown exponentially, led by green bonds.
According to a global report by Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI) (2022b), the total
sustainable debt market reached a value of almost USD 1.1 trillion in 2021. Compared to
2020, the market saw an increase of 46%. At the end of 2021, the cumulative number of
all sustainable debt instruments placed on the market was 16,697. From these, 5,999 were
issued in 2021, accounting for 35% of the total. Although the share of the sustainable debt
in the overall DCM is still relatively small, it has the potential to increase its significance
in the future if the same growth trajectory continues. However, challenges to the
sustainable debt market, and DCM as a whole, are posed by several factors, such as the
continued Ukraine invasion, high inflation, soaring interest rates, and the growing
concern of global recession (CBI 2022b; Bloomberg 2022a).
18
3 Green bonds
3.1 Definition
Of the sustainable debt instruments discussed earlier, green bonds are by far the most
popular and subject to particular attention and, thus, the main topic of this thesis. In 2021,
they accounted for 49% of the total sustainable debt market, with a market size of USD
522.7 billion (CBI 2022b). Regardless of the recent traction, thus far, there is no globally
accepted universal definition for green bonds. Probably the most widely accepted and
adopted definition is from International Capital Market Association’s (ICMA) (2022)
Green Bond Principles (GBPs). They define green bonds as
any type of bond instrument where the proceeds or an equivalent amount will
be exclusively applied to finance or re-finance, in part or in full, new and/or
existing eligible green projects.
The eligible green projects can be related to, but are not limited to, pollution prevention,
clean transportation, renewable energy, green buildings, climate change adaptation,
biodiversity, or sustainable water management. Although there are several possible
projects to which the proceeds can be applied, the main requirement is that they are related
to the promotion of environmental issues. (ICMA 2022.) According to the CBI, in 2021,
the three largest categories for the use of proceeds were energy, buildings, and transport,
covering 81% of the whole year's total. Given that in 2022, energy, transport, and
production & construction were the world's top 3 most polluting industries7, capital can
be seen to be allocated as desired and expected (The Eco Experts 2022).
Although green bonds have similar features as plain vanilla bonds8, four generally agreed
distinguishing aspects have been specified. Currently, these are (ICMA 2022; Thompson
2021, 241):
1. Use of proceeds: The proceeds should be used to finance projects with green
outcomes.
2. Process for project evaluation and selection: The issuers should communicate the
environmental suitability objectives, the process of determining the fit of the
7 The level of pollution is measured by the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (The Eco Experts
2022).
8 Plain vanilla bond refers to the most basic version of bonds.
19
projects, and complementary information on processes used to identify and
manage risk associated with the selected projects.
3. Disclosure and management of proceeds: The allocation of funds raised from
green bonds should be independently audited and made easily accessible to
stakeholders.
4. Reporting: The issuers should evaluate and report the environmental impacts of
green bonds.
It is essential to point out that these are only recommendations and not requirements for
the issuers. However, they intend to, for example, increase the investors' confidence. In
particular, the issuers' transparent communication and reporting will most likely increase
the trust of investors favouring sustainable investment strategies. (Thompson 2021, 241.)
To date, ICMA (2022) has identified four distinct green bond types.9 The types are
Standard Green Use of Proceeds Bonds, Green Revenue Bonds, Green Project Bonds,
and Secured Green Bonds. They all have specific characteristics and differ by the
intended use and risk profiles. Table 2 assembles the current types with their descriptions.
Standard Green Use of Proceeds Bond is the standard form, and so far, the majority of
green bonds issued are this type. In most cases, these types of debt instruments reduce
credit risk and the risk of default, as the bond is backed by the issuer’s entire balance
sheet, giving rating agencies and investors more confidence. The collateral of Green
Revenue Bonds is the project-linked cash flows (revenue streams), whereas the Green
Project Bonds are backed by the green project(s) assets and balance sheet(s). They are
similar to the extent that the credit exposure of the investors is linked directly with the
success of the project(s) that the bonds are financing. Therefore, they may have a higher
risk profile, which is usually acknowledged, with higher return requirements. (Thompson
2021, 241–242; ICMA 2022.)
Secured Green Bonds can be categorised into Secured Green Collateral Bonds and
Secured Green Standard Bonds. It depends on whether the net proceeds are exclusively
applied to project(s) securing the specific bond only (secured collateral bond) or to
project(s) of the issuer, originator or sponsor, where such projects may or may not be
9 The latest update and specification to the green bond types was done in June 2022.
20
securing the specific bond in whole or in part (secured standard bond). This category type
may include but is not limited to covered bonds, secured notes, securitisations, asset-
backed commercial paper, and other secured structures. (ICMA 2022.) There are also
similar, but slightly different, green bond type classifications available.10 However, they
will not be covered in this thesis since the classification provided by ICMA is considered
widely respected (Refinitiv 2022a).
Table 2 Current green bond types (modified from ICMA 2022; CBI 2022c)
Type Definition
Standard Green Use of Proceeds Bond An unsecured full recourse-to-the-issuer debt
obligation where the bond is backed by the
issuer’s entire balance sheet.
Green Revenue Bond A non-recourse-to-the-issuer debt obligation
where the project-linked pledged cash flows of
the revenue streams, taxes, fees etc. are
collateral for the debt.
Green Project Bond Can be issued for a single or multiple green
project(s), and the recourse is to the green
project(s) assets and balance sheet(s) with or
without potential recourse to the issuer.
Secured Green Bond A secured debt obligation collateralized by a
pool of eligible green projects (assets).
A few sub-categories have also emerged under green bonds. Practically, they are
classified as green bonds but focus more explicitly on the promotion of specific
environmental issues. The most notable ones include climate bonds and blue bonds. The
proceeds of climate bonds are used to mitigate or adapt to the effects of climate change,
and the proceeds of blue bonds are used to support sustainable marine and fisheries
projects. Technically, most of the green bonds could be classified as climate bonds since
the majority of proceeds have been used to finance projects related to climate change,
while blue bonds are a smaller sub-category. (Thompson 2021, 244–245; ICMA 2022.)
Overall, as the green bond market, and the sustainable debt market as a whole, continues
to develop rapidly, the definitions can see changes shortly.
10 See e.g. CBI 2022c.
21
3.2 Global green bond market development
The first-ever green bond was issued in 2007 by a multilateral development bank,
European Investment Bank (EIB), and since then, the market has grown immensely. The
EIB’s green bond portfolio alone had grown to USD 24.5 billion by 2017, covering 160
green projects in 46 countries. (Thompson 2021, 243–244; EIB 2022a.) Figure 1
illustrates the exponential growth of the global green bond market. From 2007 to 2012,
the annual issuance was still relatively small, and the growth was limited. During this
period, the issuers were mostly multilateral development banks, such as EIB, which are
supranational institutions set up by sovereign states (OECD 2015; EIB 2022b). In 2013,
the first corporate issuers joined the market, and since then, the growth has been
explosive, with 2021 being the record-breaking year with over USD half trillion annual
issuance volume. Today, the green bond market issuers include, for example, corporates
(financial and non-financial), countries (sovereign issuers), local governments, and
development banks. Out of the current issuer types, corporates are the most vigorous, and
at the end of 2021, they accounted for 44% of the cumulative green bond volumes. (CBI
2022b.)
Figure 1 Annual green bond issuances in November 2022 (data retrieved from Refinitiv Eikon)
22
In 2021, 73% of the total green bond volume originated from developed markets, while
the rest came from emerging markets and supranational issuers. Figure 2 displays the
geographical distribution of the green bond issuances measured by the USD amount
issued, highlighting the current top 3 green bond issuing regions. These are Europe, Asia-
Pacific, and North America, out of which Asia-Pacific has experienced the strongest
recent growth in green bond issuances, mostly led by China. In 2021, Asia-Pacific was
the second biggest region measured by cumulative green bond issuances, surpassing
North America for the first time in green bond market history. For now, Europe has been
the most dominant region, contributing 50% of the total annual volume in 2021. However,
the leading role might be diminishing in 2022 as Asia-Pacific green bond supply has
increased. As shown in Figure 2, green bonds have not so far gained popularity in Africa,
even though it is one of the territories most affected by climate change. Some of the
reasons include, for example, less developed capital markets and smaller-scale loan
needs. However, it will be interesting to follow in which direction the green bond market
in Africa, as well as in other emerging markets, will develop in the future. (S&P Global
2022a; CBI 2022b.)
Country-wise, at the end of 2021, the US had the largest cumulative green bond issuance
volume of USD 304 billion, followed by China with USD 199 billion. However, China
will likely surpass the US as the number one green bond issuer shortly, as the supply
keeps increasing rapidly in China (Bloomberg 2022b).11 The US green bond market is
typically characterized, by a large number of issuers, with relatively small-sized deals.
The market in China has recently seen a rise in non-financial corporate issuers, although
one-third of the issuers are still financial institutions which lend money to other
corporates' relevant projects. From European countries, France has traditionally been the
pioneer, but as also shown in Figure 2, Germany has taken the number one position
(Thompson 2021, 242). Germany was also the world's leading green bond issuer in Q3
2022, with a volume of USD 15.89 billion. Recently, Italy has also raised its head with
growing green bond volumes on the European market. (S&P Global 2022b; CBI2022b.)
11 The heat map in Figure 2 suggests that China would have already exceeded the US in the amount issued.
The data is retrieved from Refinitiv Eikon at the end of November 2022. However, while writing this thesis,
no official records were found.
23
Figure 2 Geographical heat map of green bond issuances in November 2022 (data retrieved
from Refinitiv Eikon)
Forecasts and expectations for the green bonds market are high. According to CBI
(2022a) forecast, the amount of annual green bond volume is expected to reach a value
between USD 900 billion and USD 1 trillion by the end of 2022. After the first annual
trillion, the next significant milestone would be to hit an annual volume of USD 5 trillion
by 2025. However, this goal is very optimistic, and to reach it, governments,
policymakers, investors, and issuers have to contribute to the market development. (CBI
2022a.) Also, the overall market situation is unfavourable to the forecasts and
expectations. Macroeconomic factors such as the continued Ukraine invasion, high
inflation, hiking interest rates, the European energy crisis, and growing concern about the
recession are threatening the entire world economy, including green bonds (Bloomberg
2022a; IMF 2022a; CBI 2022e). Thus, CBI (2022e) has reported a 22% year-on-year
(YoY) decline in green bond issuances at the end of Q3 2022.
3.3 Current principles, standards and regulations
To date, there is no uniform global standard for green bonds. However, as the global green
bond market keeps growing rapidly, the need for new robust standards, principles and
regulations increases immensely. Also, the lack of universal agreement on common
approaches can be considered to be holding back the development of the green bond
market. One major goal of the standards and principles is to ensure transparency and
24
create trust and credibility in the market. For the participants, they also enable a better
overall understanding and awareness of the market. (Thompson 2021, 245, 249.) Despite
the lack of globally harmonized standards and regulations, some regions and nations have
supported green bond market development through regional and local approaches.
Principles and frameworks are also offered by some associations, namely the
International Capital Market Association (ICMA) and Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI).
Probably the most well-known and widely accepted principles for green bonds are the
ICMA’s (2022) Green Bond Principles (GBPs), which have also been referred to several
times in this thesis. First published in 2014, the principles offer green bond issuers a
collection of voluntary frameworks and outline the best practices. GBPs also serve
investors by providing transparent and necessary information to assess the environmental
impact of green bond investments. The third group, which they also support, are the
underwriters for whom the principles offer vital steps that will facilitate transactions that
preserve market integrity. The newest edition of GBPs was published in June 2021 and
further developed in June 2022. However, since the GBPs are only a voluntary framework
and not a formal regulatory standard, it is evident that different applications of the
principles may occur. (Thompson 2021, 250–252, 256; ICMA 2022.)
To supplement the GBPs, particularly the certification of green bonds, the CBI (2019)
has developed Climate Bonds Standards. The purpose is not to offer competing or
alternative practices to GBPs but to build on its principles, providing even more detailed
descriptions. Thus, it is fully aligned with the GBPs. One of the reasons for the creation
of these complementary standards has been the criticism for the lack of detail of the GBPs.
The standard is divided into pre-issuance requirements and post-issuance requirements.
The pre-issuance requirements are those that the issuer must meet when applying for a
certification ahead of issuance, and the post-issuance requirements are those that the
issuer must meet when seeking continued certification following the issuance. If the issuer
meets the requirements, they have the possibility for an independent assurance provided
by the Approved Verifier. The assurance is beneficial for the relationship between the
issuer and the investors. On top of the certification specification, the Climate Bonds
Standard also offers detailed criteria for the use of proceeds. Overall, the standard is a
more rigorous addition to the GBPs. (CBI 2019; Thompson 2021, 256–257.)
25
The latest significant news on the development of green bond standards and principles is
from China. The China Green Bond Standard Committee published new voluntary China
Green Bond Principles in July 2022. Like the CBI’s Climate Bonds Standard, they refer
to and have similar attributes to the GBPs by ICMA but are more directed to domestic
green bond issuances. China’s green bond principles make four core components for the
issuance of green bonds, which are the use of proceeds, management of the proceeds,
project evaluation and selection, and duration of information disclosure. Although the
principles are aimed at domestic issuances, the intention is partly to make more of the
green bonds in China globally recognized. A significant part of this new update is that
there have been plans for rule changes that would make these policies mandatory for
exchange-traded bonds. There are speculations that if this rule change comes to force,
China could become a leader in global green bond regulation. (Sustainable Fitch 2022;
Reuters 2022.)
Over the past few years, green bond taxonomies have become an increasingly important
topic of discussion. According to CBI (2022b, 2022g), a taxonomy is “a classification
system that identifies activities, assets or revenue segments that deliver on key
environmental objectives”. They aim to provide guidance and, more importantly, clarity
to the market participants on which activities or assets are eligible for sustainable
investments and thus support the development of the green bond market. For decades, the
eligibility of assets for inclusion in ESG and other sustainable products has been
determined by principles, definitions, and classification systems, such as ESG scores,
offered by agents in the private sector. The new taxonomies, however, have been put
forward by public actors to form a more top-down approach to determining green
activities. The taxonomies are generally publicly available, granular, and science-based.
In time, the taxonomies have become more detailed and mandatory for market
participants. (CBI 2022b, 2022g.)
Currently, the main actors in the field of green taxonomy are China and the EU. Out of
these, China was the first to put forward a mandatory domestic taxonomy for the issuance
of green bonds in 2015. It goes by the name of the Green Bond Endorsed Project
Catalogue or China Taxonomy.12 In the EU, the European Commission established a
12 The latest version of the China Taxonomy was published in April 2021 and was updated to align more
closely with global definitions (PBOC 2021; CBI 2022b).
26
Technical Expert Group (TEG) on sustainable finance in 2018, intending to develop the
EU-wide taxonomy and other related action plans.13 The TEG published the final report
on EU Taxonomy in March 2020, containing recommendations related to the overarching
design of the taxonomy. However, the taxonomy is still not fully complete and is being
developed in several stages. The latest development step is the Climate Delegated Act,
which provides taxonomy criteria on climate change mitigation measures, and was put to
force in January 2022. (TEG 2020; European Commission 2022a; European Commission
2022b.) Although the EU and China are the two current main taxonomy agents,
taxonomies are also either in discussion, development, or draft elsewhere. For example,
at the beginning of 2022, taxonomies were in discussion in Australia and Mexico, in
development in Brazil, Canada, India, Japan and Kazakhstan, and in the draft in South
Africa and the UK. (Thompson 2021, 257–258; CBI 2022b, 2022g.)
3.4 Challenges
At first glance, the proliferation of green bonds appears to be an adequate and good thing.
However, there are still various challenges to overcome concerning green bonds. For
example, the maintenance of market integrity and transparency becomes an essential
factor as the market is growing and developing at a rapid pace. Thus, it is crucial to
evaluate the green bond phenomenon from a critical aspect and highlight the current
challenges that the market is facing. The previously discussed principles, standards, and
regulations play a significant role in ensuring that the development goes in the desired
direction. Despite the recent developments, a lot remains to be done. (Thompson 2021,
241; Financial Times 2022.)
One broadly highlighted significant challenge is the increasing risk of greenwashing. It
means that the issuers may seek to take advantage of the investors, following the impact
investing guidelines, by labelling the issued bonds as ‘green’ but not committing to the
promotion of environmental issues (Thompson 2021, 30, 249). This can also be described
as a ‘moral hazard’ problem caused by asymmetric information between the issuers and
the investors. The rapid expansion of the green bond market has only accelerated the
concerns of both regulators and investors. (Financial Times 2022.) Although principles,
13 The TEG also published a recommendation for a voluntary EU Green Bond Standard (EU GBS) in June
2019 and updated them in March 2020 (European Commission 2022c). However, as of writing this thesis,
it is not in application.
27
standards, and regulations are already widely used, they are not yet sufficient to eliminate
the threat of greenwashing altogether. According to CBI (2022f), in 2022, 3 in every 4
dollars from green bond issuances met the best practice climate standards. However, as
there still are so-called ‘self-labelled’ green bonds that are not aligned with the current
standards and are not externally verified, the risk of greenwashing persists. Of course, the
mitigation of greenwashing also requires greater criticalness on the part of investors, but
responsibility cannot be entirely theirs to carry.
One of the problems of the current standards is the voluntary nature of their use, which
can lead to governance and legitimacy deficits. Consequently, there have been
discussions about whether mandatory standards, instead of voluntary ones, should be
applied to prevent greenwashing better.14 However, there are also fears that mandatory
standards would increase the costs of issuing green bonds, and affect the willingness to
use them as a source of green financing. (Financial Times 2022.) China’s recent
reformation of their national green bond principles to make them more globally aligned
and the possible update to make them mandatory may serve as a possible benchmark for
the best practices in the future. Furthermore, if the new approach is put to force and found
to work well, it could also be applied in other nations. Therefore, China has the
opportunity to act as a kind of pioneer in the development of the green bond market.
Speaking of China, it has particularly high stakes regarding green bonds. China's
president Xi Jinping's government has the twin goals of peaking emissions by 2030 and
achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. (Bloomberg 2022b; Reuters 2022.) If these goals
are achieved, according to Climate Action Tracker (2020), it would be the biggest single
reduction in global warming projections in history. However, the current reality with
green bonds, especially in China, is that it is almost impossible to know how the capital
is spent and whether it is having the desired impact. This issue is evident, for example, in
the case of financial institution issuers that use the proceeds from green bonds to lend
capital to relevant projects, meaning that they do not have their own projects to finance
directly. In China, financial institutions cover one-third of the issued green bonds. In
14 See e.g. European Parliament (2021).
28
addition, the Chinese green bond market also suffers from the risk of greenwashing and
general uncertainty.15 (Bloomberg 2022b.)
Globally, there is a need for better harmonization of the green bond market. For investors,
the existence of several diverging standards can lower confidence and increase transaction
costs as there is a need to assess multiple different standards. However, global
harmonization is easier said than done and requires vigorous dialogue among all the
market participants. (German Development Institute 2017.) It would be particularly
desirable to standardize the taxonomy globally to have a universal and unambiguous
understanding of what green bonds are and what they can be used for. Multiple separate
taxonomies can lead to market fragmentation, limit the functioning of the global green
bond market and make international mobility of green capital challenging. So far, this has
not been achieved, but there are some collective efforts, such as the International Platform
on Sustainable Finance (IPSF), developed by the EU and China to serve as a foundation
for a common ground taxonomy.16 (CBI 2022g.) However, as the green bond market
grows, the puzzle becomes increasingly complex. Therefore, the action should be as swift
as possible.
3.5 Previous studies
As the green bond market evolves at an accelerating pace and in the presence of several
challenges, it is interesting to assess how investors view green bond issuances. Besides,
the investors who buy the bonds, are the ones lending the money to the issuers. One way
to assess this is to examine the impact of green bond issuance announcements on the stock
returns of the listed corporate issuers. It essentially describes how the equity market reacts
to green bonds and whether investors see the issuance as a positive or negative sign under
current market conditions. This research approach also makes it possible to assess
whether the listed issuers, on top of gaining debt financing for operations, get extra
benefits from issuing green bonds. For example, issuing green bonds might lead to
increased investor engagement, as green bonds might serve as a signal for the
environmental commitment of the issuer (Flammer 2021). There are some previous
studies on this topic, and most of them, although not all, have found green bonds to have
15 According to Bloomberg (2022b), in a rare interview, even the Chinese PBOC Governor Yi Gang has
warned against greenwashing, low-cost arbitrage, and green project fraud in China's green bond market.
16 IPFS is a forum for dialogue between policymakers to increase the amount of private capital being
invested in environmentally sustainable investments (European Commission 2022d).
29
a positive impact on the stock returns of the issuer. Some studies have also examined
whether there are any green bond or issuer characteristics that would be linked to these
abnormal returns.
Baulkaran (2019) studied the stock market reaction to green bond issuance
announcements with observations mainly from Europe but also from Canada, the US,
China, and Australia. The final sample consisted of 54 green bonds issued by public
corporates, and the research method was an event study. The issuance announcement
dates were had-collected for each observation using news articles and company press
releases. The results suggest that the stock market reaction is positive and statistically
significant around the announcement date. A regression analysis was also conducted, to
further examine the link between abnormal returns and bond and firm characteristics. The
only bond characteristic linked with the returns was the coupon, and the result suggested
that a higher coupon resulted in lower abnormal returns. Out of the examined firm
characteristics, operating cash flows, firm size, and growth opportunities had statistically
significant linkage. (Baulkaran 2019.)
Lebelle et al. (2020) examined corporate green bond issuances globally. The initial
sample was 2,079 green bond issuances of 190 individual corporate issuers from 2009 to
2018. The final sample for the empirical study contained 475 green bonds issued by 145
individual public corporates. The research method was an event study, and the observed
event was the green bond issuance announcement date. Contrary to the majority of the
results from similar studies, the results suggest that the market reacts negatively to the
green bond issuance announcement. Thus, the results imply that green bond issuances
convey unfavourable information about the issuing corporation to the investors. In
addition, the negative response was stronger for first-time issuances compared to
subsequent issuances, and for issuers in developing markets compared to emerging
markets. They also found that financial corporates experienced a stronger negative impact
than non-financial corporates, although the magnitude of the differences was small. They
also examined the dependency of abnormal returns on issuer characteristics and found
leverage, book-to-market ratio, and growth to have a statistically significant linkage.
(Lebelle et al 2020.)
Tang and Zhang (2020) examined green bonds globally from the shareholder's benefit
perspective. Their initial sample was 1,510 observations from 28 countries from 2007 to
30
2017. Of these, 241 green bonds were issued by 132 unique public corporates. The chosen
research method was an event study, and the observed event was the issuance
announcement date. They found green bond issuance announcements to have a positive
and significant impact on the stock prices of public issuers. The impact was stronger for
non-financial corporate issuers compared to financial institution issuers. Also, the
response was stronger for first-time issuances. In addition, they found green bonds to
increase institutional ownership and improve stock liquidity after the issuance. They
concluded that by issuing green bonds, it is possible to attract more positive media
exposure, and through this, investors that follow the guidelines of impact investing are
more likely to invest in the issuing company. (Tang & Zhang 2020.)
Glavas (2020) examined stock price reactions to green bond issuance announcements
globally. The data consisted of 302 corporate green bonds and 478 conventional bonds,
which were added to the analysis to allow comparison. The research method was an event
study. The results implied a significant and positive reaction to all bond issuance
announcements. However, the reaction was higher for green bond issuances compared to
conventional bond issuances. This result suggests that the announcement of the green
bond issuance contains value-generation information and is perceived as a value-creating
event. In addition, the positive stock reaction was stronger after the Paris Agreement17 in
2015, suggesting that the agreement has been key to the interest of investors in green
bonds. (Glavas 2020.)
Wang et al. (2020) examined the market reaction to green bond issuances in China, the
largest emerging debt market. They also studied whether green bonds have a pricing
premium over conventional bonds. They constructed a comprehensive sample of Chinese
corporate green bonds issued between 2016 and 2019. The final sample consisted of 159
green bonds and 297 conventional bonds. Of these, 48 green bonds and 75 conventional
bonds, were issued by publicly listed issuers. The research method for observing the
market reaction was an event study. After conducting the event analysis for both green
and conventional bonds, they found that the difference in abnormal returns on the
announcement date was insignificant. However, for longer time windows around the
event, the cumulative abnormal returns were significant, positive and higher for green
17 The Paris Agreement is a legally binding global treaty on climate change adopted by 196 countries in
Paris on 12 December 2015 (UNFCCC 2022).
31
bonds. Thus, the results suggest that the equity market reacts positively to the green bond
issuance announcement in China. In addition, the pricing effect for green bonds was found
to be positive and significant. (Wang et al. 2020.)
Flammer (2021) examined corporate green bonds globally between 2013 and 2018. The
initial sample consisted of 1,189 corporate green bonds. Of these, 565 were issued by
public corporates. An event study method was used to study the equity market reaction to
the green bond issuance announcements. The final sample for the event study consisted
of 384 issuer-day green bond observations. The results suggest that the market response
was positive and significant to the issuance announcement. Also, it was stronger for first-
time issuers and green bonds, which were certified by independent third parties. In
addition, an interesting finding was that companies that issued green bonds improved
their environmental performance, meaning higher environmental ratings and lower CO2
emissions, following the issuance, suggesting that there is no sign of greenwashing. The
green bond issuers also experienced an increase in ownership by green and long-term
investors. (Flammer 2021.)
As presented above, previous studies suggest largely consistent results from the equity
market response to the green bond issuance announcement. Overall, the results imply a
positive reaction. However, since not all results are unanimous, further research is
necessary. Also, the green bond market is constantly generating new data and the market
experiences regulatory changes rapidly. Therefore, examining the equity market response
to the green bond issuance announcements remains meaningful, and studying this topic
is important for both investors and issuers.
32
4 Data and research methods
4.1 Data
The data is retrieved from Refinitiv Eikon. The green bonds data in Refinitiv Eikon is
originally from Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI) (Refinitiv 2021). For now, there is no
centralized database for green bonds. ICMA (2017) provides a summary of the available
green bond database providers, the major ones being Bloomberg, Environmental Finance,
Dealogic, and CBI. Lebelle et al. (2020) add Trucost, owned by S&P Global, to this list.
Out of these, the CBI's database is the oldest, established in 2013, and it is also the most
comprehensive provider of green bond data. A green bond has to be aligned with the
GBPs to be included in the database, adding credibility to the data. Thus, CBI’s database
has been utilized in several previous studies on green bonds (See e.g. Tang & Zhang 2020;
Lebelle et al. 2020; Tolliver et al. 2020).
The data is global, and the focus is on green bonds issued by listed corporates between
2013 and 2021. The green bonds data is retrieved using Refinitiv’s Government Corporate
Bonds – Advanced Search app. Issuer Type is set to Corporate, and Bond Type to Bond.18
Green bond criterion is set to ‘Yes’, and Prospectus is needed to be available.19 With these
selections, the initial sample retrieved from the app, consisted of a total of 2,761
individual corporate green bonds between 2013 and 2021. Table 3 displays further
screening criteria of the green bond sample. Since the study examines the green bond
issuance announcements’ effect on stock returns, criterion No. 1 is set to exclude private
issuers and asset types such as unit trusts and preferred shares from the sample. Criteria
No. 2 and 3 are set to ensure that the sample is reliable and allows for a comprehensive
analysis. Criterion No. 4 certifies that the data contains only pure green bonds and not,
for example, sustainability-linked bonds. Criterion No. 5 is essential for the chosen
research method. Since some corporations issue multiple green bonds on the same date,
similar to Flammer (2021), criterion No. 6 is set to include only issuer-day observations
in the sample.
18 Certificates of Deposits and Commercial papers are excluded.
19 Prospectus is a legal document that provides, for example, details of the use of proceeds.
33
Table 3 Screening criteria for green bonds
Criterion Description
No. 1 Issuer listed in the stock market with the asset type being ordinary
share.
No. 2 Required green bond data: First announcement date, Issuance date,
Amount issued, Coupon, Maturity, Currency & Use of Proceeds.
No. 3 Required issuer data: Issuer Name, TRBC Sector Classification,
Domicile, Accounting Data (Assets, Liabilities etc.) & Refinitiv ESG
score.
No. 4 Issuer ESG Label, the original label used by the issuer for a green bond
in the prospectus or official source, is available and set to ‘Yes’.
No. 5 Stock prices are available at least 282 trading days prior and 20 trading
days after the First Announced Date.
No. 6 Only unique issuer-day observations are included.
The final green bond sample contains 564 green bond issuances from 31 countries by 272
publicly listed corporate issuers. Table 4 presents the observations by country and
economic sector. Regionally, based on the amount issued, Europe is the first (USD 123.4
billion), North America is the second (USD 63.8 billion), and Asia-Pacific is the third
(USD 45.9 billion). The regional distribution corresponds fairly well to the volume
distribution of the 2021 green bond market, where Europe contributed half of the volume
of the year, Asia-Pacific around one quarter, and North America just under one-fifth. At
the end of 2021, the cumulative volume of green bonds issued by financial and non-
financial corporates was around USD 704 billion. Not all of these corporates are listed.
(CBI 2021b.) Given that, in this study, only listed corporates are included, the sample can
be considered rather comprehensive, with a total amount of USD 234.3 billion issued.
However, it is also good to point out that the data availability has imposed some
constraints.
34
Table 4 Green bond sample by country and economic sector
This table presents the green bond sample used in the empirical study by country and economic sector,
sorted by the amount issued. Others row in Panel A includes countries with an amount issued under USD
1 billion, including UAE, Turkey, Hong Kong, South Africa, Switzerland, New Zealand, India, Brazil, and
Chile. Panel B presents the sample distribution by The Refinitiv® Business Classification (TRBC)
Economic Sectors. In total, there are 13 different TRBC Economic Sectors.
Amount Issued
(USD Billion)
% of
Total
# of Green
Bonds
% of
Total
Panel A: By Country
US 62.7 26.77 % 98 17.38 %
China (Mainland) 30.6 13.07 % 43 7.62 %
France 25.8 11.03 % 44 7.80 %
Germany 23.1 9.84 % 45 7.98 %
Spain 19.1 8.15 % 39 6.91 %
Italy 14.6 6.24 % 24 4.26 %
Japan 11.0 4.69 % 83 14.72 %
Norway 8.4 3.58 % 24 4.26 %
United Kingdom 7.1 3.03 % 13 2.30 %
Sweden 6.0 2.57 % 57 10.11 %
Denmark 4.7 2.01 % 7 1.24 %
Austria 2.9 1.24 % 11 1.95 %
Ireland 2.3 0.96 % 3 0.53 %
Australia 2.2 0.95 % 4 0.71 %
Belgium 1.8 0.75 % 3 0.53 %
Portugal 1.8 0.75 % 2 0.35 %
Finland 1.7 0.72 % 7 1.24 %
Netherlands 1.6 0.67 % 2 0.35 %
Taiwan 1.4 0.61 % 26 4.61 %
Canada 1.1 0.47 % 3 0.53 %
Poland 1.1 0.46 % 3 0.53 %
Greece 1.0 0.43 % 2 0.35 %
Other 2.4 1.01 % 21 3.72 %
Panel B: By Economic Sector
Financials 115.7 49.37 % 230 40.78 %
Utilities 53.1 22.67 % 92 16.31 %
Real Estate 34.9 14.90 % 143 25.35 %
Technology 9.5 4.04 % 20 3.55 %
Consumer Cyclicals 8.6 3.68 % 15 2.66 %
Industrials 4.8 2.03 % 34 6.03 %
Basic Materials 3.1 1.34 % 13 2.30 %
Consumer Non-Cyclicals 2.2 0.94 % 8 1.42 %
Energy 2.2 0.92 % 8 1.42 %
Healthcare 0.2 0.10 % 1 0.18 %
Total 234.3 100 % 564 100 %
35
The economic sector classification in Table 4 is based on the TRBC (The Refinitiv
Business Classification) Sector Classification, which covers over 250 000 securities in
130 countries to 5 levels of granularity. According to Refinitiv, it is the most
comprehensive sector and industry classification available. A significant part of the
sample is from the Financials sector. It consists of four different business sectors, which
are Banking & Investment Services, Insurance, Collective Investments, and Investment
Holding Companies. (Refinitiv 2022b.) A difference between the non-financial and
financial sectors is that the non-financial issuers use the proceeds from green bonds to
finance green projects directly, whereas financial issuers use the proceeds to finance
projects of other corporates' through loans (green lending) (see e.g. Lebelle et al. 2020;
Wang et al. 2020; Fatica et al. 2021). Especially in Asia, the green bond market is
currently dominated by banks in the financial sector (Taghizadeh-Hesary et al. 2021;
Bloomberg 2022b). The majority of the observations from China, Germany, Spain, Japan,
Norway, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Taiwan, Canada, and Poland
are from the financial sector. Also, Ireland, Australia, Belgium, UAE, South Africa,
Switzerland, India, and Chile have observations only from financial corporates. This
indicates that the financial sector is also prominent outside of Asia.
Panel A in Table 4 presents the summary statistics of the included green bonds. The mean
of the amount issued is USD 415.4 million, but the amounts vary substantially. Compared
to the total green bond market, CBI (2022b) reports the average size of a green bond being
USD 250 million in 2021. The large mean of the final sample is explained by the large
green bond issuances by Chinese financial corporates, with the biggest being USD 4.1
billion. The sample's largest non-financial corporate green bond is issued by an
automobile manufacturer Ford Motor Company in the US. An interesting observation is
a green bond with 1000-year maturity issued by the Danish energy corporation Orsted in
2019. Orsted is the world's largest offshore wind farm developer and issued a 1000-year
maturity bond also earlier in 2017 (Insider 2017). The coupon rates of the green bonds
are scattered moderately evenly between the minimum and maximum values. The sample
includes 29 zero-coupon green bonds.
Panel B in Table 4 presents summary statistics of the individual issuers. The total amount
of issuers is 272. The size of the issuers varies substantially, measured both by market
capitalization and total assets, and thus, the variance of the size measures are large. The
leverage ratios (debt-to-equity) are overall moderate, with a mean of 0.73. Moreover, all
36
the ratios are under one, meaning that the issuers have more equity over debt. The return
on assets (ROA) is quite low for all the issuers. For some, the ROA is negative, indicating
that some issuers may be generating losses. Tobin’s Q is used to measure growth
opportunities. For many issuers, it is under 1, suggesting that the market value is lower
than the book value of assets. (Tobin 1969, 1978; Baulkaran 2019.) Overall, the size
measures, leverage, ROA, and Tobin’s Q of the issuers in this study are largely in line
with those reported by, for example, Baulkaran (2019), Lebelle et al. (2020), and Tang
and Zhang (2020). To a large extent, the ESG and pillar scores are high for the issuers,
although some are surprisingly low. One could expect the green bond issuers to have a
higher environmental rating. However, an interesting finding is that the environmental
pillar score does not differ substantially from the other pillars.
Table 5 Summary statistics of green bonds and issuers
This table presents the means, medians, minimums, maximums, and standard deviations of the green bond
and issuer characteristics of the final sample observations. Panel A displays the green bond characteristics,
and Panel B the issuer characteristics. All the monetary values are in USD. Maturity does not include the
entire sample since four of the observed green bonds are perpetual bonds meaning they do not have a
maturity date. The issuer characteristics are from the end of the fiscal year 2021. Leverage is defined as
total liabilities divided by total assets. ROA (Return on Assets) is defined by income after taxes for the
fiscal year divided by the average of total assets. Tobin's Q is a measure of growth opportunities and is
defined as the market value of equity plus the book value of debt divided by the book value of assets. ESG
score and pillar scores are Refinitiv ESG Scores. All the issuers are listed corporates with publicly traded
shares.
USD N Mean Median Stdev Min Max
Panel A: Green Bonds
Amount Issued (Million) 564 415.406 350.000 479.112 0.006 4143.704
Maturity at Issue (years) 560 10.175 6.669 42.614 0.722 1000.000
Annual Coupon % 564 1.789 1.375 1.557 0.000 8.850
Panel B: Issuers
Market Cap (Billion) 272 38.878 10.632 159.529 0.237 2403.239
Total Assets (Billion) 272 290.723 39.174 705.855 0.742 5536.969
Leverage 272 0.727 0.736 0.185 0.247 0.967
ROA 272 0.037 0.021 0.056 –0.044 0.557
Tobin's Q 272 0.734 0.653 0.701 0.051 7.156
ESG score 272 66.353 70.202 17.477 17.497 95.392
Environmental Pillar 272 69.211 72.915 21.317 0.000 99.200
Social Pillar 272 67.482 72.845 20.767 10.347 98.315
Governance Pillar 272 61.067 65.773 21.556 6.988 97.004
37
4.2 Research methods
4.2.1 Event study
The event study method has a long history in finance research. The first forms of event
studies can be seen published as early as the early 1930s. However, Ball and Brown
(1968) and Fama et al. (1969) can be considered pioneers of its current form. An event
study is an applicable way to measure the effects of specific events on different financial
variables. The event can be, for example, an announcement related to stock splits,
dividends or mergers and acquisitions. (MacKinlay 1997; Brooks 2014, 634.) In this
study the event under scrutiny is the first announcement date of the green bond issuance
available in the Refinitiv Eikon database. The frequency of the data for event study can
be weekly, daily, or monthly. However, daily is the most used frequency for studies in
the literature as it has been shown to have greater power to detect abnormal performance.
(MacKinlay 1997; Brooks 2014, 635.) The frequency of choice for this study is also daily,
which comforts the nature of the event.
Figure 3 illustrates the structure of an event study. 0 represents the day of the event, which
in this case, is the first announcement date. The estimation window determines the
expected or normal return for security if the event did not happen. The length of the
estimation window for this study is [–281, –30], equivalent to 252 trading days (one
trading year) before the event. The event window comprises the days to be examined to
capture the possible abnormal returns around the event. The length of the event window
can vary, and it is typical to examine a few different windows. In this study, the chosen
event windows are a 41-day window [–20, +20], 21-day window [–10, +10], 11-day
window [–5, +5], and 3-day window [–1, +1]. Out of these, [–5, +5] is considered as the
baseline event window. In addition, a 10-day pre-event window [–10, –1] before the event
and an 11-day post-event window [+10, +20] after the event are observed. The pre-event
window aims to examine whether there is a possible leakage of information prior to the
announcement. On the contrary, the post-event window aims to examine whether there is
a possible delay in the equity market reaction. (MacKinlay 1997; Brooks 2014, 635–636.)
38
Figure 3 Event study structure (modified from MacKinlay 1997)
The underlying aim of an event study is to determine if the cross-sectional distribution of
returns is abnormal at the time of a specific event (Kothari & Warner 2007). According
to Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), it is impossible to gain abnormal returns if the
markets are informationally efficient, as all the asset prices reflect all available
information (Pilbeam 2018, 229). Thus, event studies are testing whether the efficient
market hypothesis holds. A simple way of calculating abnormal returns is
𝐴𝑅𝑖𝑡 = 𝑅𝑖𝑡– 𝐸(𝑅𝑖𝑡), (1)
where 𝐴𝑅𝑖𝑡 is the abnormal return, 𝑅𝑖𝑡 is the actual return, and 𝐸(𝑅𝑖𝑡) is the expected or
normal return for security 𝑖 for time period 𝑡. This approach can be referred to as the
average return model. (Armitage 1995; MacKinlay 1997; Brooks 2014, 636.)
Numerous more sophisticated approaches have also been created for event studies to
increase the robustness of the results. In this thesis, the utilized method is a statistical
market model. The market model is probably the most common approach for estimating
abnormal returns. It is also widely used in previous green bond event studies (see e.g.
Baulkaran 2019; Lebelle et al. 2020; Flammer 2021). In the market model, the expected
(or normal) return is estimated using a one-factor ordinary least squares (OLS) regression.
The market model for security 𝑖 is defined as
𝑅𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖 + 𝛽𝑖𝑅𝑚𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (2)
𝐸(𝜀𝑖𝑡 = 0)
𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝜀𝑖𝑡) = 𝜎𝜀𝑖
2 ,
where 𝛼𝑖, 𝛽𝑖 and 𝜎𝜀𝑖
2 are the parameters of the market model, 𝑅𝑖𝑡 and 𝑅𝑚𝑡 are the returns
for security 𝑖 and market portfolio 𝑚 for time period 𝑡, and 𝜀𝑖𝑡 is the zero mean error term.
Typically, major stock indices are used to proxy for the market portfolio. (MacKinlay
39
1997; Brooks 2014, 637.) In this study, a major stock market index of each country under
scrutiny is utilized. The used country-specific indices are listed in the appendices.
Returns for securities and markets are calculated using the Total Return Index (RI)
retrieved from Refinitiv Datastream. RI accounts for dividends by assuming that they are
re-invested, which mitigates possible large price fluctuations caused by dividend
payments. The returns are calculated using a trade-to-trade approach, where the
calculation is done from non-missing price days.20 Another option would be to use
lumped returns which consist of trade-to-trade returns on non-missing price days and zero
on missing price days. However, Campbell et al. (2010) suggest that using trade-to-trade
returns is sufficient in the multi-county setting. If the event day, the first announcement
date, is a non-trading day, the event is assumed to be the next trading day. The returns are
calculated using both local currencies and USD, and the event study is conducted with
both currencies.21
The returns are calculated as daily logarithmic returns (log-returns) with the following
equation:
𝑅𝑡 = 100% × ln (
𝑅𝐼𝑡
𝑅𝐼𝑡−1
), (3)
where 𝑅𝐼𝑡 is the total return index for trading day 𝑡 and 𝑅𝐼𝑡−1 is the total return index for
𝑡– 1. The benefit of log-returns is that they are analytically more trackable and can be
interpreted as continuously compounded returns, which is also a crucial attribute for the
event study. Also, log-returns are more likely to be normally distributed, which comforts
the assumptions of statistical techniques. Thus, they are commonly used in the academic
finance literature. (Strong 1992; Brooks 2014, 7–8.)
The OLS estimators for market model parameters α̂, ?̂?and ?̂?2 are
?̂?𝑖 =
∑ (𝑅𝑖𝑡– ?̂?𝑖)(𝑅𝑚𝑡−?̂?𝑚)
𝑇1
𝑡=𝑇0+1
∑ (𝑅𝑚𝑡−?̂?𝑚)2
𝑇1
𝑡=𝑇0+1
(4)
20 When using Refinitiv Datastream's RI for calculating returns, it is important to note that it ignores market
holidays (non-trading days). One way to deal with this is to use the function
X(RI)*IF#(X(P#S),NNA,ONE), which gives a negative value to the non-trading days. After this, the
negative values can be highlighted and excluded from the data.
21 Campbell et al. (2010) report that the use of the local-currency market model abnormal returns is
sufficient in a multi-country setting. However, according to Aktas et al. (2004), the use of a common
currency, more specifically the USD, does not have a major impact on the inferences of the results.
40
?̂?𝑖 = ?̂?𝑖– ?̂?𝑖?̂?𝑚 (5)
?̂?𝜀𝑖
2 =
1
𝐿1−2
∑ (𝑅𝑖𝑡 − ?̂?𝑖 − ?̂?𝑖𝑅𝑚𝑡)
2𝑇1
𝑡=𝑇0+1
, (6)
where 𝐿1 is the length of the estimation window, and ?̂?𝑖 and ?̂?𝑚 are means of the returns
during estimation window for security 𝑖 and market portfolio 𝑚. After estimating the
parameters, the values are used to calculate the abnormal returns. The equation for
abnormal return (AR) is
𝐴𝑅𝑖𝑡 = 𝑅𝑖𝑡– (?̂?𝑖 + ?̂?𝑖𝑅𝑚𝑡). (7)
In the market model, the abnormal returns are disruptions from normal returns estimated
through the market portfolio. By using the ARs it is also possible to calculate average
abnormal returns (AAR) by
𝐴𝐴𝑅𝑡 =
1
𝑁
∑ 𝐴𝑅𝑖𝑡
𝑁
𝑖=1 , (8)
where 𝑁 is the number of the observed events. (Armitage 1995; MacKinlay 1997; Brooks
2014, 637–638.)
To conclude the overall pattern of abnormal returns in the specified event window, a
cumulative abnormal return (CAR) over a multi-period window can be calculated.
Equation for CAR from time 𝑡1to 𝑡2 is
𝐶𝐴𝑅𝑖(𝑡1, 𝑡2) = ∑ 𝐴𝑅𝑖𝑡
𝑡2
𝑡=𝑡1
. (9)
Thus, CAR sums daily abnormal returns together in the specified event window. In this
study, CAR is used to summarize the results of each examined event window. By using
CARs, we can calculate cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) with the
following equation:
𝐶𝐴𝐴𝑅𝑖(𝑡1, 𝑡2) =
1
𝑁
∑ 𝐶𝐴𝑅𝑖(𝑡1, 𝑡2)
𝑁
𝑖=1 , (10)
where 𝑁 is the number of individual observations. CAAR can also be calculated as the
sum of AARs over a specific window.
41
In the market model, the null hypothesis, 𝐻0, is that the abnormal return is zero meaning
that the event has no impact on the stock returns. That is, the abnormal returns are
normally distributed with a zero conditional mean and conditional variance of
𝜎2(𝐴𝑅𝑖𝑡) = 𝜎𝜀𝑖
2 +
1
𝐿1
[1 +
(𝑅𝑚𝑡−?̂?𝑚)
2
?̂?𝑚
2 ] (11)
where 𝜎𝜀𝑖
2 is the disturbance variance from Equation (2). (Fama et al. 1969; MacKinlay
1997; Brooks 2014, 638–640) The zero mean null hypothesis also applies for this event
study.
Two different statistical tests are applied to test the significance of the event study results.
The first is the parametric t-test. The cross-sectional t-test is given by
𝑡 =
𝐴𝐴𝑅/𝐶𝐴𝐴𝑅
𝜎/√𝑁
~N(0,1), (12)
where the numerator is either AAR or CAAR, and the denominator is the standard error
(S.E.) of the numerator, calculated by dividing standard deviation of the observations 𝜎
with the square root of the number of observations 𝑁. (Brown and Warner 1985, Brooks
2014, 639–640; Stock & Watson 2020, 113.)
Campbell et al. (2010) have reported that in multi-country settings, the non-parametric
tests, such as generalized sign and rank tests, appear to be more powerful than the
commonly utilized parametric tests such as t-tests. Thus, the second statistical test is the
non-parametric generalized sign test introduced by Cowan (1992). It examines whether
the number of securities with positive CARs (or ARs) in the event window (or on an
observed day) exceeds the number expected in the absence of abnormal performance. The
expected number is based on the amount of positive abnormal returns in the 252-day
estimation period,
?̂? =
1
N
∑
1
252
∑ 𝑆𝑖𝑡
−30
𝑡=−281
𝑁
𝑖=1 ,
where
𝑆𝑖𝑡 = {
1 𝑖𝑓 𝐴𝑅𝑖𝑡 > 0
0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
The generalized sign test uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution with
estimated parameter ?̂?. The final test statistic is
42
𝑍𝐺𝑆 =
𝑤−𝑁?̂?
√𝑁?̂?(1−?̂?)
, (13)
where 𝑤 is the number of securities in the event window (or on the observed day) with
positive CAR (or AR). (Cowan 1992; Campbell et al. 2010.)
4.2.2 Regression analysis
To further examine the cumulative abnormal returns, a regression analysis is conducted.
The aim is to identify possible significant links between the different green bond and
issuer characteristics and CARs. In other words, by choosing relevant characteristics, the
goal is to explain the positive or negative equity market reaction more comprehensively.
Regression analysis also allows us to interpret which type of corporates benefit or
disbenefit from the green bond issuance announcements. (Brooks 2014, 640.) A similar
approach has also been utilized in previous green bond studies, and some links have been
identified (see e.g. Baulkaran 2019; Lebelle et al. 2020). Due to the diverging nature of
the use of proceeds in the financial sector, the financial and non-financial corporates are
examined as separate groups. Also, this enables highlighting possible differences between
the financial and non-financial corporate green bond issuers.
By using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, the following regression is estimated:
𝐶𝐴𝑅𝑖(𝑡1, 𝑡2) = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐴𝑀𝑇𝐼𝑆𝑆𝑈𝐸𝐷𝑖 + 𝛽2𝐶𝑂𝑈𝑃𝑂𝑁𝑖 + 𝛽3𝑀𝐴𝑇𝑈𝑅𝐼𝑇𝑌𝑖 +
𝛽4𝐹𝐼𝑅𝑆𝑇_𝐷𝑖 + 𝛽5𝑆𝐼𝑍𝐸𝑖 + 𝛽6𝐿𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐺𝐸𝑖 +
𝛽7𝑃𝑅𝑂𝐹𝐼𝑇𝐴𝐵𝐼𝐿𝐼𝑇𝑌𝑖 + 𝛽8𝐺𝑅𝑂𝑊𝑇𝐻𝑖 + 𝛽9𝐸𝑆𝐺𝑖 +
𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑦_𝐹𝐸 + 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟_𝐹𝐸 + 𝜀𝑖 , (14)
where the dependent variable 𝐶𝐴𝑅𝑖 is the cumulative abnormal return for an event
window. For robustness, different event windows for CARs are tested. The explanatory
variables are different green bond and issuer characteristics. Green bond characteristics
include 𝐴𝑀𝑇𝐼𝑆𝑆𝑈𝐸𝐷, 𝐶𝑂𝑈𝑃𝑂𝑁, 𝑀𝐴𝑇𝑈𝑅𝐼𝑇𝑌, and 𝐹𝐼𝑅𝑆𝑇_𝐷, out of which the last is a
dummy variable, also known as a qualitative variable. Issuer characteristics include 𝑆𝐼𝑍𝐸,
𝐿𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑅𝐴𝐺𝐸, 𝑃𝑅𝑂𝐹𝐼𝑇𝐴𝐵𝐼𝐿𝐼𝑇𝑌, 𝐺𝑅𝑂𝑊𝑇𝐻, and 𝐸𝑆𝐺. 𝛽0, 𝛽1, … , 𝛽9 are the coefficient
estimates which quantify the effect of each explanatory variable. 𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑦_𝐹𝐸 and
𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟_𝐹𝐸 are country and year fixed effect dummy variables (Brooks 2014, 529).
The fixed effects are added to account for the leftover variation that is due year and
country-specific factors. Similar approach was used by, for example, Lebelle et al. (2020).
43
𝜀𝑖 is an error term that sweeps up any influences on the CARs that are not captured by the
explanatory variables. (Brooks 2014, 135, 157, 684.)
Table 6 Explanatory variables
Green bond characteristics
AMTISSUED The natural logarithm of the green bond amount issued in USD
million.
COUPON The coupon rate of the green bond.
MATURITY The natural logarithm of the maturity of the green bond in years.
FIRST_D Dummy variable equal to 1 if the green bond is the first for the
issuer and 0 if the green bond is subsequent.
Issuer characteristics
SIZE The natural logarithm of the issuer’s total assets the fiscal year prior
to the issuance announcement in USD million.
LEVERAGE The ratio between issuer’s total liabilities and total assets the fiscal
year prior the issuance announcement.
PROFITABILITY Measured by Return on Assets (ROA) the fiscal year prior to the
issuance announcement. ROA is calculated as the income after
taxes for the fiscal period divided by the average total assets at the
beginning and at the end of the year.
GROWTH Measured by Tobin’s Q the fiscal year prior to the issuance
announcement. Tobin’s Q is calculated by summing up the market
value of equity and the book value of debt and dividing it by the
book value of assets.
ESG The Refinitiv® ESG Score.
Table 6 provides detailed descriptions of the explanatory variables. Logarithmic
transformation is done to the AMTISSUED, MATURITY and SIZE variables, as it
reduces heteroscedasticity and makes skewed distribution closer to a normal distribution
(Brooks 2014, 34). The measure used as a proxy for the profitability of the issuer in the
PROFITABILITY variable is the return on assets (ROA). Similarly to Baulkaran (2019),
Tobin’s Q is used as a proxy for the issuer's growth opportunities in the GROWTH
variable. The currency for the regression analysis is USD, meaning that the CARs used
44
as the dependent variable are from an event study conducted in USD.22 Thus, all the
explanatory variables are calculated using USD to make the values more uniform and
comparable.
Table 7 Descriptive statistics for regression variables
This table presents descriptive statistics for the regression variables. Panel A displays the descriptive
statistics for the group with non-financial corporates. Panel B displays the descriptive statistics for the group
with financial corporates.
Mean Median Stdev Kurtosis Skewness Min Max
Panel A: Non-Financials (N = 332)
AMTISSUED 5.249 5.365 1.236 –0.950 –0.291 1.920 7.824
COUPON 1.941 1.875 1.444 0.113 0.614 0.000 7.637
MATURITY 2.016 1.900 0.690 10.689 1.610 0.700 6.900
FIRST_D 0.449 0.000 0.498 –1.969 0.207 0.000 1.000
SIZE 9.801 9.597 1.288 0.460 0.684 6.419 13.470
LEVERAGE 0.613 0.606 0.141 –0.510 0.014 0.258 0.948
PROFITABILITY 0.043 0.033 0.040 2.724 0.896 –0.122 0.205
GROWTH 1.080 0.928 0.657 14.812 3.354 0.324 5.816
ESG 60.755 64.905 20.313 –0.318 –0.693 5.861 93.934
Panel B: Financials (N = 228)
AMTISSUED 5.288 6.215 1.904 6.460 –1.899 –5.139 8.329
COUPON 1.560 0.953 1.692 3.673 1.759 0.000 8.850
MATURITY 1.749 1.700 0.540 4.685 0.487 –0.300 3.500
FIRST_D 0.399 0.000 0.491 –1.844 0.415 0.000 1.000
SIZE 12.752 12.929 1.630 –0.969 –0.405 8.543 15.447
LEVERAGE 0.906 0.932 0.076 6.471 –2.573 0.558 0.967
PROFITABILITY 0.009 0.006 0.010 12.478 2.843 -0.007 0.074
GROWTH 0.289 0.194 0.249 9.070 2.486 0.054 1.836
ESG 71.194 74.982 17.506 0.085 –0.910 20.825 94.811
Table 7 displays the descriptive statistics for the regression variables. The statistics are
presented for both non-financial and financial sector groups. The green bond
characteristics are similar to both groups, except for the MATURITY variable. The
maturity of green bonds issued by non-financial corporates tends to be higher than those
by financial corporates. A higher positive kurtosis and skewness of some variables
indicates that the distributions have a long and ‘fat’ right tails (Brooks 2014, 66–67).
From the issuer characteristics, the LEVERAGE variable has a notable difference
between the two groups. The financial sector corporates are more leveraged than the non-
22 The descriptive statistics for the used CARs are displayed in appendices.
45
financial corporates. Higher leverage is common for financial corporates as they typically
borrow capital from those with a surplus to invest and lend to those in need (Ingves 2014).
Thus, they also typically issue green bonds to lend capital for other corporates’ green
projects (Lebelle et al. 2020; Wang et al. 2020; Fatica et al. 2021). Other noteworthy
differences between the groups are in GROWTH and ESG variables. The non-financial
corporates have higher Tobin’s Q values indicating bigger growth opportunities. The ESG
scores are lower for the non-financial sector, suggesting that ESG creditors see them as
less sustainable, although the scores are still relatively high.
Table 8 presents correlation matrices for both financial and non-financial sector
regression groups. The correlation matrix serves as one way of estimating
multicollinearity in the regression model. An assumption in the OLS estimation is that
the explanatory variables are not correlated with one another. If a correlation is present,
removing a correlated variable from the regression would cause the coefficients of the
other variables to change. However, in practice, the correlation between variables will be
non-zero, and a problem occurs only when there is a high correlation. Perfect
multicollinearity would arise when two or more variables have an exact relationship
meaning that one regressor is a perfect linear function of the other regressor(s). In this
case, computing the OLS estimates would be impossible. (Brooks 2014, 217–218; Stock
& Watson 2020, 226.) However, this is not the case in this study.
Although perfect multicollinearity is not present, some of the variables have a higher
correlation with each other. For the non-financial group, AMTISSUED and SIZE have a
correlation of 0.55. It can be explained by the fact that larger corporates tend to issue
more sizeable green bonds as they might have bigger-scale green projects that need debt
financing. The financial group has a few strong correlations between the issuer
characteristics. The highest correlation is between PROFITABILITY and LEVERAGE,
which suggests that when financial corporates’ leverage increases, the profitability
decreases and vice versa. A strong correlation is also detected between GROWTH,
LEVERAGE and PROFITABILITY, indicating that when the leverage ratio increase,
growth opportunities decrease, whereas an increase in profitability increases growth
opportunities. Also, the SIZE variable is positively correlated with LEVERAGE,
meaning that the bigger the bank the higher the leverage ratio, and negatively correlated
with PROFITABILITY and GROWTH. To further address the multicollinearity, the
variance inflation factors (VIFs) are discussed in the result section.
46
Table 8 Correlation matrices
This table presents correlation matrices for the explanatory variables of the two regression groups. Panel A displays a correlation matrix for the variables used in regressions for
non-financial corporates. Panel B displays a correlation matrix for the variables used in regressions for financial corporates.
Panel A: Non-Financials
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
(1) AMTISSUED 1
(2) COUPON 0.077 1
(3) MATURITY 0.423*** 0.059 1
(4) FIRST_D 0.009 –0.105* –0.036 1
(5) SIZE 0.547*** –0.124** 0.325*** –0.044 1
(6) LEVERAGE 0.269*** 0.023 0.089 –0.003 0.341*** 1
(7) PROFITABILITY –0.124** –0.078 –0.095* –0.079 –0.092* –0.314*** 1
(8) GROWTH 0.051 –0.095* –0.001 0.057 –0.044 –0.318*** 0.391*** 1
(9) ESG 0.365*** –0.155*** 0.205*** –0.061 0.183*** –0.129** 0.205*** 0.114** 1
Panel B: Financials
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
(1) AMTISSUED 1
(2) COUPON 0.016 1
(3) MATURITY 0.057 –0.063 1
(4) FIRST_D 0.166** 0.039 –0.009 1
(5) SIZE 0.169** –0.229*** –0.032 –0.250*** 1
(6) LEVERAGE –0.016 –0.043 –0.036 –0.087 0.473*** 1
(7) PROFITABILITY –0.022 0.191*** –0.051 0.081 –0.517*** –0.853*** 1
(8) GROWTH 0.053 0.055 0.001 0.117*** –0.494*** –0.782*** 0.727*** 1
(9) ESG –0.080 –0.326*** 0.296*** –0.279*** 0.239*** –0.098 –0.065 0.035 1
Significance levels: * p < 10% ** p < 5% *** p < 1%
47
5 Results and discussion
5.1 Event study
The event study was conducted using two approaches. The first approach was calculating
market model abnormal returns in local currencies, and the second was the same with the
difference of converting all the values into USD. Figure 4 illustrates the differences
between average abnormal returns (AARs) and cumulative average abnormal returns
(CAARs) over the 41-day event window [–20, +20] using local currency and USD
approaches. Using USD as a common currency to calculate the abnormal returns in a
multi-country setting appears to make the results slightly inflated. Overall, the AARs
follow the same pattern between both approaches with only slight differences. The
inflated effect of the common currency is illustrated better by the CAARs. CAARs
calculated with values converted to the USD are more extreme than the ones calculated
using local currencies. However, overall, the results between the two approaches have
only minor differences and lead to similar inferences. Therefore, this chapter presents the
rest of the event study results from the local currency approach.23
In addition to reflecting differences in the use of local and common currency in the event
study, Figure 4 illustrates the initial results for the main objective of the event study, the
equity market reaction to the green bond issuance announcement. AAR is negative on the
announcement date 0. However, AAR spikes nine days before the event and stays positive
for a few days after, which might indicate some information leakage before the event.
The reason can be that investors in the equity market have received information about
green bond issuance from other communication channels and thus anticipated the event
before the official announcement. On the other hand, the reason may also relate to the
accuracy of the first announcement date available in the Refinitiv Eikon database.
Regardless, the equity market reaction appears to be positive. The positive reaction is
visualized better with the CAARs over the event window [–20, +20], which stays positive
from seven days prior to five days after the event. However, it is important to point out
that the positive impact is very short-term, and the cause for the positive CAARs around
the event is the positive spike in AARs prior to the announcement.
23 The overall results from the USD approach are presented in the appendices.
48
Figure 4 Abnormal returns using local currency vs. USD
Table 9 provides a more in-depth representation of the daily abnormal returns over the
11-day baseline window [–5, +5] for the total green bond sample. Five days before the
green bond issuance announcement, the AAR is significant and positive, as indicated in
the graphs above, with a value of 0.121%. The parametric t-test for the result is significant
at a 10% significance level, and the non-parametric generalized sign test is significant at
a 5% level. The sign test practically tests whether the number of positive ARs departs
from the expected amount of positive values estimated from the estimation period. Hence,
the 'Pos:Neg' column shows that the number of positive values on the day –5 is greater
than for the other days. Otherwise, the values for daily AARs are small and statistically
insignificant, although, on the event date, the AAR is negative with a value of –0.075%.
The standard deviations are similar for all the days and do not suggest significantly
different reactions in the daily ARs.
49
Table 9 Daily abnormal returns
This table presents the daily abnormal returns (ARs) and their means (AARs), medians, standard deviations,
minimums, and maximums for the 11-day baseline event window [–5,+5] for the total green bond sample
(N=564). The values are displayed in percentages. Additionally, the number of positive and negative
abnormal returns for each day is reported in a separate column. The last two columns present the statistical
tests for the daily abnormal returns. The t-test is the cross-sectional parametric test, and the sign test is the
non-parametric generalized sign test.
Day AAR Median Stdev Min Max Pos:Neg t-test Sign test
–5 0.121 0.059 1.559 –10.065 8.820 302:262 1.850* 2.049**
–4 –0.091 –0.105 1.374 –5.378 6.936 265:299 –1.568 –1.067
–3 0.053 –0.070 1.445 –5.344 8.679 270:294 0.868 –0.646
–2 0.006 0.008 1.332 –7.059 6.764 286:278 0.107 0.702
–1 –0.017 0.048 1.458 –8.461 5.903 287:277 –0.278 0.786
0 –0.075 –0.054 1.438 –6.774 7.179 270:294 –1.240 –0.646
+1 0.008 0.047 1.381 –5.641 9.400 294:270 0.136 1.375
+2 0.040 0.047 1.501 –7.255 13.537 293:271 0.628 1.291
+3 –0.061 –0.029 1.500 –12.260 7.695 275:289 –0.973 –0.225
+4 0.079 0.013 1.418 –5.331 10.034 286:278 1.327 0.702
+5 –0.083 –0.062 1.379 –7.602 6.520 268:296 –1.427 –0.815
Significance levels: * p < 10% ** p < 5% *** p < 1%
Table 10 aggregates the AARs in the form of CAARs for four event windows, a pre-event
window, and a post-event window. The results are not statistically significant, which is
expected as only one result is significant in Table 9. Despite the insignificance, they
provide some additional indication of the equity market reaction over different intervals.
For example, the potential information leakage before the green bond issuance
announcement is supported by and detectable from the 10-day pre-event window [–10, –
1]. The pre-event window CAAR is positive with a value of 0.224%. The CAARs of other
windows are considerably smaller and range from both sides to zero. However, only one
of the actual event windows has a positive CAAR. It is a 21-day window [-10, +10],
which also benefits from the possible information leakage. The baseline event window [–
5, +5] and the shortest event window [–1, +1] both have negative CAARs indicating a
negative equity market reaction near the observed green bond issuance announcement
date.
50
Table 10 Cumulative average abnormal returns
This table presents the cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) for different windows for the total
green bond sample (N=564). Medians, standard deviations, minimums, and maximums for the cumulative
abnormal returns (CARs) are also presented. The values are displayed in percentages. [–10, –1] is the 10-
day pre-event window and [+10, +20] is the 11-day post-event window. The other windows are the actual
event windows. Additionally, the number of positive and negative CARs is displayed. The last two columns
present the statistical tests for the cumulative abnormal returns in each event window. The T-test is the
cross-sectional parametric test, and the sign test is the non-parametric generalized sign test.
Window CAAR Median Stdev Min Max Pos:Neg t-test Sign test
[–10, –1] 0.224 0.277 4.692 –22.370 25.704 292:272 1.136 1.207
[–20, +20] –0.061 0.018 9.568 –52.049 33.242 282:282 –0.153 0.365
[–10, +10] 0.021 0.153 6.973 –49.601 37.901 285:279 0.073 0.617
[–5, +5] –0.020 0.119 4.698 –22.275 27.474 292:272 –0.101 1.207
[–1, +1] –0.084 –0.082 2.328 –12.672 13.020 272:292 –0.860 –0.478
[+10, +20] 0.021 –0.142 4.406 –23.085 26.021 270:294 0.112 –0.646
Significance levels: * p < 10% ** p < 5% *** p < 1%
Overall, the findings from the event study using the total green bond sample are not
unambiguous. However, there is a fairly strong indication that the shares of the issuers
experience positive abnormal returns before the green bond issuance announcement date.
This suggests that the equity market reacts positively to the issue of the green bond, but
there may be some kind of anticipation or information leakage regarding the
announcement. Also, as mentioned earlier, the date available in Refinitiv Eikon may be
inaccurate. Baulkaran (2019) also reports a negative AAR on the event date, but all the
CAARs for observed event windows are positive. Thus, the results resemble the findings
of this study in some ways by suggesting information leakage before the announcement.
The results are compared between different subsamples and regions to utilize the full
potential of the global dataset and make the event study analysis more comprehensive.
First, Table 11 compares the event study results by splitting the total sample in three ways.
Panel A displays the results for financial and non-financial sector corporates. Similarly to
Tang and Zhang (2020) and Lebelle et al. (2020), the comparison is done due to the
diverging natures in the use of proceeds. For the most part, the results are contradictory
and suggest a more positive and significant reaction to the green bond issuance
announcement for non-financial corporates. It is seen especially over the shortest event
window [–1, +1], where financial corporates experience a negative abnormal return of –
0.295% at a 10% significance level measured with the t-test. However, a positive reaction,
although much more significant for the non-financials, is detectable for both groups in
51
the pre-event window indicating information leakage. The results resemble the findings
by Tang and Zhang (2020), suggesting a stronger positive reaction for non-financial
corporates.
Table 11 Comparison between subsamples
This table presents the cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) for different subsamples over
different windows. The subsamples are formed by splitting the total sample based on different
characteristics. Panel A displays the CAARs for financial and non-financial sectors. The split is based on
The Refinitiv® Business Classification (TRBC) Economic Sectors. Panel B displays the CAARs for first-
time and subsequent green bond issuances. Panel C displays CAARs for green bonds issued in advanced
economies and for emerging markets & developing economies. The split is based on International Monetary
Fund’s (IMF) country classification (IMF 2022b). The CAAR values are displayed in percentages. The T-
test is the cross-sectional parametric test, and the sign test is the non-parametric generalized sign test.
Panel A: Financial Sector vs. Other Sectors
Financial Sector (N = 230)
Non-Financial Sectors (N = 334)
CAAR t-test Sign test CAAR t-test Sign test
[–10, –1] 0.066 0.229 –0.231 0.333 1.246 1.760*
[–20, +20] 0.372 0.638 1.088 –0.360 –0.656 –0.429
[–10, +10] 0.214 0.503 0.956 –0.111 –0.277 0.009
[–5, +5] –0.082 –0.255 –0.231 0.023 0.092 1.760*
[–1, +1] –0.295 –1.810* –1.155 0.061 0.505 0.337
[+10, +20] –0.062 –0.218 –1.287 0.077 0.315 0.228
Panel B: First-time vs. Subsequent
First-time (N = 242)
Subsequent (N = 322)
CAAR t-test Sign test CAAR t-test Sign test
[–10, –1] 0.206 0.663 1.224 0.238 0.932 0.537
[–20, +20] –0.035 –0.058 –0.062 –0.081 –0.151 0.537
[–10, +10] 0.229 0.521 0.324 –0.135 –0.342 0.537
[–5, +5] 0.267 0.842 1.995** –0.235 –0.937 –0.132
[–1, +1] –0.227 –1.605 –0.962 0.023 0.169 0.202
[+10, +20] 0.014 0.051 –0.448 0.026 0.103 –0.467
Panel C: Advanced Economies vs. Emerging & Developing Markets
Advanced Economies (N = 502)
Emerging & Developing (N = 62)
CAAR t-test Sign test CAAR t-test Sign test
[–10, –1] 0.217 1.050 1.453 0.286 0.433 –0.496
[–20, +20] –0.218 –0.514 –0.332 1.206 0.958 2.050**
[–10, +10] –0.098 –0.321 0.293 0.990 1.010 1.031
[–5, +5] –0.161 –0.776 0.293 1.119 1.763* 2.813***
[–1, +1] –0.103 –1.000 –0.243 0.071 0.232 –0.751
[+10, +20] 0.038 0.196 –0.511 –0.123 –0.210 –0.496
Significance levels: * p < 10% ** p < 5% *** p < 1%
52
Panel B in Table 11 compares the results between first-time and subsequent green bond
issuances. A similar comparison was done by Tang and Zhang (2020), Lebelle et al.
(2020) and Flammer (2021). A notable difference is seen over the baseline event window
[–5, +5], where the CAAR is positive and significant for the first-time issuances with a
value of 0.267% at a 5% significance level measured with the sign test. For the subsequent
issuances, the result is insignificant but negative with a value of –0.235%. The results
resemble the studies by Tang and Zhang (2020) and Flammer (2021), suggesting a more
positive reaction for first-time issuances. It can be expected as the information of green
bonds is entering the market for the first time in the first-time issuance. However, the
result is the opposite when viewing the window [-1, +1], which may be due to the early
reaction. Also, when looking at the pre-event window, the reaction is positive for both
groups and even slightly higher for the subsequent issuances. It, again, supports the
information leakage finding.
Similarly to Lebelle et al. (2020), Panel C in Table 11 compares the results between
advanced economies and emerging & developing markets. Again, both of the groups
experience positive CAARs over the pre-event window. However, the event windows
reveal a substantial difference. Advanced economies experience negative CAARs over
all the event windows, whereas emerging & developing markets have much higher and
positive CAARs. In the baseline window [–5, +5], the positive CAAR of 1.119% is also
statistically significant at a 10% level measured with the t-test and significant at a 1%
level measured with the sign test. Although the figures reported by Lebelle et al. (2020)
are negative for both groups, the results are consistent in that the negative reaction was
less negative for emerging & developing markets. However, it is also worth noting that
the advanced economy group contains 502 observations, while the development &
emerging markets group contains only 62. As the number of observations increases in the
event study, abnormal returns tend to approach zero, while in smaller samples possible
outliers may cause some bias in the result.
To the best of my knowledge, no previous studies have reported regional differences in
the equity market reaction to the green bond issuance announcement. Thus, Table 12
presents event study results for the three leading regions involved in the green bond
markets. These are Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America. Since the diverging nature
of financial corporates' use of proceeds, on top of providing the total results, the results
are also reported excluding the financial sector to add robustness. Panel A displays the
53
results of the equity market reaction to European green bond issuance announcements.
The results are overall insignificant and negative. Even the earlier identified positive
reaction over the pre-event window is practically non-existent. Thus in Europe, the equity
market seems to react negatively to the green bond issuance announcement. One reason
could be investor scepticism considering the validity of green bonds in Europe. Investors
may not be confident that the issuers would use the proceeds as they should. It may be
due, for example, to the voluntary nature of different standards. On the other hand, Europe
can already be seen as a forerunner of the green transition24 and as a result, investors may
not have a particular incentive to find new, sustainable investments from Europe.
The results of North America presented in Panel C are generally in line with the results
observed from Europe. The results are not statistically significant and are negative for all
event windows. However, there is a great difference between pre-event and post-event
windows, with both showing positive reactions. The CAAR over the pre-event window
could indicate that investors in North America do react positively to the green bond
issuance announcement but with anticipation. Although the CAARs are also positive over
the post-event window, the negative sign test value proposes that there are more negative
than positive CARs. Thus, the positive mean is likely caused by some exceptionally
positive abnormal returns after the issuance. Overall in North America, the equity market
reaction is positive over days before and negative around the event, although statistically
insignificant.
A significant difference is distinguished in the equity market reaction in Asia-Pacific,
reported in Panel B. For Asia-Pacific, the CAAR is positive over all the windows except
for the shortest event window for the total sample. The baseline window [–5, +5] indicates
a positive CAAR of 0.484% at a 10% significance level measured with the sign test.
Furthermore, when excluding the financial corporates, the CAAR jumps to 1.025% at a
5% significance level measured with the t-test and a 10% level measured with the sign
test. Also, the CAAR of 1.433% over the event window [–10, +10] for the sample
excluding financials is significant at a 10% level measured with the t-test. The results
from Asia-Pacific are mostly led by observations from China. It has recently done the
most substantial updates to the national green bond standards, and it seems that the
investors have more confidence in the Chinese green bond issuer. China is also part of
24 See e.g. Forbes (2021).
54
the emerging markets, which partly explains the positive CAAR observations in the
emerging & developing markets in Table 11. Overall, the results indicate a strong positive
equity market reaction to green bond issuance announcements in Asia-Pacific. Thus, the
result is consistent with the findings of Wang et al. (2020), suggesting a positive reaction
in China.
Table 12 Comparison between regions
This table presents the cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) for different regions over different
windows. The results are shown for the total samples and samples excluding the financial sector. Panel A
displays the CAARs for Europe, Panel B for Asia-Pacific, and Panel C for North America. The CAAR
values are displayed in percentages. The t-test is the cross-sectional parametric test, and the sign test is the
non-parametric generalized sign test.
Panel A: Europe
Total (N = 289) Excluding Financial Sector (N = 153)
CAAR t-test Sign test CAAR t-test Sign test
[–10, –1] 0.047 0.177 0.458 –0.003 –0.008 0.796
[–20, +20] –0.406 –0.699 –0.013 –1.074 –1.287 –0.175
[–10, +10] –0.307 –0.722 0.340 –0.885 –1.459 0.149
[–5, +5] –0.215 –0.775 –0.601 –0.415 –1.188 0.472
[–1, +1] –0.049 –0.361 –0.484 0.080 0.512 0.472
[+10, +20] –0.205 –0.766 0.105 –0.174 –0.453 0.957
Panel B: Asia-Pacific
Total (N = 162) Excluding Financial Sector (N = 96)
CAAR t-test Sign test CAAR t-test Sign test
[–10, –1] 0.406 1.002 0.167 0.893 1.502 0.865
[–20, +20] 0.845 1.149 1.267 1.503 1.372 0.660
[–10, +10] 0.678 1.254 0.167 1.433 1.799* 0.252
[–5, +5] 0.484 1.427 1.739* 1.025 2.082** 1.886*
[–1, +1] –0.115 –0.609 –0.462 0.198 0.799 0.048
[+10, +20] 0.302 0.903 –0.777 0.367 0.728 –0.565
Panel C: North America
Total (N = 101) Excluding Financial Sector (N = 84)
CAAR t-test Sign test CAAR t-test Sign test
[–10, –1] 0.444 1.017 1.621 0.230 0.472 1.393
[–20, +20] –0.528 –0.577 –0.569 –1.159 –1.265 –1.226
[–10, +10] –0.139 –0.213 0.426 –0.440 –0.657 –0.353
[–5, +5] –0.368 –0.691 1.223 –0.358 –0.727 0.738
[–1, +1] –0.158 –0.673 0.227 –0.157 –0.599 –0.135
[+10, +20] 0.290 0.738 –0.768 0.192 0.530 –0.353
Significance levels: * p < 10% ** p < 5% *** p < 1%
55
5.2 Regression analysis
The regression model was tested with three different event windows for the non-financial
and financial groups to highlight possible links between the cumulative abnormal returns
(CARs) caused by the green bond issuance announcement and several green bond and
issuer characteristics. Additionally, the regression model was tested for the three leading
regions in the green bond markets to highlight possible regional differences. White’s test
was used to test the regressions for heteroscedasticity (White 1980). Heteroscedasticity
is present if the variance of the errors is not constant throughout the sample. If this was
the case, any inferences made could be misleading. (Brooks 2014, 181, 185.) For the most
part, White’s test did not suggest an alarming level of heteroscedasticity. However, for a
few of the regressions, some heteroscedasticity was detected. The White’s test results are
reported separately in each result table. Multicollinearity was already addressed with the
correlation matrices. However, to further analyse the multicollinearity of the regression
models, the variance inflation factors (VIFs) of the independent variables were
interpreted. Overall, the VIFs did not show signs of harmful multicollinearity25.
The regression results for the non-financial group are presented in Table 13. Regression
1 includes all the explanatory variables, whereas Regressions 2 and 3 are conducted to
capture the effect of the green bond (2) and issuer (3) characteristics on the CARs. For
the most part, the results are insignificant. The GROWTH variable has some significance
when using CARs for the event window [–10, +10] as the dependent variable. However,
the reported White’s tests indicate the presence of heteroscedasticity, and therefore, these
results may be misleading. Also, the AMTISSUED, SIZE and LEVERAGE show some
significance in Regression 1. However, when the bond and issuer characteristics are
regressed separately, the significance of the results diminishes. Also, the R-squared (𝑅2),
which measures how well the explanatory variables explain the variance of CARs, is very
low for all the tested regressions (Stock & Watson 2020, 223). Thus, the results in Table
13 suggest that there are no significant links between the CARs and the characteristics of
green bond and issuers in the non-financial group.
25 A general rule of thumb is that a VIF over 10 is a sign of harmful multicollinearity (CFI 2022).
56
Table 13 Regression results for non-financial group
This table presents the regression results for non-financial sector observations. Regression 1 includes all the variables, Regression 2 includes only green bond characteristics,
and Regression 3 only issuer characteristics. T-statistics are in parentheses. χ² is the chi-squared test statistic from White's heteroscedasticity test.
Regression 1 Regression 2 Regression 3
[–10, +10] [–5, +5] [–1, +1] [–10, +10] [–5, +5] [–1, +1] [–10, +10] [–5, +5] [–1, +1]
Intercept –0.113 –0.165 –0.010 –0.195 –0.095 0.026 –0.150 –0.285 –0.045
(–0.243) (–0.573) (–0.070) (–0.435) (–0.342) (0.194) (–0.335) (–1.024) (–0.328)
AMTISSUED –0.004 –0.006* –0.002* –0.000 –0.002 –0.001
(–0.797) (–1.927) (–1.673) (–0.043) (–0.687) (–1.261)
COUPON –0.002 0.001 0.000 –0.003 0.000 –0.000
(–0.583) (0.330) (–0.355) (–0.882) (–0.040) (–0.470)
MATURITY 0.000 –0.001 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.001
(–0.007) (–0.139) (0.401) (0.270) (0.134) (0.594)
FIRST_D 0.005 0.003 –0.004 0.003 0.002 –0.004
–0.639 (0.654) (–1.435) (0.375) (0.457) (–1.493)
SIZE 0.007* 0.003 0.000 0.006 0.001 –0.000
(1.661) (1.331) (0.245) (1.573) (0.356) (–0.438)
LEVERAGE –0.008 0.038* 0.010 –0.013 0.033 0.007
(–0.219) (1.788) (0.978) (–0.367) (1.547) (0.702)
PROFITABILITY –0.019 –0.052 –0.040 –0.005 –0.029 –0.024
(–0.162) (–0.711) (–1.106) (–0.043) (–0.404) (–0.679)
GROWTH –0.015** –0.004 –0.001 –0.015** –0.005 –0.002
(–2.102) (–0.842) (–0.567) (–2.214) (–1.185) (–0.997)
ESG 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
–0.293 (1.172) (1.112) (0.024) (0.429) (0.691)
Observations 332 332 332 332 332 332 332 332 332
𝑅2 0.032 0.040 0.030 0.004 0.003 0.014 0.027 0.026 0.013
χ² (White’s test) 18.616* 11.386 13.300 6.068 5.946 6.619 14.792** 6.224 11.333
Country FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Significance levels: * p < 10% ** p < 5% *** p < 1%
57
Table 14 presents the regression results for the financial corporate group. Similarly to the
non-financial group, for the most part, the results are insignificant. However, using the
event windows [–10, +10] and [–1, +1] as the dependent variables, the SIZE variable
shows significance at a 10% level in Regressions 1 and 3. The positive coefficients for
the firm size, measured by the issuer’s total assets, indicate that the positive equity market
reaction is stronger for the green bond issuance announcements when the financial
corporates are larger. Another variable with statistical significance is ESG, measured by
ESG scores. The coefficient is very close to zero, suggesting that the ESG scores have no
linkage to the CARs whatsoever. Again, however, the R-squared (𝑅2) is very low for all
the tested regressions. It indicates that the chosen characteristics have a low explanatory
power over the abnormal returns experienced from the green bond issuance
announcements and that the effect size is very small.
Overall, there is a notable lack of statistical significance in Tables 13 and 14. Thus, it
seems that for the non-financial and financial groups, the CARs around the green bond
issuance announcement have no clear dependency on the chosen characteristics. The
finding is somewhat contrary to the previous research. For example, Lebelle et al. (2020)
results suggest that issuers with more growth opportunities have reduced negative
reactions to green bond issuance. Also, Baulkaran (2019) found growth opportunities to
have a positive and statistically significant linkage between the CARs. In addition,
Although, from the bond characteristics, a higher coupon was found to have a negative
linkage between the abnormal returns. In this study, growth opportunities seemed to have
some significance for the non-financial group, but with the presence of heteroscedasticity,
the results cannot be interpreted with confidence.
58
Table 14 Regression results for financial group
This table presents the regression results for financial sector observations. Regression 1 includes all the variables, Regression 2 includes only green bond characteristics, and
Regression 3 only issuer characteristics. T-statistics are in parentheses. χ² is the chi-squared test statistic from White's heteroscedasticity test.
Regression 1 Regression 2 Regression 3
[–10, +10] [–5, +5] [–1, +1] [–10, +10] [–5, +5] [–1, +1] [–10, +10] [–5, +5] [–1, +1]
Intercept –1.204** –0.504 –0.062 –0.441 –0.162 0.051 –0.986* –0.404 –0.125
(–2.072) (–1.155) (–0.270) (–0.987) (–0.485) (0.291) (1.868) (–1.015) (–0.598)
AMTISSUED 0.000 0.002 –0.000 0.001 0.002 –0.000
(0.114) (0.883) (–0.266) (0.275) (1.026) (–0.111)
COUPON 0.002 –0.000 –0.001 0.001 –0.001 –0.001
(0.798) (–0.132) (–0.894) (0.336) (–0.616) (–1.347)
MATURITY –0.008 –0.005 –0.001 –0.009 –0.005 –0.000
(–0.933) (–0.818) (–0.147) (–1.036) (–0.809) (–0.078)
FIRST_D 0.002 0.007 0.001 0.003 0.007 –0.000
(0.173) (0.989) (0.369) (0.297) (1.090) (–0.115)
SIZE 0.007* 0.004 0.002 0.006* 0.004 0.003*
(1.780) (1.387) (1.642) (1.751) (1.577) (1.873)
LEVERAGE –0.054 –0.110 –0.037 –0.036 –0.120 –0.044
(–0.431) (–1.164) (0.748) (–0.289) (–1.294) (–0.894)
PROFITABILITY –0.414 –0.366 0.304 –0.274 –0.485 0.250
(–0.448) (–0.528) (0.828) (–0.306) (–0.719) (0.703)
GROWTH –0.002 –0.018 –0.016 –0.000 –0.013 –0.016
(0.061) (–0.831) (–1.394) (–0.009) (–0.620) (–1.409)
ESG –0.000** –0.000 –0.000 –0.001** –0.000* –0.000
(–2.294) (–1.402) (–0.212) (–2.105) (–1.808) (–0.627)
Observations 228 228 228 228 228 228 228 228 228
𝑅2 0.04 0.041 0.036 0.008 0.020 0.009 0.033 0.029 0.032
χ² (White’s test) 9.494 7.069 12.356 7.955 6.010 6.127 7.107 4.469 10.367
Country FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Significance levels: * p < 10% ** p < 5% *** p < 1%
59
To analyse the linkage between the CARs and the chosen characteristics further, and to
make the regression analysis more comprehensive, the top three green bond regions are
examined separately. Table 15 presents the regression for the different regions, with both
non-financial and financial groups. The results seem to follow the same trend as the
statistical significance for the green bond and issuer characteristics is very low. The only
significant results at a 10% significance level are for variables FIRST_D and GROWTH
in Europe. First-time issuances have a positive coefficient, and growth opportunities have
a negative coefficient for European financial corporates. However, since White’s test
indicates some heteroscedasticity for the financial group regression, the results need to be
interpreted with caution. However, for the non-financial group in Europe, the growth
opportunities also have a negative coefficient. That is, non-financial corporates with
higher growth opportunities experience lower equity market reactions to green bond
issuance announcements in Europe. The reason can be, for example, that investors may
have scepticism about the sustainability of growth-oriented corporates. In Asia-Pacific
and North America, no significant linkages are detected.
In total, results of 24 different regression models are presented. Overall, if anything, the
regression analysis results suggest that there is a very minimal linkage between the CARs
from the green bond issuance announcement and the bond and issuer characteristics. In
other words, the results suggest that investors are not particularly interested in some
characteristics of a green bond or their issuers over others. Thus, even if investors may
show some interest in listed corporates that issue green bonds, their interest does not seem
to reach other factors which would lead to significantly higher or lower abnormal returns.
For robustness, regressions were also tested without fixed effects and with different
amounts of explanatory variables. However, there were no great differences in the results
that would lead to different inferences. The result applies to all the groups analysed.
60
Table 15 Regional regression results
This table presents regional regression results for non-financial and financial sectors. (1) represents the non-
financial sector regression and (2) the financial sector regression. T-statistics are in parentheses. χ² is the
chi-squared test statistic from White’s heteroscedasticity test.
[–5, +5] Europe Asia-Pacific North America
(1) (2) (1) (2)
(1) (2)
Intercept –0.030 0.523** –0.347** –0.192 0.178 –1.326
(–0.143) (2.134) (–2.488) (–0.927) (1.226) (–0.706)
AMTISSUED –0.003 0.000 –0.009 0.006 –0.014 –0.011
(–0.631) (0.189) (–1.169) (1.297) (–0.851) (–0.507)
COUPON –0.001 –0.004 0.009 –0.001 0.001 0.121
(–0.315) (–1.130) (1.451) (–0.149) (0.222) (1.395)
MATURITY –0.000 0.005 –0.001 –0.008 0.000 –0.123
(–0.008) (0.554) (–0.078) (–0.944) (0.030) (–1.878)
FIRST_D –0.000 0.018* 0.016 0.006 –0.016 0.143
(–0.012) (1.699) (1.430) (0.693) (–1.514) (1.415)
SIZE 0.003 0.007 0.003 –0.001 –0.008 0.114
(0.600) (1.473) (0.427) (–0.409) (–1.139) (1.943)
LEVERAGE –0.002 –0.097 0.037 0.119 0.04 –2.262
(–0.057) (–0.741) (0.899) (0.661) (0.867) (–1.153)
PROFITABILITY –0.118 0.295 –0.190 0.608 0.370 –2.795
(–1.165) (0.349) (–0.975) (0.384) (2.326) (–0.198)
GROWTH –0.027* –0.050* –0.004 0.031 –0.010 –0.124
(–1.718) (–1.659) (–0.473) (0.915) (–1.038) (0.583)
ESG 0.000 –0.000 0.000 –0.000 0.000 0.004
(0.983) (–1.206) (1.243) (–1.415) (0.072) (0.664)
Observations 151 134 96 66 84 17
𝑅2 0.080 0.108 0.211 0.133 0.134 0.620
χ² (White’s test) 12.010 17.420* 21.453** 12.051 7.969 12.643
Country FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Significance levels: * p < 10% ** p < 5% *** p < 1%
61
6 Conclusions
This thesis has examined how the equity market reacts to green bond issuance
announcements of listed corporates. In other words, the aim was to see how investors in
the equity market react to the information about green bond issuances. The scope of the
study was global. The second objective was to investigate possible links between the
abnormal returns caused by the green bonds and different bond and issuer characteristics.
First, the sustainable finance movement was discussed, to give the reader an explicit
background to the topic. Second, the relationship between sustainable finance and the
debt capital markets was considered, and after this, the current sustainable debt
instruments, other than green bonds, were introduced.
The green bonds were discussed extensively by first giving a detailed definition and then
moving on to the global green bond market development. The green bond market has seen
considerable popularity growth in recent years. It has also led to an increasing need for
better principles, standards and regulations. Thus, to give a better understanding of the
current state of green bonds, the most notable green bond principles, standards and
regulations were discussed. Since the green bond is still a new and evolving sustainable
debt instrument, there are also existing challenges and problems, such as the risk of
greenwashing. These were also discussed, by also highlighting the differences in different
parts of the world. Before moving to the empirical study, similar previous studies were
introduced.
In total, 564 corporate green bond observations from 31 countries and ten economic
sectors were selected for the empirical study with specific criteria. The first part of the
study was an event study using a market model approach. It was conducted in two ways
by using local currencies and USD as a common currency. The results suggest that both
approaches lead to similar results with no diverging inferences. The equity market
reaction to the green bond issuance announcement is not entirely unambiguous but tends
to lean more toward the positive reaction. A key finding is that the listed issuers
experience positive CARs over the 10-day pre-event window [–10, –1] when analysing
the total sample. The same result was also seen in the examined subsamples, although not
statistically significant. A stronger and more positive reaction was detected for the non-
financial corporates, first-time issuances, and issuers in emerging & developing markets.
Regionally, the most significant finding was a strong positive reaction for the non-
62
financial corporates in Asia-Pacific. The worst reaction was detected in Europe. The
regression results overall showed little to no linkage between the CARs and the green
bond and issuer characteristics. The result was the same for non-financial and financial
corporates and different regions.
The results of this study had some similarities to the previous studies. However, it also
discovered some new findings and highlighted more regional differences. The overall
findings suggest that the equity market reaction can be either positive or negative
depending on, for example, the issuer's sector and geographical location. In addition, the
different characteristics of bonds and issuers do not appear to have a strong link to
abnormal returns. However, the results are not yet entirely clear, and the need for future
research persists as the amount of available green bond data increases. The rapid changes
in the green bond market regulations are also constantly changing the operational
environment. Possible improvements in the quality of available data will also likely
enhance future research. To date, the data imposes some limitations on the quality, as
there are multiple providers with some inconsistencies. In the future, other sustainable
debt instruments might also serve as an intriguing research topic in finance as they grow
and develop alongside green bonds.
63
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, retrieved 9.12.2022.
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Appendices
Appendix 1 Used market indices
Country Used Market Index
Australia Standard and Poor's / Australian Stock Exchange 300
Austria Austrian Traded Index
Belgium Belgium 20
Brazil Brazil Bovespa
Canada Standard and Poor's / Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index
Chile FTSE Chile
China (Mainland) Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300
Denmark OMX Copenhagen (OMXC)
Finland OMX Helsinki (OMXH)
France France CAC 40
Germany Prime All Share (Xetra)
Greece Athex Composite
Hong Kong Hang Seng
India Nifty 500
Ireland Iseq All Share Index
Italy FTSE MIB Index
Japan TOPIX
Netherlands AEX All Share
New Zealand Standard and Poor's / NZX 50
Norway Oslo Exchange All Share
Poland FTSE Poland
Portugal Portugal PSI All-Share
South Africa FTSE / JSE All Share
Spain IBEX 35
Sweden OMX Stockholm (OMXS)
Switzerland Swiss Market (SMI)
Taiwan Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighed TAIEX
Turkey FTSE Turkey
UAE FTSE United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom FTSE All Share
US Standard and Poor's 500 Composite
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Appendix 2 Results from event study using USD as common currency
Daily abnormal returns
Day AAR Median Stdev Min Max Pos:Neg t-test Sign test
–5 0.119 0.084 1.551 –9.791 8.915 297:267 1.826* 1.643
–4 –0.095 –0.082 1.374 –5.378 6.749 261:303 –1.644 –1.389
–3 0.056 –0.040 1.455 –5.292 9.020 267:297 0.920 –0.884
–2 0.017 0.026 1.341 –6.960 6.764 289:275 0.306 0.969
–1 –0.007 0.060 1.470 –8.343 5.929 289:275 –0.109 0.969
0 –0.069 –0.064 1.468 –6.779 6.729 270:294 –1.123 –0.631
+1 0.022 0.050 1.382 –5.672 9.495 294:270 0.374 1.390
+2 0.045 0.067 1.526 –7.050 13.732 301:263 0.698 1.980**
+3 –0.053 0.002 1.475 –10.264 7.700 282:282 –0.852 0.380
+4 0.070 –0.030 1.409 –5.279 9.318 275:289 1.187 –0.210
+5 –0.084 –0.069 1.388 –7.602 6.933 267:297 –1.439 –0.884
Significance levels: * p < 10% ** p < 5% *** p < 1%
Cumulative average abnormal returns
Window CAAR Median Stdev Min Max Pos:Neg t-test Sign test
[–10, –1] 0.258 0.165 4.679 –22.434 25.993 291:273 1.311 1.138
[–20, +20] 0.043 0.178 9.476 –52.436 34.074 283:281 0.108 0.464
[–10, +10] 0.076 0.189 6.975 –49.714 38.345 290:274 0.259 1.053
[–5, +5] 0.022 0.093 4.661 –22.275 27.636 289:275 0.111 0.969
[–1, +1] –0.054 –0.041 2.337 –12.040 12.755 275:289 –0.553 –0.210
[+10, +20] 0.055 –0.221 4.352 –23.091 25.854 266:298 0.303 –0.968
Significance levels: * p < 10% ** p < 5% *** p < 1%