Forecasting maritime logistics costs, will the low oil price remain?

Abstract

<p>Reliable forecasting of elements that have an impact on business processes generally is important and certainly supports success in both industries and society. The aim of this paper is to estimate and present impacts that low oil price has on maritime fuel costs, as well as how this influences the economy of an export industry. Historically, forecasting the relevant supply chain factors accurately has been a challenge for freight owners and logistics service providers. Bunker prices represent important cost factors, and a variety of parameters influence them, including ship emission regulations, which the logistics actors should take into account continuously. Researchers have scantily examined this topic in previous journals and discussions. Our simulations highlighted that all markets are rather unique because of different logistics routes, sold products and invoice prices. Nevertheless, the gross margins of export would seem to improve clearly, if bunker prices dropped 80 percent. Transport researchers should be alert to sudden changes in oil prices, and try to reveal their future developments and the impacts they cause.</p><div><br /></div>