Trends of Precipitation and Temperature in Morogoro Region in Tanzania

Abstract

Climate changes can seriously affect the environment and rural communities, water availability, health, food security, biodiversity, and agricultural production. Farmers in Africa who depend on rain to grow crops are already recognizing the effects of changing climate. Weather is essential to farmers' for their decision-making.

The present study analysed spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Morogoro Region by using available climate data from meteorological agencies. The weather data was analysed during the period of 1991–2015 for the mean monthly precipitation and temperature and predicted the monthly precipitation and temperature by using the time series analysis. The result showed that climate is highly variable from arid to humid. At the same time, the trend line of mean monthly showed a slightly decreasing linear trend in precipitation and an increase in temperature. The forecast values of the rain and temperature until 2025 by the decomposition method with the multiplicative model showed that precipitation in May – October will be low. Moreover, the seasonal indices predict that precipitation in those months will be lower than the previous normal level. The probable future trends should be carefully considered to help farmers in selecting proper strategies in their farms.

  Corresponding author: Dayoub, M.; Email: modayo@utu.fi