Turning Point or Plateau? The Alternative for Germany at a Crossroads after the 2025 Election

Abstract

<p>This article examines the Alternative for Germany's (AfD) position following the 2025 federal election, considering whether the party is entering a stage of decline, sustaining its previous support, or moving toward greater ascendancy. The analysis assesses changes in voter demographics, regional dynamics, and issue salience to identify patterns of continuity or transformation in the party's base. We also define potential future issues, including continued dissatisfaction with the previous Ampel coalition and the grand coalition that replaced it, backlash against the end of the debt brake, and the perceived weakness of Friedrich Merz as a leader. In light of recent efforts to classify the AfD as an extremist party, the article evaluates how the party's evolving strategy and public perception may influence its capacity to shape party competition and national policymaking. Finally, it explores whether the AfD's post-2025 trajectory signals a tipping point in the normalization of far-right politics in Germany or a plateau in its influence, with broader implications for democratic stability in advanced democracies.<br></p>