Interpretation of Futures Knowledge for Corporate Strategy Development
Heikkinen, Tomi (2021-01-12)
Interpretation of Futures Knowledge for Corporate Strategy Development
(12.01.2021)
Julkaisu on tekijänoikeussäännösten alainen. Teosta voi lukea ja tulostaa henkilökohtaista käyttöä varten. Käyttö kaupallisiin tarkoituksiin on kielletty.
avoin
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on:
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe202102094178
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe202102094178
Tiivistelmä
Foresight in corporate contexts includes generating futures knowledge (FK) – understanding of possible, probable and preferable futures of the macro and micro environments of the company. But how do foresight experts interpret the effects of external trends and phenomena to corporate strategies? How do they translate to executives what change in the operating environment the organization means for the business and its future, and why does it happen as it does? These are the questions I aimed to study in this thesis. The practice of futures knowledge interpretation (FKI) is not examined in-depth
in the field of futures studies, even though this is a crucial part of applying foresight and ensuring it is valuable to companies. Prior research, expert articles and theoretical papers offer piecemeal advice on best-practices, tools and approaches. In addition to the practice, there exists a gap in understanding the capability of FKI.
To help bridge these gaps and to draw a more holistic picture of how FKI is made and what impacts its success, I reviewed multiple different academic studies, research papers and books by experts. As my primary research, I interviewed in-depth ten experienced Finnish foresight practitioners. After summarizing their input and combining it with relevant prior research results, I had another round of talks with eight of the interviewees to validate the outcomes.
The study produced a set of core characteristics of FKI, that describe what it is functionally and ideally as an activity. FKI can be understood as ’disciplined imagination’, synthesizing experience, knowledge, analytical frameworks, cognitive ability for systemic and logical thinking, and intuition. Here, interpreters use tools that both increase creativity in making novel connections between the external futures and the organization’s strategy and assist in structured analysis of said connections. In addition, I identified several organizational, personal and input-related factors that impact the success of FKI as part of strategizing. Finally, I also suggest an initial description of the ideal capabilities, expertise and traits of interpreters.
in the field of futures studies, even though this is a crucial part of applying foresight and ensuring it is valuable to companies. Prior research, expert articles and theoretical papers offer piecemeal advice on best-practices, tools and approaches. In addition to the practice, there exists a gap in understanding the capability of FKI.
To help bridge these gaps and to draw a more holistic picture of how FKI is made and what impacts its success, I reviewed multiple different academic studies, research papers and books by experts. As my primary research, I interviewed in-depth ten experienced Finnish foresight practitioners. After summarizing their input and combining it with relevant prior research results, I had another round of talks with eight of the interviewees to validate the outcomes.
The study produced a set of core characteristics of FKI, that describe what it is functionally and ideally as an activity. FKI can be understood as ’disciplined imagination’, synthesizing experience, knowledge, analytical frameworks, cognitive ability for systemic and logical thinking, and intuition. Here, interpreters use tools that both increase creativity in making novel connections between the external futures and the organization’s strategy and assist in structured analysis of said connections. In addition, I identified several organizational, personal and input-related factors that impact the success of FKI as part of strategizing. Finally, I also suggest an initial description of the ideal capabilities, expertise and traits of interpreters.