Views into urban housing and infrastructure in 2040

Abstract

The thesis aims to offer views into the futures of urban housing and infrastructure, reaching its timescale to the year 2040. Horizon scanning is used to find a collection of phenomena potentially impacting cities worldwide. Some transition path possibilities are introduced and speculated, but specific trajectories are not suggested, the main focus is on information gathering and analysis preparing the way for case-specific examinations. The horizon scanning phase detects a variety of different future signs. Therefore, the usage of signs, signals and phenomena is clarified and compared with futures studies literature. Urban transition possibilities are discussed within a multi-level perspective framework identifying the role of landscape-level pressures, regime structures and niche innovations. Transition studies literature is used to show the potential of results and to contextualise findings. In total, 229 disruptive phenomena are gathered, and then further compared to the existing Futures Platform phenomena database, sorted, analysed and evaluated by an expert panel survey. Finally, 64 housing-related urban phenomena are presented in ten driver categories indicating wider changes in the urban development context. Without aiming to reveal or build any determinate futures, the study offers conversational proposals, and thus informational ingredients for different and locally possible urban futures.