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Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Matthysen E; Visser ME; Fickel J; Aviles JM; Reed T; Hansson B; Adriaensen F; Eeva T; Sheldon B; Dhondt AA; Beissinger SR; Thonicke K; Ahola MP; Hassall C; Merila J; Arcese P; Charmantier A; Balbontin J; Rodel MO; Joshi J; Tarwater CE; Mihoub JB; Teplitsky C; Kharouba H; Tarka M; Poisbleau M; Pilard P; Hasselquist D; Harris M; Goodenough AE; Fossoy F; Scott D; Kusano T; Kramer-Schadt S; Radchuk V; Molina-Morales M; Moksnes A; Stokke BG; de Lope F; Clobert J; van de Pol M; Thorley J; Moller AP; Martinez JG; Senar JC; Parejo D; Stefanescu C; Mills JA; Dingemanse NJ; Rousset F; Hickler T; Borras A; Dobson FS; Courtiol A; Janzen F; Ozgul A; Berg KS; Doi H; Adamik P; Dehnhard N; Burthe S; Wilting A; Filella I; Hall SJG; Tryjanowski P

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Matthysen E
Visser ME
Fickel J
Aviles JM
Reed T
Hansson B
Adriaensen F
Eeva T
Sheldon B
Dhondt AA
Beissinger SR
Thonicke K
Ahola MP
Hassall C
Merila J
Arcese P
Charmantier A
Balbontin J
Rodel MO
Joshi J
Tarwater CE
Mihoub JB
Teplitsky C
Kharouba H
Tarka M
Poisbleau M
Pilard P
Hasselquist D
Harris M
Goodenough AE
Fossoy F
Scott D
Kusano T
Kramer-Schadt S
Radchuk V
Molina-Morales M
Moksnes A
Stokke BG
de Lope F
Clobert J
van de Pol M
Thorley J
Moller AP
Martinez JG
Senar JC
Parejo D
Stefanescu C
Mills JA
Dingemanse NJ
Rousset F
Hickler T
Borras A
Dobson FS
Courtiol A
Janzen F
Ozgul A
Berg KS
Doi H
Adamik P
Dehnhard N
Burthe S
Wilting A
Filella I
Hall SJG
Tryjanowski P
Katso/Avaa
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NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4
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Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on:
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe2021042823506
Tiivistelmä
Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.
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