Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption

Abstract

<h2>Abstract</h2><div><p><a title="Learn more about Climate Change" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/climate-change"><u>Climate change</u></a> and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for <a title="Learn more about energy policy" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/energy-policy"><u>energy policy</u></a> and electricity <a title="Learn more about planning system" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/planning-system"><u>system planning</u></a>. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017–2030 in <a title="Learn more about electricity consumption" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/electricity-consumption"><u>electricity consumption</u></a> and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.<br /></p></div>