Genomic prediction of relapse in recipients of allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Abstract

<p>Allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation currently represents the primary potentially curative treatment for cancers of the blood and bone marrow. While relapse occurs in approximately 30% of patients, few risk-modifying genetic variants have been identified. The present study evaluates the predictive potential of patient genetics on relapse risk in a genome-wide manner. We studied 151 graft recipients with HLA-matched sibling donors by sequencing the whole-exome, active immunoregulatory regions, and the full MHC region. To assess the predictive capability and contributions of SNPs and INDELs, we employed machine learning and a feature selection approach in a cross-validation framework to discover the most informative variants while controlling against overfitting. Our results show that germline genetic polymorphisms in patients entail a significant contribution to relapse risk, as judged by the predictive performance of the model (AUC = 0.72 [95% CI: 0.63–0.81]). Furthermore, the top contributing variants were predictive in two independent replication cohorts (<i>n</i> = 258 and <i>n</i> = 125) from the same population. The results can help elucidate relapse mechanisms and suggest novel therapeutic targets. A computational genomic model could provide a step toward individualized prognostic risk assessment, particularly when accompanied by other data modalities.</p>