Handbook on maritime hybrid threats: 10 Scenarios and Legal Scans

It has become evident that disturbances in shipping may have immediate and/or long-term effects leading to serious economic and political consequences. Under suitable conditions, the necessity of such disturbances can be quite easily motivated by proclaimed legitimate security concerns. That makes Sea Lines a potential instrument in Hybrid Conflicts.

Since March 2018, Hybrid CoE/COI VR has taken a closer look at the Hybrid Threats vs. Sea Lines of Communication in a workstrand consisting of six events. During the process, it was found useful to propose a taxonomy of maritime hybrid threats that could be used to support various approaches, such as policy discussions aiming at national or EU/NATO-level responses, planning of operational level exercises as well as setting requirements for technologies.

This handbook establishes a taxonomy of ten potential scenarios that were gradually developed and proof-tested during the workstrands. The Hybrid CoE Participating States advocate a strict adherence to international rules and norms. They must necessarily observe the legal framework in political or operational responses to what might be regarded as hybrid threats emerging at sea. Failing that, the consequences might be unintentional and harsh. Sometimes the events may require a rapid reaction, and decision-makers or maritime operators need to base their actions on limited information. In this handbook, ten scenarios are presented, each followed by a short legal analysis. This allows the reader to immediately get on the right track as regards relevant parts of Law of the Sea and International Humanitarian Law.