Towards a methodological framework for a sustainable intelligence system on uncertainties (Presentation at the Eu-SPRI 10th Anniversary Conference 2021)
Kaivo-oja Jari; Popper Rafael; Ahlqvist Toni
This paper proposes a Methodological Framework for a Sustainable Intelligence System on Uncertainties (SISU). While there is plenty of literature on frameworks and methodologies for foresight and futures studies, as well as a myriad of projects and initiatives to anticipate and recommend wide ranging futures, there have been limited efforts to develop a framework for the assessment and management of highly uncertain “critical issues” such as “catastrophes”, “wild cards” and “weak signals”. There is a need to foster a novel methodological framework for uncertainty sensemaking in the decision-making contexts of nation-states.The proposed methodological framework aims at tackling these kinds of complex flows of uncertain events. The methodological framework aims at interconnecting highly uncertain knowledge on global and local critical issues (drivers, barriers, opportunities, threats) and devise ways of systematically assessing their level of uncertainty in terms of importance, impact and interpretation would support early action for sustainable growth and wellbeing of our societies.
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