Delphi Participant as an Ancestor: Introducing the Ubuntu Intergenerational Primer for Mitigating Future Discounting Bias in Southern Africa Collectivist Culture

Abstract

This paper introduces the Ubuntu Intergenerational Primer (UIP), a culturally grounded cognitive debiasing intervention designed to mitigate future discounting bias among Real-Time Delphi (RTD) participants in Southern Africa. Learning from prior research engagements and informed by the region's cultural settings, we innovated around the Rip Van Winkle (RVW) technique to produce a more contextually appropriate debiasing tool. In contrast to the RVW individualistic orientation, the UIP situates the Delphi participant within the collectivist Ubuntu-Intergenerational relationship. The tool positions a Delphi participant as an ancestor fielding questions about the future to a hypothetical future grandchild living in 2070. Implemented as a pre-survey cognitive priming exercise, the UIP preceded the main RTD survey that explored the futures of cultured meat in Southern Africa by 2070. The RTD data from 35 participants (n = 35) were analyzed through the Social Practice Theory (SPT) lens. The findings suggest that the UIP functioned as a cognitive scaffold that extended participant's temporal horizons and hence reduced future discounting bias. From the SPT perspective, the primer influenced the meanings associated with cultured meat more than the materials and competencies as enquiries on legacy, responsibility and obligations to future generations dominate. However, while the primer appeared to mitigate future discounting, it may also have simultaneously introduced kinship and legacy biases by directing focus towards imagined descendants. The study contributes methodologically to futures studies by demonstrating how culturally embedded intergenerational cognitive scaffolding deepens engagement with long-term futures, contextually to Southern Africa. Overall, the findings suggest that UIP offers a promising mechanism for enriching participatory foresight while recommending some further experimental validation.