Surfing the Sixth Wave : Exploring the next 40 years of global change

Abstract

This is the first report published for the project The 6th Wave and Systemic Innovations for Finland: Success Factors for Years 2010–2050 (6th WAVE). In it we present the Kondratieff long cycle theory (K-Wave for short) as a framework for anticipating the medium to long term future (2010–2050), with regard to current megatrends and drivers of change as well as potential game changers for the next wave of development. The report comprises the first results of our theoretical work, based on a comprehensive literature review of previous K-wave studies, and an analysis of key technologies and societal issues we believe act as catalysts for the coming paradigm shift in economies and societies. The potential implications of these factors for Finland are explored in the context of established Finnish industries and emerging new fields, taking into account the technological and societal trends that pose challenges for the continuation of the status quo.