This is a self-archived – parallel published version of an original article. This version may differ from the original in pagination and typographic details. When using please cite the original. Wiley: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: CITATION: Torppa‐Saarinen, E, Tolvanen, MM, Lahti, SM, Suominen, ALL. Changes and determinants of unmet oral health treatment need. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 2020; 00: 1– 8. which has been published in final form at DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/cdoe.12587 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self- Archived Versions. M anuscript Copy Changes and Determinants of Unmet Oral Health Treatment Need Torppa-Saarinen E. DDS, Institute of Dentistry, University of Eastern Finland. Mob. +358400942694, email: eeva.torppa-saarinen@fimnet.fi Tolvanen M. PhD, Institute of Dentistry, University of Turku, Finland and Center for Life Course Health Research, Institute of Medicine, University of Oulu, Finland Lahti S. PhD, Professor, Department of Community Dentistry, University of Turku, Finland; Turku Clinical Research Centre, Turku University Hospital, Finland Suominen AL. PhD, Professor, Institute of Dentistry, University of Eastern Finland; Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Diseases, Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland; and Public Health Evaluation and Projection Unit, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland All the authors were responsible for conception, design, and interpretation of the data. ET-S was a major contributor in writing the manuscript and AS, SL and MT critically revised the manuscript. AS was also responsible for data acquisition and MT for analysis of the data. All authors gave full approval and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work. Abstract word count: 297 Total word count: 3624 Total number of tables/ figures: 5/0 Number of references: 28 Page 2 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy Abstract Objectives Our aim was to describe the nature and determinants of the changes in unmet treatment need between the years 2000 and 2011 after a major oral health care reform and a wider supply of subsidized care. Methods The study used a longitudinal sample (n=3838) of adults who had participated in both the Health 2000 and 2011 surveys (BRIF 8901). Those reporting self-assessed treatment need without having visited a dentist in the previous 12 months were categorized as having unmet treatment need. Two logistic regression models were applied to determine the effects of predisposing and enabling factors on change in unmet treatment need. Model 1 was conducted among those who reported unmet treatment need in 2000 and evaluated the determinants for improvement. Model 2 was conducted among those who did not have unmet treatment need in 2000 to evaluate the risk factors for having unmet treatment need by 2011. Results Unmet treatment need was reported by 25% of the participants in 2000 and by 20% in 2011. Those with unmet treatment need in 2000 were less likely to report improvement by 2011 if they had poor subjective oral health, basic or intermediate education level, or poor perceived economic situation in 2000. Those who did not have unmet treatment need in 2000 were more likely to have it in 2011 if they were males or from northern Finland, and less likely to if they came from central Finland or were older. Conclusions The wider supply of subsidized oral health care during the study years did not lead to complete elimination of treatment need. The determinants of unmet treatment need, such as low or intermediate education level and perceived economic difficulties, should be used in targeting the services at those with treatment need to achieve better oral health outcomes. Page 3 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy Introduction According to Andersen´s behavioral model of service use, both contextual and individual predisposing, enabling and need factors influence service utilization and its outcome, perceived or professionally evaluated health1. Contextual enabling factors can include, for example, national health policies, financing, and organization of services. Individual predisposing characteristics can include demographic characteristics and education, while the household finances can be considered as an individual enabling factor. According to the model, the concept of need consists of population health, measured by health indices, as well as individual need expressed by perceived need, and service demand satisfied after professional need evaluation. The factors in the Andersen behavioral model have multidimensional effects on service utilization and service outcomes. The model has also been successfully applied to oral health.2-4 One important contextual factor example is the adult oral health care system in Finland, which changed fundamentally in 2002 when the whole adult population gained access to publicly-funded oral health services. Before 2002, only those born in 1956 or after were entitled to these5. It was anticipated that the wider provision of subsidized care would lead to more frequent service use and satisfy the need for oral health services. The target was to improve access to oral health care and reduce inequalities. However, in spite of that reform, we found an increase in individual self- assessed treatment need in our longitudinal national study between 2000 and 20116. In the same study, we also found that regular service use led to good subjective oral health, as also suggested by Andersen’s model7. Services should be targeted to those in need. Failing to do so results in poorer health and wider health inequalities. Inequalities in dental service utilization are considerable and globally consistent8. Inappropriate provision and use of services can also affect self-assessed treatment need 1.Unmet treatment need (usually in the previous 12 months) has been used as an indicator of health care access and inequalities.9,10,11,12 It can be defined as the difference between the healthcare services required to cope with a health problem and the services received. 13. In Finland, waiting lists, cost, and travel distance have previously been the reported reasons for unmet treatment need 14. Dental fear also leads to irregular attendance, which may lead to unmet treatment need15. Unmet treatment need can be viewed as an indicator of the effectiveness and fairness of a health care Page 4 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy system, and so it is useful for a country to monitor changes in unmet treatment need along with identifying its determinants. This study utilized longitudinal survey data from a nationally representative health survey, the Health 2000 and the follow-up to that, the Health 2011.16,17 Our aim was to describe the changes in unmet oral health treatment need and to analyze the determinants of change between the years 2000 and 2011 after a major oral health reform among Finnish adults. Material and methods Study design The Health 2000 Survey, a population-based survey of adults aged ≥ 18, was conducted in 2000, with a follow-up undertaken in 2011 (BRIF 8901). All of those who were invited to participate in 2000 were re-invited in 2011, unless they had at baseline refused to take part in any follow-up. In the 2000 survey, a stratified two-stage cluster sampling design was used. From each of the five university hospital districts used as strata covering the whole country, 16 clusters (health centers) were selected. The 15 largest cities and towns were included, and 65 other health centers were added according to the probability-proportional-to-size method. Systematic random sampling was used to select individuals from these 80 health centers. To match the population sizes in different clusters and to form a nationally representative data set of adults Finns, the participants were weighted using inverse probability weighting, which is a statistical technique for calculating statistics standardized to a population different from in which the data were collected. The Ethical Committee of the Helsinki University Hospital approved both of the studies, and informed consent was obtained from each participant. The self-reported data used in this study in 2000 were collected both by structured interview and self-performed questionnaires during the health examination, and in 2011 by structured interview during the health examination16,17. Of the updated Health 2000 Survey main sample, that is, those aged 30 years or over; (n=7979), 89% (n=7087) participated in the interview. During the Health 2011 follow-up survey, they were 41 years or older, and 4283 of them participated in the interview again in 2011. This is 68% of the updated Health 2011 follow-up sample of this age group (n=6319). The follow-up data in this study included dentate participants who were born in 1970 or after and who had in interviews answered the questions on perceived oral health and service use in both 2000 and 2011 (n=3838); this was 61% of the updated Health 2011 Page 5 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy sample. Analysis of loss showed that those having lost during the follow-up were more often male, less educated, older, resided in Central Finland and had more unmet treatment need than those who were followed up. (Table 1). Measurements Information on perceived oral health and service use both in 2000 and 2011 was used in the analyses. Subjective oral health was determined by the global single-item question: “How do you rate the status of your teeth and oral health?” with the response options: very good, good, average, poor and very poor. For analyses, subjective oral health was dichotomized to good (very good or good) or poor (average, poor or very poor). Self-assessed treatment need was determined by the question: “Do you think you currently need dental treatment?” with response options: yes or no. Last visit to a dentist was determined from the response options: during the past 12 months, 1-2 years ago, 3-5 years ago, over 5 years ago or never. Those reporting self-assessed treatment need but not having visited a dentist during the previous 12 months were categorized as having unmet treatment need. All of the other options (no self-assessed need or visits within 12 months) were considered as not having unmet need. Unmet treatment need was categorized as having unmet treatment need either in 2000, in 2011, in both years, or in neither of these years. Background and other health-related variables used in analyses were based on the Andersen model and determined in both 2000 and 2011 except for self-perceived health only in 2000. They consisted of contextual and individual predisposing factors (area of residence, gender, education), enabling factors (perceived economic situation, self-perceived health, dental fear) and need (pain or discomfort with teeth or dentures). Age was grouped by year of birth: 1956-1970, 1946-1955 and 1945 or before. Age cohorts were determined on differences in access to subsidized oral health care. The younger cohort had been entitled to subsidized care, whereas the two older cohorts gained access to it after the baseline examination in 2000. Education level was categorized as basic, (12 or less years of basic education), intermediate (vocational education), or higher (college or university). The area of residence in Finland was defined as the university hospital districts of Helsinki (southern), Turku (western), Tampere (central), Kuopio (eastern), or Oulu (northern). Perceived household economic situation was determined by the question: “How do you describe the current balance between income and expenditure in your household?” with the response options: more than enough to cover our needs; enough to cover our needs; we have to compromise to some extent; we Page 6 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy have to cut our consumption; we have to compromise a lot but manage; or we have to make major compromises and do not manage on our own. Answers were grouped into three categories: very good (more than enough to cover our needs), good (enough to cover our needs), and poor in the cases of compromising or cutting down in consumption. Self-perceived health was determined by the question: “What is your present state of health?” with the response options: good, fairly good, average, fairly poor, or poor. Answers were grouped into good (good or fairly good) or poor (average, fairly poor or poor). Pain and discomfort was determined by the question: “Have you during the past 12 months had toothache or any other trouble related to your teeth or dentures?” with response options: yes or no. Dental fear was assessed with the question: “Do you think that visiting a dentist is: not at all frightening, somewhat frightening, or very frightening?” Additionally, the follow-up survey in 2011 asked about people´s reasons for not attending a dentist. The response options were: queueing, travelling connections, and service fees. The question was answered by 3644 respondents. Statistical analysis The occurrence of unmet treatment need and changes in it were examined and cross-tabulations were used to evaluate their associations with gender, age group, education, area of residence, general health, pain or discomfort, subjective oral health, perceived economic situation, and dental fear. Two logistic regression models were applied to determine the associations of gender, subjective oral health, pain and discomfort, area of residence, age, education, dental fear, and economic attainment at baseline with improvement or worsening in unmet treatment need. Model 1 was applied to those who reported unmet treatment need in 2000 and evaluated the determinants for improvement (that is not having unmet treatment need) in 2011. Model 2 was applied to those who did not have unmet treatment need in 2000 and evaluated the risk factors for having it by 2011. Analyses were conducted using weighted data. The weights in 2000 were based on age, gender, living area, and mother tongue18and updated for 2011. All analyses were conducted using weighted data, taking cluster design into account. According to Härkänen et al.19, statistical methods based on weighting provide quite accurate results. All analyses used IBM SPSS 25.0. Page 7 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy Results The gender distribution among the age groups was fairly even. Of males, 41% were born in 1956- 1970, 30% were born in 1946-1955, and 29% were born in 1945 or before. Of the females, 42% were born in 1956-1970, 30% were born in 1946-1955, and 28% were born in 1945 or before. Unmet treatment need diminished over the years and was reported by 25% of participants in 2000 and by 20% in 2011 (Table 2). The prevalence of unmet treatment need for females was lower than for males both in 2000 and in 2011. There was a cohort-gradient of unmet treatment need, with a smaller proportion of the oldest cohort reporting it than the younger cohorts in 2000 and 2011. A bigger proportion of the basic and intermediate educated groups reported unmet treatment need than the highest educated group. Unmet treatment need prevalence differed across the country, with eastern and northern Finland having the highest. A higher proportion of those reporting unmet treatment need in both years were male (Table 3). There was no difference in poor subjective oral health in 2000 within the unmet treatment groups. The majority of those who had unmet treatment need in both years, also had poor subjective oral health but reported less pain or discomfort related to teeth or dentures than those with no unmet treatment need. A higher proportion of those with unmet treatment need in both years reported poor perceived economic situation and high dental fear. Unmet treatment need and subjective oral health were associated among both genders. (Table 4). Those with unmet treatment need in both years reported most often also poor subjective oral health in both years. Accordingly, those with no unmet treatment need in both years reported also good subjective oral health in both years. In the logistic regression, (Table 5), Model 1 applied to those who had unmet treatment need in 2000 and compared those who improved (coded as 1) to those who still had unmet treatment need in 2011 (coded as 0). Those with unmet treatment need in 2000 were less likely to report improvement by 2011 if they had poor subjective oral health, basic or intermediate education level, or poor perceived economic situation in 2000. Model 2 was conducted among those who did not have unmet treatment need in 2000 and compared those who developed unmet treatment need by 2011, (that is, worsened, coded as1), to those who did not develop it (coded as 0). Those who did not have unmet treatment need in 2000 were more likely to have it in 2011 if they were male or from northern Finland, and less likely if they came from central Finland or were older. Page 8 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy Reasons given for non-attendance were: queueing (18% of participants) and service fees (7% of participants). Only 1% of respondents mentioned travelling difficulties. Discussion Unmet treatment need for oral health care in the Finnish adult population diminished between 2000 and 2011, but was substantial, being reported by 25% of the population in 2000 and by 20% in 2011. Prevalence of unmet treatment need varied by age cohort, the lowest prevalence was in the older cohorts in both years. Females reported less unmet treatment need than males. Those having no unmet treatment need also reported better subjective oral health. Basic or intermediate education, poor subjective oral health, and perceived economic difficulties at baseline determined the persisting 8% of unmet treatment need. Those with no unmet treatment need in 2000 also were less likely to have it in 2011 if they lived in central Finland or belonged to the older birth cohorts. Conversely, males or those living in northern Finland were more likely to have accrued unmet treatment need in 2011. The determinants of change thus differed depending on the direction of the change. Our findings suggest that the change in contextual enabling factors seemed to be effective in diminishing unmet treatment need during the 11-year period. In terms of contextual change, age limits on subsidized care were removed and access to care universally guaranteed. This contextual change in service provision seems to have provided opportunities for dental care, as need for care due to pain and other dental problems was less prevalent in 2011. Of these contextual factors, equitable access was also found to be important in reducing social inequality in a Swedish cohort study after their health care reform in 2008 20. In a French cohort, prevalence of need for dental care was higher among participants of low socio-economic status. In that study, income level and national origin were more strongly associated with need for dental care than insurance cover level. Although the findings of that study are from a country with a different service provision context to Finland, they nevertheless confirm these factors as strong determinants21. All of the predisposing factors according to the Andersen model (that is, area of residence, gender, and education) were strong determinants of unmet treatment need. They also determined the changes in unmet treatment need. Since the regions have differences in contextual factors, such as Page 9 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy availability, the area differences might be via those, because the regions have differences in them. The regions with highest unmet treatment need have had the highest prevalence of edentulousness in the past, and their service provision has remained low16. Perceived economic troubles, living in eastern or northern Finland, male gender, dental fear, and intermediate or basic education level in 2000 led to higher prevalence of unmet treatment need in 2011. These may, again, be consequences of contextual factors that is finding service fees too high, and difficulty accessing services due to long travel distances, which are more typical in eastern and northern parts of the country. Some further changes should be implemented to target these contextual factors and the changing need for services. Similar findings to ours have been reported from a study in Sweden22 in which factors such as long-term illness and financial problems were associated with refraining from seeking dental care among adults. The pain or discomfort related to teeth or dentures need factor seemed to lead to service use, but those without this factor in 2000 more often had unmet treatment need in 2011. The persistence of unmet treatment need means that the outcome and organization of urgent care should also be examined in Finland, as suggested by a recent review23. Inequalities in Finnish oral health care use and self-rated oral health were identified in a study carried out from 2001 to 200724. In that study, reduction in pain and discomfort was greater in the more advantaged portion of the population, indicating persisting inequalities in oral health and service use. One reason for this might be that awareness of oral health care reform may also differ among different socioeconomic status groups. Variation in oral health service utilization in Europe is large, and some countries with universal health care seem to encourage the use of preventive services25. According to our findings, Andersen´s behavioral model seemed useful in identifying different determinants of unmet treatment need in oral health services. The Andersen model has also been found to be useful in previous studies26. However, the determinants of change in unmet treatment need have not been investigated in those previous studies. The high response rates in the Health 2000 Survey and the 2011 follow-up are strengths of this study. Even though the participation rates were lower in the Health 2011 Survey than the Health 2000 Survey, over 70% had participated in both surveys, which is high for longitudinal studies. Lowest participation rates were seen among the youngest men. Our longitudinal cohort included 61% of those having participated in both surveys, and this can also be regarded as very good. Loss to follow-up is nevertheless always a problem and is most likely to concern those at greater risk of Page 10 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy treatment need and non-use of services. This is the case also in our longitudinal study, which is a limitation. The weights provided by the survey were used to correct it, but the findings may be affected by recall bias19. The data were weighted based on age, gender, living area, and mother tongue to form a nationally representative data set of adults Finns. Since the weights were based on several variables, and not used to create comparable groups, but to form a nationally representative data set, using on of those as an independent variable did not harm our results but allowed us to see the differences according to the university hospital districts. The longitudinal study design is a strength, and the statistical approaches allow us to clearly point out the main findings and to draw conclusions on change in unmet treatment need and the determinants of it. Some differences in study methods and the health care systems make comparison with findings from other countries difficult, which is a limitation. The measurements used are well established and widely used in population studies, although most of those studies have been cross-sectional. The measurement of unmet treatment need may differ among studies and underestimate the need for services. While differences in defining unmet treatment need exist, the 12-month reference period seems to be widely used .11,27 Unmet need, so defined, has been captured in international studies such as the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement, the European Union Survey of Income and Living Conditions, and the WHO Study on global ageing and adult health, SAGE9,28 The equal timelines are a strength in our study. To further examine and understand the factors leading to unmet treatment need, the different time periods between check-ups and visits and reasons for unmet need could be examined especially in Finland, where the individual recall intervals have been recommended since 1990´s. Attention to co-occurring risk factors for poor access to needed care should be given in order to reduce disparities among populations.28 Our findings are important in understanding the interplay between service utilization and perceived oral health. The findings offer new information for planning the supply of services. Unmet treatment need is very common among certain groups of adult Finns. Subsidized care should be able to target resources at those who need and benefit the most. Using simple and easy questionnaires within other sections of social and healthcare, asking about the need for oral health services along with relevant background questions, might help in targeting resources to those at risk and reduce unmet oral health treatment need. Page 11 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Health 2000 and Health 2011 Surveys were organized by the Finnish National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) and partly supported by the Finnish Dental Society Apollonia and the Finnish Dental Association. ET-S acknowledges a personal grant from the Finnish Dental Society Apollonia. The authors declare no potential conflict of interest with respect to the authorship or publication of this article. References 1. Andersen R. National Health Surveys and the Behavioral Model of Health Services Use. Med Care 2008;46:647-658. 2. Baker SR. Applying Andersen´s behavioural model to oral health: what are the contextual factors shaping perceived oral health outcomes? Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2009;37:485-494. 3. Marshman Z, Porritt J, Dyer T, Wyborn C, Godson J, Baker S. What influences the use of dental services by adults in the UK? Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2012;40:306-314. 4. Åström A, Ekbäck G, Nasir E, Ordell S, Unell L. Use of dental services throughout middle and early old ages: a prospective cohort study. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2013;41:30-39. 5. http://www.finlex.fi/en/ (Oct 25, 2019) 6. Torppa-Saarinen E, Suominen AL, Lahti S, Tolvanen M. Longitudinal pathways between perceived oral health and regular service use of adult Finns. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 2019;47:347-380. 7. Torppa-Saarinen E, Tolvanen M, Suominen AL, Lahti S. Changes in perceived oral health in a longitudinal population-based study. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2018;46:569-579. 8. Reda SF, Reda SM, Thomson WM, Schwendicke F. Inequality in Utilization of Dental Services: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Am J Public Health 2018;108:e1-e7. 9. Allin S, Masseria C. Unmet need as an indicator of health care access. Eurohealth Vol 15 No 3 10. Sibley L, Glazier RH. Reasons for self-reported Unmet Healthcare Needs in Canada: A Population-Based Provincial Comparison Health Policy 20009;5:87-101 11. Gulliford M, Figueroa-Munoz J, Morgan M, Huges D, Gibson B, Beech R, Hudson, M. What does ´access to health care´ mean? J Health Serv Res Policy 2002; 7(3):186-8 12. Sanmartin C, Houle C, Tremblay S, Berthelot JM. Changes in unmet health care needs. Health Rep 2002; 13: 15-21. Page 12 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy 13. Ghafari M, Bahadivand-Chegini, S, Nadi T, Doosti-Irani A. The global prevalence of dental healthcare needs and unmet dental needs among adolescents: a systematic review and meta- analysis. Epidemiol Health 2019; 41: e2019046. 14. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database/population and social conditions/Health/Health care/Unmet needs for health care/self-reported unmet needs for dental examination 15. Liinavuori A, Tolvanen M, Pohjola V, Lahti S. Longitudinal interrelationships between dental fear and dental attendance among adult Finns in 2000-2011. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2019 DOI: 10.1111/cdoe.12458 16. Suominen-Taipale L, Nordblad A, Vehkalahti M, Aromaa A, eds. Oral Health in the Finnish Adult Population, Health 2000 Survey. Helsinki:National Public Health Institute;2008. 17. Koskinen S, Lindqvist A, Ristiluoma N, eds. Terveys, toimintakyky ja hyvinvointi Suomessa 2011.Helsinki:THL;2012 18. Lundqvist A, Mäki-Opas T, eds. The Health 2011 Survey – Methods.Helsinki:THL;2016 19. Härkänen T, Karvanen J, Tolonen H, Lehtonen R, Djerf K, Juntunen T, Koskinen S. Systematic handling of missing data in complex study designs experiences from the Health 2000 and 2011 Surveys. J Appl Stat 2016;43:2772-2790. 20. Molarius A, Engström S, Flink H, Simonsson B, Tegelberg Å. Socioeconomic differences in self-rated oral health and dental care utilization after the dental care reform in 2008 in Sweden. BMC Oral health 2014;14:134. 21. Trohel G, Bertaud-Gounot V, Soler M, Chauvin P, Grimaud O. Socio-Economic Determinants of the Need for Dental Care in Adults. PLoS ONE 2016;11:e0158842. 22. Berglund E, Westerling R, Lytsy P. Social and health-related factors associated with refraining from seeking dental care: A cross-sectional population study Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2017:45 258-265. 23. Worsley DJ, Robinson PG, Marshman Z. Access to urgent dental care: a scoping review. Community Dent Health 2017;34:19-26. 24. Raittio E, Kiiskinen U, Helminen S, Aromaa A, Suominen AL. Income-related inequality and inequity in the use of dental services in Finland after a major subsidization reform. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2015;43:240-254 25. Listl S, Moran V, Maurer J, Faggion CM Jr. Dental service utilization by Europeans aged 50 plus. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2012;40:164-174. 26. Lundegren N, Axtelius B, Isberg PE, Åkerman S. Analysis of the perceived oral treatment need using Andersen´s behavioural model. Community Dent Health 2013 Jun;30:102-107. Page 13 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy 27. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Unmet health care needs statistics (Oct. 25, 2019) 28. Shi L, Stevens GD. Vulnerability and unmet health care needs. The influence of multiple risk factors. J Gen Intern Med. 2005;20(2):148–154. Page 14 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy Table 1. Baseline sociodemographic characteristics of interviewed dentate participants who were born in 1970 and answered in questions on perceived oral health and service use in the Health 2000 Survey (n=5648) according to follow-up status in the Health 2011 Survey. Lost to follow-up: participated in 2000 but not in 2011. Followed up: participated in both surveys. Lost to follow-up n=1,810 Followed-up n=3,838 % (n) p-value* Women 45.2 (874) 52.9 (2,110) <0.000 Born 1956-70 33.4 (595) 40.6 (1,599) 1946-55 24.2 (404) 30.4 (1,146) -1945 42.4 (811) 29.0 (1,093) Education (missing n=62) <0.001 Basic 46.1 (835) 28.0 (1,056) Intermediate 32.7 (563) 35.9 (1,364) Higher 21.2 (376) 36.1 (1,392) Area of residence 0.021 Southern 35.4 (624) 34.0 (1,279) Western 13.5 (254) 14.2 (560) Central 24.5 (433) 21.9 (816) Eastern 15.8 (294) 16.7 (646) Northern 10.9 (204) 13.1 (537) Unmet treatment need * 30.9 (540) 25.3 (969) < 0.001 Those who reported self-assessed treatment need but had not visited a dentist during the previous 12 months. Page 15 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy Table 2. Unmet treatment need (%) in 2000 or 2011 by sociodemographic characteristics determined at baseline. Unmet treatment need % In neither year Only in 2000 Only in 2011 In both years p All 63 17 12 8 Gender Male 58 19 13 10 <0.001 Female 66 16 11 7 1956-70 59 19 12 10 <0.001 1946-55 60 19 11 10 Born -1945 69 13 11 7 Education Basic 62 17 11 9 <0.001 Intermediate 59 19 13 9 Higher 67 16 12 5 Area Southern 63 17 12 8 <0.001 of Western 68 16 10 6 residence Central 69 14 9 8 in Finland Eastern 58 20 12 10 Northern 54 18 17 11 Prevalence of unmet treatment need in year x is the sum of ‘only in x’+ ‘in both years’. p-value Χ2-test Page 16 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy Table 3. Unmet treatment need (%) in 2000 and 2011 by background and health-related variables. Unmet treatment need % In neither year Only in 2000 Only in 2011 In both years p Gender Male 43 50 50 56 <0.001 Self-perceived health in 2000 Poor 28 32 28 34 0.123 Pain or discomfort In 2000 37 23 40 31 <0.001 related to teeth or dentures In 2011 36 38 27 27 0.001 Poor subjective oral health In 2000 22 52 26 68 <0.001 In 2011 20 23 39 54 <0.001 Perceived Very good 19 18 15 15 0.001 economic situation Good 45 41 44 36 in 2000 Poor 36 41 42 50 Perceived Very good 25 23 21 12 <0.001 economic situation Good 45 48 42 51 in 2011 Poor 30 30 37 37 Dental No 64 50 62 49 <0.001 fear Somewhat 29 34 31 34 in 2000 Very 7 17 7 17 Dental No 69 64 62 57 <0.001 fear Somewhat 27 29 30 30 in 2011 Very 4 7 8 14 p-value Χ2-test Page 17 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy Table 4. Unmet treatment need by subjective oral health between 2000 and 2011. P-values <0.001 Unmet treatment need % Subjective oral health In neither years Only in 2000 Only in 2011 In both years ALL Good in both years 69 47 55 29 Poor only in 2000 12 31 9 20 Poor only in 2011 10 6 23 11 Poor in both years 9 16 13 40 MALES Good in both years 66 42 49 25 Poor only in 2000 12 31 9 17 Poor only in 2011 12 7 25 11 Poor in both years 10 20 17 47 FEMALES Good in both years 70 53 60 34 Poor only in 2000 13 31 9 23 Poor only in 2011 9 5 21 12 Poor in both years 8 11 10 31 Page 18 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 M anuscript Copy Table 5. Logistic regression model for change in unmet treatment need according to enabling, predisposing and need variables at baseline. Model 1a Model 2b OR 95% CI p OR 95% CI p Male gender 0.88 0.64–1.19 0.40 1.32 1.07–1.64 0.01 Poor subjective oral health (ref=Good) 0.53 0.39–0.73 <0.01 1.05 0.81–1.36 0.74 Pain or discomfort related to teeth or dentures (ref=No) 0.91 0.65–1.26 0.56 1.01 0.81–1.25 0.96 Area of residence (ref=Southern Finland) Western 1.13 0.69–1.85 0.63 0.82 0.58–1.15 0.25 Central 0.90 0.60–1.36 0.62 0.72 0.53–0.98 0.04 Eastern 0.96 0.64–1.45 0.85 1.19 0.88–1.62 0.26 Northern 0.83 0.54–1.30 0.42 1.54 1.13–2.09 0.01 Age cohort (ref=1956-1970) 1946-1955 0.86 0.58–1.29 0.47 0.71 0.54–0.92 0.01 -1945 0.70 0.46–1.04 0.08 0.66 0.50–0.87 <0.01 Education (ref=Higher) Intermediate 0.71 0.49–1.02 0.06 0.92 0.71–1.19 0.54 Basic 0.61 0.41–0.93 0.02 1.28 0.97–1.70 0.09 Dental fear (ref=No) Somewhat 1.07 0.77–1.49 0.67 1.17 0.92–1.47 0.20 Very 1.29 0.84–2.00 0.25 1.02 0.66–1.57 0.93 Perceived economic situation (ref=Good) Poor 0.71 0.51–0.98 0.04 1.14 0.91–1.44 0.27 Very good 0.82 0.53–1.27 0.38 0.83 0.61–1.13 0.23 a Model 1: improvement=having unmet treatment need in 2000 but not in 2011. b Model 2: worsening= no unmet treatment need in 2000 but having it in 2011. Page 19 of 18 Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology - manuscript copy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60