Trends in Cardiometabolic and Cancer Multimorbidity Prevalence and Its Risk With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in U.S. Adults: Prospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Several prospective cohort studies have assessed the association between multimorbidity and all-cause mortality, but the findings have been inconsistent. In addition, limited studies have assessed the association between multimorbidity and cause-specific mortality. In this study, we used the population based cohort study of National Health Interview Survey (1997-2014) with linkage to the National Death Index records to 31 December 2015 to examine the trends in prevalence of multimorbidity from 1997 to 2014, and its association with the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the U.S. population. A total of 372,566 adults aged 30-84 years were included in this study. From 1997 to 2014, the age-standardized prevalence of specific chronic condition and multimorbidity increased significantly (P < 0.0001). During a median follow-up of 9.0 years, 50,309 of 372,566 participants died from all causes, of which 11,132 (22.1%) died from CVD and 13,170 (26.2%) died from cancer. Compared with participants without the above-mentioned chronic conditions, those with 1, 2, 3, and >= 4 of chronic conditions had 1.41 (1.37-1.45), 1.94 (1.88-2.00), 2.64 (2.54-2.75), and 3.68 (3.46-3.91) higher risk of all-cause mortality after adjustment for important covariates. Similarly, a higher risk of CVD-specific and cancer-specific mortality was observed as the number of chronic conditions increased, with the observed risk stronger for CVD-mortality compared with cancer-specific mortality. Given the prevalence of multimorbidity tended to increase from 1997 to 2014, our data suggest effective prevention and intervention programs are necessary to limit the increased mortality risk associated with multimorbidity.