The probabilistic solar particle event forecasting (PROSPER) model
Paassilta Miikka; Raukunen Osku; Jiggens Piers; Vainio Rami; Aran Angels; Papaioannou Athanasios; Mallios Sotirios A; Dierckxsens Mark; Anastasiadis Anastasios
The probabilistic solar particle event forecasting (PROSPER) model
Paassilta Miikka
Raukunen Osku
Jiggens Piers
Vainio Rami
Aran Angels
Papaioannou Athanasios
Mallios Sotirios A
Dierckxsens Mark
Anastasiadis Anastasios
EDP SCIENCES S A
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on:
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2022091258475
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2022091258475
Tiivistelmä
The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e., E > 10, > 30, and > 100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), coronal mass ejections (width, speed), and combinations of both. Herein the PROSPER model methodology for deriving the SEP event forecasts is described, and the validation of the model, based on archived data, is presented for a set of case studies. The PROSPER model has been incorporated into the new operational advanced solar particle event casting system (ASPECS) tool to provide nowcasting (short term forecasting) of SEP events as part of ESA's future SEP advanced warning system (SAWS). ASPECS also provides the capability to interrogate PROSPER for historical cases via a run-on-demand functionality.
Kokoelmat
- Rinnakkaistallenteet [19207]