The anatomy of plausible futures in policy processes: Comparing the cases of data protection and comprehensive security

Abstract

<p>Due to rapid change and wicked policy problems, anticipatory policymaking is increasingly important. In addition to methods for producing foresight knowledge, tools are needed to make sense of the increasing amounts of future-oriented argumentation. This article presents a comparative analysis of anticipatory argumentation in two fields: the EU data protection reform and the Finnish concept for comprehensive security. A three-layer heuristic framework is presented for qualitative analysis of statements on plausible futures. The first layer consists of specific expectations regarding the future. The second layer is the generic anticipatory storyline. The third layer consists of the underlying futures consciousness. The data protection case presents an institutional reform narrative with short time perspective and relatively high agency, while the comprehensive security case presents a crisis narrative based on a contingency planning orientation with long time perspective, relatively developed systems perception and relatively low agency. In policy foresight with high uncertainty and high aspirations of agency, reflexivity and ethical responsibility are crucial components of foresight. This article promotes these by providing a tool for structuring anticipatory assumptions. The tool can be used for studying policy documents or during the policy process to craft more rigorous future-oriented policies.<br /></p>