POTENTIAL OF CIRCULAR ECONOMY TO SAVE THE BALTIC SEA : A Morphological Analysis

Abstract

Ecological status of the Baltic Sea has been a topic of political debate for decades. Numerous programs, strategies and commitments have been conducted in order to reduce eutrophication. Although decreasing the amount of nutrient flows causing eutrophication has, to some extent, been successful, the sea is still suffering from eutrophication.

Eutrophication is mainly caused by nitrogen and phosphorus. They are important and valuable nutrients in agriculture, but cause trouble when ending into waters. If these nutrients were to rotate more effectively, as in the ideal of circular economy, both the farmers and the Baltic Sea would benefit.

Technologies for more effective recycling of nutrients already exist. The purpose of this thesis is to ex-amine what kind of opportunities international policies linked to circular economy could have to reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea.

External load caused over the past few decades will continue affecting the state of the Baltic Sea for some time. Recovery of the waters can take decades, and the positive effects of reducing nutrient input will be shown in the measurement results only with a delay. Therefore, there are good reasons to approach protection of the Baltic Sea from a longer-term perspective.

For this thesis, two Futures studies research methods have been used together. A general view of the topic and the variables affecting it was created through horizon scanning. Four alternative future scenarios were formed through a morphological analysis.

Reducing eutrophication is a key objective in protection of the Baltic Sea. International political cooperation is vital in achieving this goal. As saving the Baltic Sea requires long-term commitment, future-oriented perspectives are desirable as tools supporting decision-making regarding to topic.