Unemployment and separation: Evidence from five European countries

Since the 1970s, several European countries have experienced high union dissolution risk

as well as high unemployment rates. The extent to which adverse economic conditions are

associated with union instability is still unknown. This study explores the relationship

between both individual and aggregate unemployment and union dissolution risk in five

European countries before the recent economic crisis. Using rich longitudinal data from

Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, and Italy, the empirical analysis, based on discrete-

time event history models, shows that male unemployment consistently increases the risk

of union dissolution. While a strong association is observed between male unemployment

and separation at the micro level, no association is found between male unemployment

and union dissolution at the macro level. The results for female unemployment are

mixed, and the size of the impact of female unemployment is smaller in magnitude than

that of male unemployment. In Germany and Italy, where until very recently work has

been less compatible with family life than in other countries, female unemployment is not

significantly associated with union dissolution